Real Estate Market
The City of Monte Sereno is quite small, with just about 4,000 residents, so the number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small.
For that reason, the data may appear to jump around wildly compared to Los Gatos or Saratoga, which each have about 30,000 people living there. Please take all the stats with a tablespoon of salt, and be sure to view the Los Gatos housing market data to get a more accurate picture of what’s happening with Monte Sereno homes (just add a little to the price tag as homes there tend to sell for a bit more than LG properties).
Also, there are only single family, detached houses in Monte Sereno: no apartments, multi unit housing (2 – 4 plex), no duet homes (attached single family homes). That will be changing soon, however, as the old La Hacienda property (formerly an estate, then a hotel and restaurant) at Hwy 9 and Austin Way will become incorporated into Monte Sereno and condos or townhomes built there.
Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices):
Trends at a Glance from the RE Report:
Just 5 sales in August, so not a statistically useful pool of data, but a fairly typical number of sale. The sale to list price ratio fell from last month, but isup from a year ago. Days on market are far longer – signs of a cooling market. To dig a little deeper, I pulled up the 5 sales and saw that 2 of them sold for more than list price and 3 under. One of the listings sold just $5,000 over (31 days on market), and the other one – an “off market sale” (0 days on market) was about $100,000 over. For the three homes that sold under list price, the average days on market was about 2 months and the average underbid around $100,000. One of them was on just 17 days and sold within $20,000 of list price. The speed of the sale seems to correlate with the sale to list price ratio.
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$3,000,000 (-14.3%)||$3,500,000||$2,467,810 (+21.6%)|
|Average Price||$2,673,000 (-22.3%)||$3,441,670||$2,944,770 (-9.2%)|
|No. of Sales||5 (+66.7%)||3||6 (-16.7%)|
|Pending||5 (0.0%)||5||5 (0.0%)|
|Active||12 (0.0%)||12||4 (+200.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||98.6% (-4.8%)||103.5%||96.7% (+1.9%)|
|Days on Market||48 (+215.7%)||15||21 (+134.2%)|
|Days of Inventory||72 (-40.0%)||120||20 (+260.0%)|
And for the month before:
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$3,500,000 (+5.7%)||$3,312,500||$2,900,000 (+20.7%)|
|Average Price||$3,441,670 (+7.8%)||$3,191,670||$3,027,330 (+13.7%)|
|No. of Sales||3 (-50.0%)||6||6 (-50.0%)|
|Pending||5 (0.0%)||5||6 (-16.7%)|
|Active||12 (-25.0%)||16||6 (+100.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||103.5% (+1.0%)||102.5%||100.3% (+3.2%)|
|Days on Market||15 (-61.2%)||40||21 (-26.4%)|
|Days of Inventory||120 (+55.2%)||77||30 (+300.0%)|
The Los Gatos real estate market for single family homes has been slowly cooling down a little – as a whole. Part of it is the luxury tier, which moves slower than entry or mid level priced properties. When the luxury price strata swells, it can skew the numbers to look like everything is cooling down, when that may not be the case.
Months of inventory in Los Gatos: a quick look
Just now I went to the MLS and pulled the number of active single family homes in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 (72) and the number of sold and closed in the last 30 days (19) to check on the overall absorption rate or months of inventory. If we divide the active listings by the closed listings in the last 30 days, we get the months of inventory – so 72 / 19 = 3.79 months of inventory for the whole of MLS area 16 in Los Gatos. For our area, that is pretty close to balanced (4 months or so), but just a bit in the seller’s favor. In other parts of the US, balance is at around 6 months.
If we shift to viewing just houses and duet homes offered up to $2 million, it’s a very different view of the market. In this case, there are 17 active listings and 11 sold in the last 30 days, so just 1.55 months of inventory. This is the entry level price point for Los Gatos 95030 and 95032. It’s a little lower for the Los Gatos Mountains.
