The Los Gatos real estate market is going into the autumn cool down. This is seasonally normal, even if the market conditions are artificially hurt by the fed’s efforts to control inflation by tightening the money supply with higher interest rates.

We do expect it to be harder to sell for top dollar by November and December. At the same time, for sellers willing to sell with pricing pressure, often the odds are improved since many home owners will remove their properties from the market – especially in December.

For home buyers, selection typically dwindles this time of year. The trade off is that prices are also usually softer. With less demand, it’s not uncommon to see interest rates ease up a little, too, though I’m not expecting that right now.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownStats from the MLS for Los Gatos 95030 and Los Gatos 95032

As of today, November 8, the Los Gatos real estate market in 95030 & 95032 is cooling down a little – more inventory, fewer sales, longer days to sell:

  • 50  single family homes are on the market in “Active” status – last month at this time it was 48 (of those, 5 are listed as “agent only, show”, and 1 is “agent only, do not show”). The agent only listings means that they are not syndicated to other websites, meaning 6 properties, or 13% of the homes for sale will not be seen on places like Realtor.com, Zillow, or Redfin.
    • The median days on market for these 50 homes for sale is 47. Half the listed properties have been on the market for shorter than this time, and half longer.
    • The average days on market for this group is 57.
    • Six of the homes have been on the market for more than 100 days. Eight more have been on the market for more than 60 days.
    • Additionally, some homes may have come off market, changed the price, and returned with the clock rolled back to zero when they’re really been for sale most of 2022.
  • 3 houses are under contract but there are contingencies of some kind in place (could be loan, appraisal, property inspection, buyer to sell current home, seller to find a replacement home) – so those sales may not go through. It was 4 a month ago.
  • 11  houses are sale pending, no contingencies (this is a small number compared to the active listings) – it was  20 last month at my last update for this post
  • 21 houses have closed escrow in the last month, down from 24 last month and 29 the month before.
    • The average sale price to list price ratio for these 21 houses was 99% – it was 100% on Oct 10 and  97% for my September update. I think it’s fair to say that it is hovering close to 100% generally.
    • The median days on market was 19 for this group – meaning that half of the homes sold in 19 or fewer days and the other half longer. The average days on market for these 21 houses is 37 days. That tells us that some of the sold properties were on the market for a very long time. Three houses took more than 100 days. Twelve of twenty one sold in under a month.

Multi Year Statistics: Los Gatos real estate market

Here is some multiple year over year Los Gatos real estate market data that I pulled directly from the MLS today:

Inventory

Inventory has risen back up a bit, but is well before all recent Octobers except for October 2021.

 

2022-11-08 the inventory of Los Gatos houses for sale in 95030 and 95032

 

Months of inventory for Los Gatos homes for sale

If homes continue selling at the current rate, and with no new inventory added, how long would it take to sell off everything currently listed?  Compared to pre-pandemic years, this is a normal to quick absorption rate.

 

2022-11-08 Months of Inventory SFH Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

 

 

Sale Price to List Price Ratio for Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 houses

This figure has slipped back down. Like several other data points, it seems to be hovering within a fairly narrow band. This is one of the “cooler” market indicators.

(If the chart is too small to read, please click on it and a new tab will open with the full size image – best viewed not with a mobile phone.)

 

2022-11-08_ sale price to list price ratio

 

Average sale price of homes sold in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 – Los Gatos house prices

The numbers really jump around a bit in Los Gatos. Los Gatos single family home prices aren’t quite that volatile. What can happen is that in one month, there may be more sales in one school district, home size, or price point than in another. If one month a high proportion of entry level homes sell in a less expensive school district, and the next month a lot of properties sold in a more expensive area with larger homes, it will jump. There were only 26 homes sold last month, which isn’t a big pool for our data.

Home prices are down compared to both the month before and the year before.

If you click on the image below, it will open in a new window and be larger and easier to read.

 

2022-11-08_Average sale price - houses in Los Gatos 95032 and 95030

 

The days to sell also grew in October. It’s a little higher than normal, but on par with October 2018 and ahead of Oct 2016.

 

2022-11-08 Average Days to Sell

RE REPORT: Los Gatos Real Estate Statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

 

First up, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

 

Disclaimer: The RE Report numbers this month are again different from the MLS stats that I pulled directly. I’m not sure why this is the case. This month it’s the opposite in terms of month over month differences.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,844,000 (+9.4%) $2,600,000 $3,100,000 (-8.3%)
Average Price $3,331,400 (+15.0%) $2,896,050 $3,541,820 (-5.9%)
No. of Sales 30 (+15.4%) 26 38 (-21.1%)
Pending 42 (-28.8%) 59 62 (-32.3%)
Active 48 (+29.7%) 37 31 (+54.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.3% (-2.3%) 100.6% 106.4% (-7.6%)
Days on Market 39 (+4.7%) 37 23 (+65.5%)
Days of Inventory 48 (+16.3%) 41 24 (+96.1%)

 

 

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market summary here, but please click the link above to see the whole report:

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,475,000 (+1.7%) $1,450,000 $1,658,250 (-11.1%)
Average Price $1,347,400 (-2.9%) $1,387,500 $1,575,160 (-14.5%)
No. of Sales 10 (+150.0%) 4 16 (-37.5%)
Pending 16 (+23.1%) 13 18 (-11.1%)
Active 19 (-29.6%) 27 17 (+11.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.0% (+2.1%) 96.0% 100.5% (-2.5%)
Days on Market 40 (+17.3%) 34 41 (-2.8%)
Days of Inventory 57 (-70.9%) 196 32 (+78.8%)

 

 

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Los Gatos Condos are selling at a cooler pace, but prices are up month over month.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $900,000 (-30.4%) $1,292,500 $1,345,000 (-33.1%)
Average Price $992,775 (-16.9%) $1,195,000 $1,164,580 (-14.8%)
No. of Sales (-33.3%) 6 12 (-66.7%)
Pending 13 (+44.4%) 9 16 (-18.8%)
Active 18 (-5.3%) 19 15 (+20.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.4% (-0.2%) 97.6% 101.7% (-4.2%)
Days on Market 38 (-41.8%) 65 15 (+153.1%)
Days of Inventory 135 (+47.0%) 92 38 (+260.0%)

 

 

Live Charts, Updated Weekly

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes) in the Los Gatos housing market, but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

A number to watch in the above chart is “price decreased”. Right now 25% of listings in this zip code are taking price reductions. That’s in the range of normal (even in a hot market, some sellers price their homes unrealistically high).

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Far fewer homes in 95032 are taking price reductions right now. The market action index is also rising in 95032, while it’s declining in 95030. I suspect it’s that prices are more in budget in 95032, so there are more buyers able to compete in those price points.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market is usually cooler than the valley floor, but also more affordable, generally. Interesting that 33% of those listings have needed a price reduction.

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a warm seller’s market with extremely high demand and some cooling. Inventory is rising, finally. The days on market are skewed because some homes are on the market for over a year (super expensive houses can take a long time to sell).

 

Altos Research Housing Market Charts by Pricing Quartile

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

 

 

And 95032, which is behaving quite differently from 95030:

 

 

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

 

Getting to Know Your Market

Finally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1.8 million range (if you can locate a house under 1.8 dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about Los Gatos real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

Occasionally I will do other market analysis, like my article on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district. Check it out!

Lastly, if you like this information and find it valuable, please consider reaching out to us  when it’s time for you to buy or sell a home in Los Gatos or anywhere in Santa Clara County. We would love to hear from you!

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