A resource for folks living in or moving to Los Gatos, by Mary Pope-Handy

Absorption Rate

Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after we ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the opposite could be true, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?

Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined

The overall MOI still shows a clear, and fairly stable, sellers market. The best movement is still in the low- to mid-range price points, mainly from $1-$3 million. Demand is low, but there’s still movement going all the way up the chart and into the luxury sector.

So what does it all mean? That Los Gatos remains in a sellers market, that demand is proving to be steady, especially throughout the middle and upper ranges with slower movement in the lowest and higher-end markets.

Here is the chart from last month for comparison:

 

All of Los Gatos 95030 and 95032, both high school districts overall, it’s a clear seller’s market.

The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only

Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say). Continue reading

How’s The Los Gatos Real Estate Market Doing Now?

March 06, 2013

The market is heating up in Los Gatos as of about 4 weeks ago with new sales commenced.  These will not be reflected in the closed sales until early March, so please take the ‘solds’ info below with a grain of salt and keep the changed market conditions in mind!

Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032), including county pockets, which closed in the month of February 2013. The median price is down both month over month and also year over year.  It has been softer in Los Gatos than in many Silicon Valley communities right now.

Trends At a Glance Feb 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,435,000 $1,555,000 (-7.7%) $1,442,500 (-0.5%)
Average Price $1,506,570 $1,704,850 (-11.6%) $2,320,030 (-35.1%)
No. of Sales 19 13 (+46.2%) 16 (+18.8%)
Pending Properties 36 18 (+100.0%) 48 (-25.0%)
Foreclosures Sold 0 0 (N/A) 1 (-100.0%)
Short Sales Sold 2 0 (N/A) 1 (+100.0%)
Active Listings 60 52 (+15.4%) 86 (-30.2%)
Active Foreclosures 1 0 (N/A) 2 (-50.0%)
Active Short Sales 1 0 (N/A) 10 (-90.0%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 97.4% 99.4% (-2.0%) 94.8% (+2.7%)
Days on Market 88 34 (+160.7%) 70 (+25.3%)

Inventory is low all over – and Los Gatos is no exception, though inventory did go up a bit countywide from January 2013 to Feb 2013.  How bad is it? Off 30% from a year ago (and inventory was low then: Feb 2012 was 86, Feb 2011 was 132 available houses).

Days on market: The figure for February of 88 days on market for sold properties reflects the DOM of houses that closed in February and most likely went into contract in January, or possibly December – both of which were “cooler” times than the shift we saw take place in early February 2013.

How long have the currently available single family homes in LG been on the market?

As of this moment, in 95030 and 95032 combined there are just 76 single family homes for sale. Most haven’t been on all that long, in fact, appx 64% or 2/3 have been on the market for 60 days or less, and exactly half of the available inventory has been on the market for 1 month or less.  Let’s see the breakdown in one-month increments of the number of homes in each time bracket.:

0 – 30 days:   38 homes
31 – 60 days:  11
61 – 90 days:   4
91 – 120 days:  4
121 – 150 days: 2
151-180 days: 9
181-210 days: 1
211-240 days: 1
241-270 days: 0
271-300 days: 1
301-330 days: 1
331-365 days: 1
366 + days: 3  (oldest one almost 1500 DOM)

How long were the under contract single family homes in LG on the market?

I won’t repeat this level of detail for the Los Gatos houses which are sale pending or under contract (real estate agents: status 3 & 4), but the average days on market for those 17  pending properties is 26 and of these, only 2 were more than 30 days (1 sold with 49 DOM and another 191 DOM).  In other words, when homes sell now, they are selling faster than the DOM from the closed sales in February would reveal.  This will show up in March’s statistics next month.

Are there multiple offers in Los Gatos, and overbids?

Yes, there are some of each.  I did a spot check of the sales for the last 7 days and the last 14 days and in both cases, the average sales price was higher than the average list price.  For the last 7 days, there were 8 closed sales, 4 above list, 1 at list price and 3 below.)

Los Gatos condominium & townhouse sales (click on link for more info)

Dramatic improvement in the median and average sales price of condos and townhomes in town year over year as well as from the prior month.