(I have a separate post on the Los Gatos months of inventory that I’ll update soon, breaking it down by price point and high school district to better pinpoint the individual markets within LG.)
What is selling best in LG right now?
Of the 19 closed sales in the last 30 days, 11 were under $2 million (about 58%), 5 were between $2 and $3 million, 2 between $3 and $3.6 mil, and 1 at over $6 mil. The high end price point tends to be at around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County.
For the houses under $3 mil, the average days on market was 40, the average list price was $1,958,866 and the average sale price just a little more at $1,971,431. For those transactions, the average living space square footage was 2,197 sf and average lot size 11,948 SF.
Los Gatos Trends at a Glance for 95030 & 95032
Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that will be live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices, fyi.
The real estate numbers below reflect realty data gathered the first week of the month for the past month in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full REReport here. Prices are down both year over year and month over month, and the sale to list price continues to slip while days on market rise.
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,045,500 (-12.3%)||$2,332,290||$2,230,000 (-8.3%)|
|Average Price||$2,412,780 (-3.1%)||$2,489,320||$2,699,150 (-10.6%)|
|No. of Sales||26 (-27.8%)||36||27 (-3.7%)|
|Pending||32 (+6.7%)||30||38 (-15.8%)|
|Active||73 (-3.9%)||76||61 (+19.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||98.7% (-1.5%)||100.2%||101.1% (-2.3%)|
|Days on Market||35 (+4.4%)||33||35 (-1.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||84 (+33.0%)||63||68 (+24.3%)|
Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains
The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains info market here:
Just 7 closed sales in the mountains in August, so I would not trust the general numbers that much. Better would be checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing.
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,250,000 (+29.5%)||$965,000||$997,500 (+25.3%)|
|Average Price||$1,233,210 (+35.0%)||$913,438||$955,125 (+29.1%)|
|No. of Sales||7 (-12.5%)||8||10 (-30.0%)|
|Pending||11 (+22.2%)||9||12 (-8.3%)|
|Active||43 (-4.4%)||45||44 (-2.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||97.9% (+0.9%)||97.0%||106.2% (-7.8%)|
|Days on Market||40 (-1.8%)||41||29 (+36.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||184 (+9.2%)||169||132 (+39.6%)|
My RE Report stats come out between the 5th and the 10th of each month, but I like to get a sneak peak, so crunch my own numbers some of the time. Today I wanted a window into Los Gatos real estate pricing. First, here are the average and median sale prices for the Los Gatos market in the two “in town” zip codes of 95030 and 95032 (for single family homes):
Next, the Los Gatos Mountains (MLS area 23, zip code 95033):
Additional market info to follow in just a few days!
Looking for great schools, more space, and a less suburban environment? Just beyond the borders of the Town of Los Gatos lies a collection of rural communities situated in the scenic Santa Cruz Mountains, or Coastal Range and together there are known as “The Los Gatos Mountains.” This large region sits above Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, and a bit north of there in Santa Clara County, and just over the summit and toward Scotts Valley, Soquel, and Aptos in Santa Cruz County. As the description implies, it is a sprawling area and within it there are different school districts, views, levels of sunshine, natural hazards such as earthquake faults, and amenities which can all impact housing prices and real estate market trends and the market may be very different from one segment or price point to another.
All of these areas fall under the 95033 zip code and have a Los Gatos mailing address, so they are viewed together. Don’t be confused into thinking that areas in the Los Gatos Mountains are the same as the Town of Los Gatos, though – they are quite different.
95033 Los Gatos Mountains Real Estate Market Update
Unfortunately, my usual resource, the RE Report, has no section for the Los Gatos Mountains. Instead, the analysis I have written below is based off of data collected directly from the MLS over September and to date in October.
