Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory is the main story in the Los Gatos real estate market today. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2014 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. What we see in the chart below tells us that average July inventory is in the high 70s or above with lower averages in the low 70s, but in 2020 inventory a good deal shy of that at 61 listings! Going back, not since March was 2020 inventory in-line with the usual monthly inventory.

 

InventoryLG-July2020

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health & safety concerns. For a look at of how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

What is selling best in LG right now?

Of the 50 single family home sales in Los Gatos in July on the MLS, none sold under $1 million, 13 closed under $2 million, 25 were between $2 and $3 million, 7 between $3 and $4 million, 4 between $4 and $5 million, and 1 at $5 million. The high end price point tends to be at around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,497,500 (-2.5%) $2,562,500 $2,364,580 (+5.6%)
Average Price $2,786,610 (-7.3%) $3,006,550 $2,522,580 (+10.5%)
No. of Sales 54 (+50.0%) 36 35 (+54.3%)
Pending 45 (-11.8%) 51 27 (+66.7%)
Active 58 (+1.8%) 57 82 (-29.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.5% (+1.6%) 98.8% 100.2% (+0.3%)
Days on Market 34 (+29.3%) 26 34 (+0.1%)
Days of Inventory 32 (-29.8%) 46 70 (-54.2%)

 

Prices saw a drop since March, but June numbers saw prices rise again and they’re above where they were a year ago in July. The number of sales and active listings have also bounced back with sales well exceeding last month and last year. Active listings are up from last month but well below last year, but pending are nearly double what they were a year ago. The sales vs list price ratio is strong at 100.5%, higher than last month and last year. Overall it remains a seller’s market in Los Gatos, possibly showing some delayed spring activity.

 

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market remained busy in July with 16 sales showing on this chart, double July sales in 2019! Compare that to May with 2 sales – such small pools of data mean less reliable market analysis. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing. Nevertheless, sales are happening close to list price and quickly. It’s usually a milder market in the mountains than in town, but possibly due to low inventory the mountains are still very active.

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,361,000 (+3.5%) $1,315,000 $965,000 (+41.0%)
Average Price $1,436,440 (+9.9%) $1,307,240 $913,438 (+57.3%)
No. of Sales 16 (-5.9%) 17 (+100.0%)
Pending 26 (-7.1%) 28 (+271.4%)
Active 40 (+11.1%) 36 48 (-16.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.9% (+0.5%) 98.4% 97.0% (+2.0%)
Days on Market 45 (-7.6%) 49 41 (+10.1%)
Days of Inventory 75 (+22.1%) 61 180 (-58.3%)

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Prices for Los Gatos Condos were up from last month again. July sales grew along with active listings. Pending sales fell from last month but are holding steady year over year. The sale to list price ratio rose to 100.2% after sticking around 98% for months. All-in-all, the condo market is relatively stable and a little warmer than a year ago. This is still a clear seller’s market.

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,304,000 (+3.9%) $1,255,000 $1,305,000 (-0.1%)
Average Price $1,298,800 (+7.3%) $1,210,000 $1,318,560 (-1.5%)
No. of Sales 10 (+25.0%) 8 (+11.1%)
Pending (-44.4%) 9 (0.0%)
Active 24 (+50.0%) 16 18 (+33.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.2% (+2.3%) 98.0% 98.6% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 26 (-21.2%) 32 23 (+12.0%)
Days of Inventory 72 (+24.1%) 58 60 (+20.0%)

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes), but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a slight seller’s advantage in the current data. Prices are fairly stable and the market action is rising quickly after a gradual decline through spring.

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a strong, continual increase in market action and still declining days on market, indicating a very hot seller’s market. However prices aren’t heating up and we’re seeing a recent drop, possibly indicating that the market activity is mostly in the lower price points. It’s a strong seller’s advantage in 95032, and distinctly stronger than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market is less active than the 95030 market by a hair and is currently in a slight seller’s advantage. One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive property is usually about half the cost of the least expensive home anywhere else in Los Gatos! Right now, that number is only a third of the lowest price in the other two markets!

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a slight seller’s advantage with signs of warming in practically every data point. Again we see prices falling, though in such a hot market that probably indicates where the market is selling rather than a change in the value of home prices.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2019, Median Price peaked at the end of April, and then came close again in May, July, September, and, surprisingly, December. In 2020 after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late July.

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil, but this January saw the farthest drop right before the highest peak. Since this is the Median Price, that might just indicate that fewer homes sold, and with less data, the numbers swing more drastically. Current prices appear to be falling again after a drop into May and a peak in late July.

 

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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