Trends At a Glance Feb 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $787,500 $649,000 (+21.3%) $601,000 (+31.0%)
Average Price $708,900 $659,286 (+7.5%) $562,675 (+26.0%)
No. of Sales 10 7 (+42.9%) 8 (+25.0%)
Pending Properties 9 11 (-18.2%) 19 (-52.6%)
Foreclosures Sold 0 0 (N/A)< /span> 2 (-100.0%)
Short Sales Sold 0 0 (N/A) 1 (-100.0%)
Active Listings 9 6 (+50.0%) 24 (-62.5%)
Active Foreclosures 0 0 (N/A) 0 (N/A)
Active Short Sales 0 0 (N/A) 3 (-100.0%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 100.9% 102.1% (-1.2%) 96.1% (+5.0%)
Days on Market 10 18 (-43.9%) 63 (-83.9%)

 

The Monte Sereno real estate market

Monte Sereno houses (no condos in MS) – primarily 95030 but a smattering of 95032 also.  There are so few homes in Monte Sereno (just 4,000 residents) that the sales numbers are very easily skewed.  Disclaimers aside, here are the Monte Sereno market stats:

Trends At a Glance Feb 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,600,000 $1,813,000 (-11.7%) $0 (N/A)
Average Price $1,600,000 $2,032,670 (-21.3%) $0 (N/A)
No. of Sales 1 3 (-66.7%) 0 (N/A)
Pending Properties 7 2 (+250.0%) 0 (N/A)
Foreclosures Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 0 0 (N/A) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 9 6 (+50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Foreclosures 0 0 (N/A) (N/A)
Active Short Sales 0 0 (N/A) (N/A)
Sales Price vs. List Price 94.2% 112.0% (-15.9%) 0.0% (N/A)
Days on Market 15 42 (-64.3%) 0 (N/A)

 

 The Los Gatos Mountains real estate market trends and statistics – 95033 – houses, no condos or townhouses only – NO HOMES SOLD/CLOSED in Feb 2013, so no charts to share!

A more affordable, but beautiful, place to live is in the coastal foothills over the town of Los Gatos.  The communities there are closely affiliated with the town of Los Gatos, if distinct!  This area is always tougher to sell, and slower to appreciate. Prices here aren’t much better, and possibly worse off (depending on the area, price point etc.), than a year ago.

Altos Live Charts for Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 plus Los Gatos Mountains 95033 and Monte Sereno Real Estate

Next please enjoy the live Altos charts, which are updated automatically each week – each segment is a little different than the others (and the reports would be more diverse still if we broke these down further, by price quartile – – sign up below if you want these delivered to you via email each week).

As you can see, pricing is stronger in 95030 than in 95032.  This may be due to the schools (only a little of 95030 is in the Campbell Union High School District, but a larger portion of 95032 is).  The strong Los Gatos schools are a major driver of desireability – but not the only one.  Many people want to have the “walk to town” element, even if their kids are in private schools.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com


 

Los Gatos real estate market for May 30, 2012

May 30, 2012

Months of Inventory for the Los Gatos Real Estate Market by School District and Price Point

 The Los Gatos real estate market is “hot” overall – but not equally, and certainly not in all areas or price points!  Yesterday I crunched the numbers from my MLS to provide for you the absorption reate or months of inventory.  This figure is calculated by getting the count of active listings (not under contract – some statisticians include pending sales as well) and the sales closed in the last month and dividing them.  If there are 3 homes for sale and 1 closed in the last month, you have 3 months of inventory.  What this means is simple: if no new inventory came on the market, how long, at the current rate of sales, would it be for buyers to “absorb” the current supply of inventory?  The shorter it is, the hotter the market. Five or six months is balanced.

Group One: The more affordable homes in 95030 and 95032 in Los Gatos – up to $2 million. Where it says “infinite”, that means that homes are for sale but none sold/closed escrow in thel last 30 days.  Where it says N/A, no homes for sale or sold. Have a look:

Los Gatos, CA real estate market - absorption rate for houses for sales up to $2 million as of May 30, 2012  - Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, Sereno Group, Los Gatos

What’s hot? Up to the $1.5 million point, everything in LG is hot!  The cooling starts at $1.5 mil in the part of down with Campbell or Union Schools.  For houses “in the schools”, the market remains strong up to the $2 million mark, where it changes dramatically.

How are things for the over $2,000,000 point?

Los Gatos real estate market absorption rate for houses over $2 million May 30, 2012 - Mary Pope-Handy, Sereno Group, Los Gatos.

Over $2 million, it’s anywhere from a balanced market to impossible to sell for Los Gatos houses on the market. Homes over $2 million are tough to sell if they don’t feed to Los Gatos High School.  But even properties which have LGHS as the school of attendance are challenged to sell in the upper pricing tiers.

 

Los Gatos Real Estate Report for April 2012 Sales

Prices are up for Los Gatos real estate sales! (Click on link for full data from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report.)

Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032) which closed in the month of April.   Things are looking up!