In the month of September, 6 homes sold in the 95033 mountain area of Los Gatos. Sale price ranged from $550,000 – $1,950,000 with an average of $1,055,750. Wide ranges like this are not unusual. While lot size is usually larger than in-town properties it can also vary a great deal, as does building age and size. For instance, the highest priced home had nearly 10 times the building size of the lowest priced property. Now let’s compare this with October sales, since we are coming towards the end of the month. This time, the range of sales is between $890,000 – $1,887,500 with an average of $1,330,625. What does this show us? The range is fairly consistent. In the mountain area you can still readily find properties for under $1 million – something we are not seeing in any other Los Gatos market at the moment – but you can also find large properties with big homes selling at what would be the medium to high-end for an in-town home.
What else can we learn from the sold listings in September and October? Well, the listing price tells us a lot. In September, only one of the six homes sold for higher than list, two sold exactly at list, and three sold below list price. In October, one out of four sold above list price and the rest sold for less than listed. Inventory is taking longer to sell as well. Some homes are still selling rapidly with two selling in under a week last September, but many are taking longer; in the same month, one sold that was on market for 204 days. The average days on market for September 62 days and 45 days in October, while most of the South Bay has an average of a month or less. What does this all mean? Buyers are having an easier time in the mountain market. Listings on-market longer are receiving fewer offers, and offers under list price are more regularly being accepted. The fastest selling properties where there is greatest demand and where homes have sold over list are within a range of $1 – $1.3 million, which would be considered entry-level in the rest of town but is mid-priced here.
So what about active listings? There are currently 15 active properties on the market. The most recent listing has been on the market only 4 days, while the longest has been active for 238, with the average being 117 days on market. List price ranges from $550,000 – $5,800,000 with an average list price of $1,863,267. Another way to tell that this market is cooler than elsewhere in Silicon Valley is the number of active vs sold, which shows that there is a lower ratio of demand to inventory in the mountain market.
Although the market is noticeably cooler in the mountains than in town and many other areas around South Bay, the market here is still more active than it usually is. Buyers not wanting to deal with the stress of the strained seller’s market, or who are looking for lower-priced homes and don’t mind the drive and other special concerns with hillside properties will find the Los Gatos 95033 market to be a good option.
Mountain Market Trends by Quartile
Below is a chart taken from the October 2017 Altos Research market update. It divides properties into four price quartiles to show variances in market trend. Surprisingly, the last year has been looking a little backwards with prices rising in winter and falling in spring. This might have to do with the available inventory elsewhere, since we typically see more homes go on market around spring and inventory lessening in winter, giving buyers fewer options. The luxury market bounces around a lot because of the extreme variety of homes in that range.
Live Altos Charts
While I do not frequently update the Los Gatos Mountain market post (there are agents who specialize in the mountain market – I am not one of them, though I have sold a number of mountain homes) the charts below will always be up to date. These are live charts, regularly updated and constantly tracking sales and listings from the MLS.
The median list price of homes for sale in the Los Gatos Mountains 95033 – all price points combined:
The median list price of homes for sale in the Los Gatos Mountains 95033 – showing info by price quartile:
Average days on the market (number of days the home’s been listed for sale on the MLS), all price points combined:
Average days on the market for 95033 by pricing tier – it’s typically erratic as the amount of inventory tends to be small:
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(all data current as of 9/17/2019)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
How long will it take to sell your Los Gatos home? If you own a house in Los Gatos, 95030 or 95032, the answer is “it depends”. Naturally part of the formula will be the condition of the property and how aggressively it’s priced. The pace also will be a function of schools and price point. Generally speaking, the lower priced single family homes tend to sell the fastest (assuming that it’s priced and marketed well and doesn’t have any “issues”). That’s true in all neighborhoods and subdivisions. (The Los Gatos Mountains area, or 95033, is a different market.)
Today, let’s take a look at the Los Gatos real estate market for home sellers by pricing tier and high school district with a view toward the number of days on the market. (You can read about the ratio of actives to solds and the absorption rate at the article linked below under Related Reading.)
