Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory has been the headline story in the Los Gatos real estate market since spring 2020! Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2015 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. The chart below shows us that the average inventory for Los Gatos in September can vary, but usually sits somewhere between the low 80s to low 70s and rarely as small as 60. This September fell well below that range with only 43 active listings, the lowest across all visible years!

Seasonal trends for 2020 were thrown completely off shortly after the lockdown order. Inventory never grew to the expected level that spring with available listings consistently shrinking from May through January and hardly any growth in spring 2021, despite the vaccine and subsequent reopening!

 

Active Inventory September 2021 Los Gatos 95030 & 95032

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health and safety concerns. Although most things have reopened, things aren’t back to the pre-pandemic norm. For a look at how Covid-19 affected the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

Covid restrictions have mostly been lifted, and Silicon Valley remains in a hot seller’s market with limited inventory. If you’re interested in selling your home this year, check out my article on how to Sell Your Home in 2021. When you’re ready to talk to an agent I would love to hear from you!

What is selling best in LG right now?

In general, single family homes listed at or under $2.5 million are selling well, with their sales averaging around 5.7% over list price in September. Those listed upwards of $2.5 millions are also frequently selling above asking with an average of roughly 3.7% above list price. Even so, there are exceptions in both groups.

Certain things can skew the data. For instance, a home in Los Gatos listed just under $1.9 million took 100 days to sell, and sold around 1.3% below list price, while another listed at $3.2 million sold nearly 12.5% above asking ($400K over) in just 3 days! When planning to buy or sell, it’s best to look at the data within a mile of your home (or the one you want to buy), and across similar properties, excluding the sales which aren’t comparable.

By the numbers: Of the 39 single family home sales in Los Gatos (not including the mountain market) in September on the MLS, none sold under $1.5 million, 6 sold under $2 million, 21 sold from $2 to $3 million, 5 sold above $3 million and below $4 million, 5 sold between $4 to $5 million, 1 sold over $5 million and another sold over $6 million!

The high end price point tends to be around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County, although it’s been creeping upwards with the overly hot market we’ve been experiencing. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities) – the entire Los Gatos real estate market combined. Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,710,800 (-8.1%) $2,950,000 $2,350,000 (+15.4%)
Average Price $3,249,660 (-0.1%) $3,253,780 $2,491,080 (+30.5%)
No. of Sales 37 (-7.5%) 40 37 (0.0%)
Pending 61 (+10.9%) 55 51 (+19.6%)
Active 47 (-6.0%) 50 55 (-14.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.1% (-0.2%) 105.4% 102.5% (+2.6%)
Days on Market 15 (-23.8%) 20 29 (-46.6%)
Days of Inventory 37 (-1.8%) 38 43 (-14.5%)

Prices for Los Gatos real estate haven’t changed much month-over-month, but compared to last year they’ve risen about 15%-30%! Last year’s market had a higher number of active listings, but fewer pending sales. Compared to last month, closed sales and active inventory fell short while pending sales grew. The sales vs list price ratio shrank a hair month-over-month, still well above last year at a red hot 105.1% of asking.

Overall, despite some seasonal cooling it remains a busy seller’s market in Los Gatos, likely impacted by pent up demand from the last two years.

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

 

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market showed some ups and downs this September. Closed sales rose month-over-month and were surprisingly stable year-over-year. Pending sales fell from the month before, as did active inventory. Year-over-year, available inventory is barely a drop in the bucket while pending sales remain high. Sales have slowed down, taking an average of 34 days and sold closer to list price, averaging 99.8% of asking.

As usual it’s a milder market in the mountains than in town, although the raging hot seller’s market has made the mountains especially active lately. A higher demand for outdoors space and fewer people commuting to work during the pandemic may have also brought an increased interest in this market.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,350,000 (-11.5%) $1,525,000 $1,296,000 (+4.2%)
Average Price $1,418,530 (-31.2%) $2,061,670 $1,489,390 (-4.8%)
No. of Sales 19 (+26.7%) 15 18 (+5.6%)
Pending 23 (-11.5%) 26 15 (+53.3%)
Active 14 (-44.0%) 25 37 (-62.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.8% (+0.7%) 99.2% 99.8% (0.0%)
Days on Market 34 (+39.9%) 24 45 (-26.1%)
Days of Inventory 21 (-57.3%) 50 60 (-64.2%)

The smaller pools of data can make for less reliable market analysis, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing.

 

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Los Gatos Condos were more active this September than last year. Closed sales fell month-over-month and remain high year-over-year. Pending sales and active inventory held relatively stable from the month before. Looking back further, pending sales have tripled since last year while available inventory is barely keeping up. The sale to list price ratio heated to 103.1%, well above last year.

This area was off from the other markets in mid-2020 with higher active inventory than the year before and fewer sales. All-in-all, the condo market is in a prolonged seller’s market with low inventory and milder activity than the single family housing market.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,524,500 (+15.9%) $1,315,000 $1,260,000 (+21.0%)
Average Price $1,430,000 (+20.0%) $1,191,540 $1,178,890 (+21.3%)
No. of Sales 14 (-30.0%) 20 (+55.6%)
Pending 16 (-5.9%) 17 (+220.0%)
Active 17 (-5.6%) 18 20 (-15.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.1% (+1.4%) 101.7% 98.5% (+4.7%)
Days on Market 17 (-23.6%) 22 59 (-71.1%)
Days of Inventory 35 (+30.4%) 27 64 (-45.4%)

 

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes) in the Los Gatos real estate market, but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a strong seller’s market with a steady decline in market action. Inventory is perpetually low with homes selling quickly into summer. It’s a hot market!

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a more stable, higher overall market action, and larger inventory. It’s a strong seller’s market in 95032 and keeping a little hotter than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market is in a strong seller’s market with less stable market action than the other areas, but currently keeping up with the in-town market! One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive properties are well below the cost of the least expensive homes anywhere else in Los Gatos. Currently, the Mountains also have the second largest available inventory, making it easier for weary buyers to compete.

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a strong seller’s market with extremely high demand and some mild seasonal cooling. Inventory is low and stable, the days on market are lengthening, and the market remains hot.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2020, after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late June. After some dips the price rose again in early November. They plunged through late fall and winter before skyrocketing again through February 2021. We saw a second, higher peak around the end of April through July! All quartiles remain sky high compared to 2020 – in-town Los Gatos real estate prices are through the roof!

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil. Last year prices fell from winter into May, rose a little into late June before plummeting to rock bottom in September, then shot up to a peak in November 2020. That might indicate that fewer homes sold and with less data the numbers swing more drastically. It looks like the greatest demand has been for the lower price tier in this market, as we observed at the beginning of this article. That said, in 2021 the average has been sticking closely to the low $3 million range.

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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