 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,350,000 $1,260,500 (+7.1%) $1,344,000 (+0.4%)
Average Price $1,431,940 $1,405,640 (+1.9%) $1,479,120 (-3.2%)
No. of Sales 39 38 (+2.6%) 30 (+30.0%)
Pending Properties 54 53 (+1.9%) 47 (+14.9%)
Foreclosures Sold 3 2 (+50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 3 1 (+200.0%) 1 (+200.0%)
Active Listings 78 88 (-11.4%) 50 (+56.0%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 99.6% 100.1% (-0.6%) 96.7% (+2.9%)
Days on Market 36 35 (+2.4%) 61 (-41.3%)

Los Gatos condominium & townhouse sales (click on link for more info)

Improvement month over month, but year over year the numbers are still down. 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $616,000 $565,000 (+9.0%) $715,000 (-13.8%)
Average Price $596,557 $590,294 (+1.1%) $768,500 (-22.4%)
No. of Sales 11 17 (-35.3%) 5 (+120.0%)
Pending Properties 21 15 (+40.0%) 13 (+61.5%)
Foreclosures Sold 2 2 (0.0%) 1 (+100.0%)
Short Sales Sold 1 2 (-50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 11 20 (-45.0%) 40 (-72.5%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 98.1% 96.8% (+1.3%) 97.4% (+0.7%)
Days on Market 63 78 (-19.3%) 108 (-41.6%)

The Los Gatos Mountains 

Softer prices prevail in the mountains….

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $662,500 $678,000 (-2.3%) $715,000 (-7.3%)
Average Price $589,750 $651,484 (-9.5%) $683,750 (-13.7%)
No. of Sales 4 8 (-50.0%) 4 (0.0%)
Pending Properties 16 8 (+100.0%) 7 (+128.6%)
Foreclosures Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 31 32 (-3.1%) 21 (+47.6%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 91.6% 99.6% (-8.1%) 93.6% (-2.1%)
Days on Market 190 90 (+112.0%) 144 (+32.2%)

Short Sales vs Regular Sales in Los Gatos Real Estate Listings

November 16, 2010

The real estate absorption rate, or months of invenory, can vary dramatically from one part of the local Silicon Valley real estate market to the next.  Right now in Los Gatos, though, it’s fairly stable or uniform.  The months of inventory are not terribly different between sale type & hope type in town.  It’s not like that in most of San Jose or Santa Clara County!  (Reminder, conservatively, 6 months is a balanced market, more is a buyers market and less is a sellers market.)

Houses in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5.78 MOI
Condominiums and townhomes in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5 MOI

What about short sales?

Short sale houses in Los Gatos, MOI = 5.4
Short sale condos or townhouses in Los Gatos, MOI = 4.5

This is really weird to have the short sales be selling so much better than regular sales.  In Sunnyvale it’s the complete opposite!  There regular condos and townhomes are selling at the rate of 4.42 MOI but those which are short sales are a whopping 16 months!

To get data and info on the rest of Santa Clara County, please visit my Silicon Valley real estate blog, The Valley of Hearts Delight.

Monte Sereno Market at a Glance June 2010

June 20, 2010

Monte Sereno is a small city of approximately 4,000 residents.  Prices there are a little more expensive than Los Gatos, but the two areas are almost like family as they share police, schools, parks and more. 

Monte Sereno real estate market update for June 2010

Here’s a quick look at the real estate inventory (homes for sale) in Monte Sereno and the absorption rate.  There were NO short sales or bank owned homes either for sale or recently closed, so all of the numbers below reflect “regular” sales.  All together, the “months of inventory” for Monte Sereno is 9.25. That’s a very high number for the absorption rate and it indicates that it’s a strong buyer’s market in Monte Sereno.

 

Monte Sereno Homes for Sale, Recently Closed & Absorption Rate by Price Band

Monte Sereno, like everywhere else in Santa Clara County, varies from one location & price point to the next.  The most affordable homes are in a very different market than the most lavish luxury homes. So let’s see how it plays out if we break it down by price point.

Monte Sereno Houses List Price For Sale  Closed in last month Months of Inventory
Up to $999,999 0 0 n/a
$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 1 2 0.5
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999 12 2 6
$2,000,000 to $2,499,999 10 0 8
$2,500,000 to $2,999,999 3 0 8
$3,000,000 and up 11 0 8
       

Llike the rest of Silicon Valley, Monte Sereno has its hottest segment of the realty market at its “entry level” price range.  For this city, that means homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million.  The market cools as prices rise, until nothing seems to be closing at all and the months of inventory are “infinite”.

Pending Sales in Monte Sereno

Looking at the pending sales, though, homes are selling in higher prices.  At the moment there are six houses which are under contract in Monte Sereno. The list prices range from $1.1 million to $3.688 million.  The average list price of these properties is about $2.1 million.