We’ll begin with a look at the town as a whole. For homes actively listed and not yet sold or sale pending in town, have a look at the number of properties for sale and the days on market (“DOM”) for each price point:
The average “days on market” for all homes is 70, so you might think that this is how long it will take to get your home into contract. That’s not the case, though, as some homes never sell (even in a red hot economy like ours). Others sell really fast.
What we can see, though, is that the homes in the lowest price point haven’t been on the market long – a hint that this is the market segment that is moving.
Next, let’s have a look at the part of LG 95030 & 95032 with Los Gatos High School.
Notice that the average days on market for this group is 47, not 70. Most groups have double digit days on the market. So perhaps not flying off the market, but not bad by national standards, and certainly faster than the town as a whole. It looks like the answer to “how long will it take to sell” may be improved by being “in the schools”.
How long will it take in the areas with either Westmont High or Leigh High? Overall, a much longer “days on market” are present for the active listings with 124. But the lower prices, up to $2 million, are extremely fast with the few homes in that band only being available for about a week or less.
The actively listed properties are everything available – the good as well as the not so good. If we look at pending sales, though, we’ll get an idea on how fast buyers take the best homes out of the market. Let’s check on the homes under contract now. Continue reading
Once you have visited Los Gatos – the charming architecture, the backdrop of the hills, the vibrant downtown, the great schools, and all the trees and parks – you may want to call it home. I sure did. But the town is expensive and for some it may be out of range. What if you love Los Gatos, but it’s not affordable? There are nearby areas that may work, so I’ll mention them here. They are all discussed in depth at my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog and mentioned in my Move2SiliconValley or popehandy blogs too – the links will be to any of my own sites. For people relocating to Silicon Valley especially, where “sticker shock” is a normal part of the welcome package, these other areas which are a little less pricey might be helpful.
A little further southeast than Los Gatos, the Almaden Valley is a very scenic suburb with the Santa Cruz Mountains on one side and the Santa Teresa Foothills on the other. There’s no “downtown”, however you’ll find a large shopping center with a remodeled Safeway, banks, Starbucks, etc., along Almaden Expressway. This area features the New Almaden neighborhood, which is where the area began with mercury mining operations long ago. Almaden real estate market post
On the north and northeast side of Los Gatos sits the Cambrian area of San Jose (which has 2 zip codes, but the part adjacent to LG is 95124). The Union School District serves both part of Cambrian and part of east Los Gatos. There’s a noticeable price drop going into Cambrian, but the hills and the town of LG are still close. Very good schools and a good “bang for your buck” in terms of what you get in education for the price of the home. Cambrian real estate market statistics
Willow Glen is closer to downtown San Jose than to Los Gatos, but it has much of the charm that LG is known for, includes a lovely downtown area with its own identity, and boasts some of the most scenic streets in all of Silicon Valley. The public schools are generally not a drawing factor. Willow Glen real estate market article
Campbell is probably the most happening city in Santa Clara County right now in terms of home buyer popularity. Campbell provides a lovely downtown, light rail access to downtown San Jose and beyond, a great parks system (especially along the Los Gatos Creek Trail), unusually good shopping, and in some areas really excellent schools. This is a “closer in” location than Los Gatos or Almaden, so it’s an easier commute for that lower price, too. Campbell housing market trends and stats
The 95033 zip code covers a lot of land in Santa Clara County and Santa Cruz County too. Part of it is just beyond the Los Gatos town border, but the majority of it is quite a bit further. School scores are high, air is clean, trees are everywhere and valley views (or in the next county over, Monterey Bay views) are not uncommon. The prices are much better than in town, but the tradeoff is that you have to deal with Highway 17 every day, plus some issues that are particular to the mountains, beach traffic, etc. Please also see this article on the Los Gatos Mountains or Santa Cruz Mountains And on the market – Altos Live RE Market Charts for the LG or Santa Cruz Mountains area