Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. This post is updated every month or two. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after I ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the market might actually be empty in those tiers, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?

Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined

The overall MOI for the town as a whole with 95030 and 95032 zip codes shows a mild seller’s market, with post-summer cooling likely in what is a typical seasonal pattern. It is a bit of a mixed market when looking at the town as a whole, but less so when viewed by high school district or price point. We’ll see when the month is over, but already in many parts of Santa Clara County, the real estate market is returning to seasonal patterns with some cool pockets and some which remain hotter.

 

 

And here’s the same chart with data from last February. You can see that in mid-winter the inventory was smaller and moving slightly slower.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 1 - 95030 95032

 

Looking back farther, here’s the same info for last November – the overall absorption rate isn’t much different from right now, and inventory and sales are neck-and-neck. Almost exactly a year ago, the market doesn’t look too different.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

 

And a reference from April, when the market was red hot:

 

 

The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only

Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say).Houses for sale with Los Gatos schools tend to be more pricey than those in neighboring school districts. This isn’t just the schools, but is also a function of being closer to downtown Los Gatos. The lowest priced homes in this area are seldom listed for less than $1 million.

 

 

Once again, we’ll compare it against last February. While the overall market is moving faster today than in February, here we can see that for homes in the Los Gatos School District were moving more quickly in winter. While the number of sales hasn’t changed much, inventory has gone up in this sector.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 2 - LGSUHSD

 

From last November, again, not a ton different between then and now.

 

Los Gatos 95030 95032 LG Schools

 

From April, a crazy hot seller’s market:

 

 

As you can see, the market is softening, very slowly, over time. Markets don’t tend to change quickly, which is why we take the time to study trends long-term like this.

The real estate market for homes with Campbell Union High School District only

And finally, let’s see how the market is within the area of LG which is served by the Campbell Union High School District (Leigh HS and Westmont HS). These areas are usually a little more affordable than areas with the Los Gatos Saratoga Joint Union HSD and Los Gatos High.

This area’s main target is the “sweet spot” of the Los Gatos real estate market – homes in the Campbell Union High School District listed between $1 and $2 million (neighborhoods such as Belwood of Los Gatos and Belgatos in east Los Gatos). Because of the strong sellers market, these types of houses have been rare over the last couple of years and are selling faster and higher than ever. Buyers still struggle against tough competition, and what little available listings are going fast. Right now, it looks like homes in just about every pricing tier are selling well in this part of town.

Inventory is rising more here than in other areas of town

This is the hottest part of the Los Gatos real estate market, as you can see from the months of inventory for this high school district generally, but it’s not that much different from the rest of town overall. Not many listings, not many sales. (Anyone want to sell a home?!)

 

 

Compared to February, however, there’s a good percentage increase in listings and sold properties. While the lower numbers do make the MOI shift more dramatically month-to-month, it does appear to be a significantly hotter market than the Los Gatos school district right now.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 3 - CUHSD

 

A year ago this market was red hot as well. So red hot that the most in-demand price range (in red, roughly $1.5-2M) could barely keep up with a MOI of 0.33!

 

Los Gatos 95030 95032 with CUHSD

 

And from April, a hyper over-heated seller’s market:

 

Interestingly, this part of LG has been the hottest segment of the market for well over a year now.

What can we take away from this study of the months of inventory? It’s only one data point, but it indicates that properties priced between $2,500,000 and $3,500,000 range in Los Gatos are going more quickly, with entry level properties below $2,000,000 close behind. Beyond that, it’s spotty, but very challenging to sell in the upper tier of pricing, specifically $4,000,000 and up.

Part of what I see happening (in Los Gatos, Almaden, Saratoga and elsewhere) is that more sellers are putting their homes on the market in less than best condition. This isn’t happening only in Los Gatos, but throughout Silicon Valley. Sellers hear that it’s a sellers market, so some do not put the effort in. For those who do, and who price the home aggressively, sales are quicker and tend to come with multiple offers, especially in the lower price points.

Altos Research market data for Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

Note: Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

 

Next, the 95032 area of Los Gatos (much of which is in the Campbell Union HSD, but not all).

 

Want more info on Los Gatos or nearby areas such as Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, Saratoga, San Jose or? Please have a look at my Real Estate Report, which is updated around the 5th-10th of each month with the statistics for the closed sales in the prior month: http://www.popehandy.ReReport.com, or my summary of this report in the post Los Gatos real estate statistics and market trends, updated monthly. Interested in other nearby markets? Check out these articles on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog:

Saratoga CA real estate market update

The Cambrian Park real estate market update

The Campbell real estate market

and many more areas: Blossom Valley, Willow Glen, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View etc. can be found there also:  http://www.SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com

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