Monte Sereno Houses  List Price Under Contract (sale pending)
Up to $999,999 0
$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 3
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999 1
$2,000,000 to $2,499,999 0
$2,500,000 to $2,999,999 0
$3,000,000 and up 2

While the recent  sales don’t show much activity over $2,000,000, there are two pendings between $3 mil and $4 mil in Monte Sereno, so the absorption rate will be changing as these higher priced homes close escrow.  And we see again that the majority of pendings are on the lower end of the Monte Sereno scale (expensive in any area but relatively affordable here). What seems most consistent is this: the homes most likely to sell in Monte Sereno are those priced in the most affordable ranges.   More expensive homes are selling, but the “constant” is the desireabiity of the entry level market there.

The Market is Heating Up in Los Gatos

May 10, 2009

The Los Gatos real estate market is heating up, particularly in the homes that are most affordable (and featuring Los Gatos Schools) but noticeable in many areas and price points.

Below please find a graph displaying prices and sales (median and average) for single family homes in Los Gatos.  This graph uses a 3 month moving average to level out any odd bumps in the data such as seasonal fluctuations.
 

Los Gatos Single Family Homes Market Data

(image from www.PopeHandy.ReReport.com, a subscription service of mine, and used by permission)

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) “months of inventory” in Los Gatos looks even more dramatic.  Below, find the absorption rate for not just Los Gatos, but also Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, and the average of all four:

Months of inventory for Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino and the average of all four
When looked at together, the overall trend becomes exceedingly clear that the market is changing.

Sellers, the market is better now than it’s been in many months.  If your home is not getting activity, it’s time to get it in line with the market.

Buyers, it’s still in your camp in many markets, but your advantage seems to be slipping. 

No one knows whether the market will continue along this trend or if this is just a blip in the Silicon Valley real estate market landscape.  The threat of more foreclosures throughout Santa Clara County will be the thing which can tip this one way or the other.

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market:It Isn't So Bad

January 21, 2008

Tired of hearing the doom and gloom regarding the real esate market? Most of that negative press is national news, not local news. Truly, it doesn’t impact home values in Los Gatos if prices are falling in parts of Florida, Vegas, or even in Sacramento. The local market – our town plus neighboring communities here in Silicon Valley – is the crucial one.

Things are just not that bad for home sales in Los Gatos overall.

That said, “the market” consists of several sub-markets. It’s one thing if you are trying to sell a very expensive home with an unpopular architectural style. It’s another if you’re marketing a modest or at least non-extravagent home in a good location with great schools. Still another if you have a view property…or a lot that could be split. And no matter what, overpriced just won’t work.

A view of the big picture in the Los Gatos real estate market reveals that 2006 was a lot tougher on sellers (and folks watching their equity) than 2007 was. The first three quarters of 2007 were remarkably good for single family homes, in fact. Have a look at the “months of inventory” or “absorption rate” by month for last year for single family homes. (As a point of reference, the National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months of inventory is a sellers market.)

Absorption rate for single family homes in Los Gatos (95032, 95030) in 2007

For the condo and townhome market, it was even stronger. Once again, it was a little more challenging late in the year (not an unusual pattern for any year).

Absorption rate or months of inventory for the condo and townhouse real estate market in Los Gatos for 2007 (95030, 95032)

What about now? How is the inventory of homes in Los Gatos right now?

About one house in four is selling in this area overall. That’s pretty much the case in Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Cambrian Park. In Los Gatos there are 97 single family homes available and 27 sale pending (in Saratoga it’s 61 and 17, and in Cambrian Park it’s 140 and 34).

The condo market, which was much stronger throughout 2007 than the single family market, is now cooler than the single family home market in town. As of today, January 21st, there are 26 townhouses or condominiums for sale and just 2 under contract or sale pending. (So instead of a 1 in 4 chance of selling, it’s closer to 1 in 10.) In Saratoga it’s a little better with 10 available and 3 pending. In Cambrian there are 41 “class 2” (condo/townhome) on the market and 7 which are pending sales.

Every market presents an opportunity for buyers or sellers. Where’s the best real estate opportunity in Los Gatos now?

Late in 2007, it appeared to be an ideal time to be a “move up buyer” – to sell that townhouse and to buy a single family home. Now, early in 2008, the opportunity has shifted. It is now a great time to sell that single family home and to downsize into a townhouse or condominium.

The market is always changing and the micro markets can all be different from the general trends in the town. If you’d like to discuss your home, your neighborhood, or buying and selling, please send me an email or give me a call. I’d be happy to set up a time to talk with you about your unique situation.

Mary Pope-Handy

 

Mary Pope-Handy

Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805

Selling homes in
Silicon Valley, with
special focus on
Los Gatos

and nearby areas,
including
Monte Sereno,
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Campbell,
and the San Jose areas of
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