Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory has been the headline story in the Los Gatos real estate market for the last year. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2015 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. The chart below shows us that the average inventory for Los Gatos in March can vary, but not by a large margin and usually sits somewhere between the mid 50s to 60s. This March fell well below that range with only 43 active listings, the lowest across all visible years.

Seasonal trends for 2020 were thrown completely off after the lockdown order with inventory has been unusually consistent since March with little fluctuation, the result of which was a higher than average inventory in December and lower averages throughout the rest of the year.

 

InventoryLG-Mar2021

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health and safety concerns. For a look at how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

Some homeowners may be waiting until the restrictions are lifted to list their home, but seller’s willing to jump through a few hoops are benefitting from a very hot seller’s market with limited inventory. If you’re interested in selling your home this year, check out my article on how to Sell Your Home in 2021. When you’re ready to talk to an agent I would love to hear from you!

What is selling best in LG right now?

In general, single family homes listed at or under roughly $2.5 million are selling well, averaging around 6.3% over list price in March. Those listed around $2.5 millions and upward are also frequently selling above asking with an average of roughly 3.9% above list price in March. Even so, there are exceptions in both groups. Certain things can skew the data. For instance, a home in Los Gatos listed under $2 million took over 8 months to sell and sold $1 over asking, while another listed around $3.7 million sold over 28% above asking in just 7 days. When planning to buy or sell, it’s best to look at the data within a mile of your home (or the one you want to buy), and across similar properties, excluding the odd sales which aren’t comparable.

By the numbers: Of the 46 single family home sales in Los Gatos (not including the mountain market) in March on the MLS, none sold under $1 million, 13 closed at or below $2 million (3 went below $1.5 million), 19 sold above $2 and below $3 million, 11 above $3 and below $4 million, and 3 sold ranging from $4 million to $4.6 million. The high end price point tends to be around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,695,000 (-5.4%) $2,850,000 $2,565,000 (+5.1%)
Average Price $2,659,670 (-19.3%) $3,297,760 $2,807,500 (-5.3%)
No. of Sales 44 (+51.7%) 29 24 (+83.3%)
Pending 65 (+22.6%) 53 29 (+124.1%)
Active 40 (+17.6%) 34 57 (-29.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.1% (+3.8%) 101.2% 102.8% (+2.2%)
Days on Market 34 (-51.1%) 69 14 (+134.5%)
Days of Inventory 27 (-13.8%) 32 71 (-61.7%)

Prices fell from last month and aren’t far from last year. However, last month had a rare +$10 million sale, so take last month’s average price with a grain of salt. The number of sales and sales pending are well above last month and last year showing heightened activity. Available inventory, on the other hand, continues to fall short of last year, but grew a little month-over-month. The sales vs list price ratio jumped to a hot 105.1%, rising well above last month and last year. Overall it’s an increasingly busy seller’s market in Los Gatos, possibly impacted by delayed activity from earlier this year.

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market kept momentum in March with 8 sales, fewer than last month and last year, and 20 pending sales, nearly double February and 5 times 2020! The smaller pools of data can make for less reliable market analysis, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing. Nevertheless, sales are happening close to list price and inventory remains less than half of last year. As usual it’s a milder market in the mountains than in town, but possibly due to low inventory in-town the mountains have been fairly active. A higher demand for outdoors space and fewer people commuting to work during the pandemic may also be causing an increase in interest in this market.

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,372,500 (+2.1%) $1,344,000 $1,512,000 (-9.2%)
Average Price $1,203,880 (-13.8%) $1,396,000 $1,508,230 (-20.2%)
No. of Sales (-38.5%) 13 13 (-38.5%)
Pending 20 (+81.8%) 11 (+400.0%)
Active 19 (0.0%) 19 40 (-52.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.6% (+0.1%) 100.6% 99.2% (+1.5%)
Days on Market 162 (+47.8%) 110 80 (+102.5%)
Days of Inventory 71 (+80.6%) 39 92 (-22.8%)

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Prices for Los Gatos Condos were down from last month and last year in March. Sales and active inventory fell month-over-month, while pending sales grew. Compared to last year, sales and pendings are well up and active inventory falls short.  This area was off from the other markets in 2020 with higher active inventory than the year before and fewer sales. The sale to list price ratio dipped to a warm 102.2%, falling below last month and last year. All-in-all, the condo market is relatively stable seller’s market with particularly low inventory and a bit milder than the single family housing market.

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,255,000 (-16.3%) $1,500,000 $1,425,000 (-11.9%)
Average Price $1,234,330 (-1.3%) $1,250,000 $1,398,290 (-11.7%)
No. of Sales (-30.8%) 13 (+28.6%)
Pending 19 (+46.2%) 13 (+533.3%)
Active (-20.0%) 10 13 (-38.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.2% (-2.0%) 104.3% 104.0% (-1.7%)
Days on Market 12 (-65.9%) 34 10 (+13.9%)
Days of Inventory 27 (+28.4%) 21 56 (-52.1%)

 

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes), but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a strong seller’s advantage with a steady incline in market action. Inventory is steady and low, homes are selling more quickly on average, and pricing is up. The market is showing clear signs of spring warming!

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a strong market action that’s climbing with extremely low days on market (even faster than in-town) and a growing active inventory. It’s a strong seller’s market in 95032 and currently much hotter than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market action is rising still, and is almost as active as 95030 with a strong seller’s advantage. One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive property is usually about half the cost of the least expensive home anywhere else in Los Gatos! Right now, that number only a fraction of the lowest price anywhere else!

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a strong seller’s market with extremely high demand. Inventory remains low, but is growing and listings are taking almost no time to sell.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2020, after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late June. After some dips the price rose close to the peak again in early November. They plunged through late fall and winter before skyrocketing again through February.

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil. Last year prices fell from winter into May, rose a little into late June before plummeting to rock bottom in September, then shot up to a peak in November 2020. Since this is the Median Price, that might indicate that fewer homes sold, and with less data, the numbers swing more drastically. It looks like the greatest demand has been for the lower price tier in this market, as we observed at the beginning of this article.

 

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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