Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory has been the headline story in the Los Gatos real estate market since last spring. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2015 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. The chart below shows us that the average inventory for Los Gatos in May can vary, but not by a large margin and usually sits somewhere between the high 70s to upper 80s. This June fell well below that range with only 42 active listings, the lowest across all visible years and less than half the inventory in 2018 and 2019!

Seasonal trends for 2020 were thrown completely off shortly after the lockdown order. Inventory never grew to the expected level last spring with available listings consistently shrinking from May through January and hardly any growth in spring 2021!

 

Inventory Los Gatos June 2021

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health and safety concerns. For a look at how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

Covid restrictions have mostly been lifted, but some homeowners are still be hesitant to list their home so soon after reopening. Seller’s willing to list now are benefitting from a very hot seller’s market with limited inventory. If you’re interested in selling your home this year, check out my article on how to Sell Your Home in 2021. When you’re ready to talk to an agent I would love to hear from you!

What is selling best in LG right now?

In general, single family homes listed at or under $2.5 million are selling well, with their sales averaging around 12.9% over list price in June. Those listed upwards of $2.5 millions are also frequently selling above asking with an average of roughly 5.3% above list price in June. Even so, there are exceptions in both groups.

Certain things can skew the data. For instance, a home in Los Gatos listed just under $2.2 million took 57 days to sell and sold at list price, while another listed over $3.9 million sold over 19.4% above asking in 0 days! When planning to buy or sell, it’s best to look at the data within a mile of your home (or the one you want to buy), and across similar properties, excluding the odd sales which aren’t comparable.

By the numbers: Of the 59 single family home sales in Los Gatos (not including the mountain market) in June on the MLS, none sold under $1.5 million, 8 closed at or below $2 million, 21 sold above $2 and below $3 million, 21 between $3 and $4 million, 5 sold from $4 million to $5 million, 3 sold between $5 million and $6 million, 1 sold above $6 million.

The high end price point tends to be around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities) – the entire Los Gatos real estate market combined. Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

Trends At a Glance Jun 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,932,500 (-2.3%) $3,000,000 $2,562,500 (+14.4%)
Average Price $3,148,560 (-8.7%) $3,448,340 $3,006,550 (+4.7%)
No. of Sales 58 (+1.8%) 57 36 (+61.1%)
Pending 55 (-12.7%) 63 48 (+14.6%)
Active 40 (-2.4%) 41 60 (-33.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 108.3% (+1.7%) 106.5% 98.8% (+9.6%)
Days on Market 13 (-45.5%) 23 26 (-52.3%)
Days of Inventory 20 (-7.3%) 22 48 (-58.6%)

Prices for Los Gatos real estate jumped up in May, but that’s likely caused by the exceptional +$14 mil sale. The number of sales and sales pending continue to rise well above last year showing heightened buyer activity. Available inventory, on the other hand, continues to fall short year-over-year. Compared to last month, closed sales up and both active inventory and pending sales have taken a dip. The sales vs list price ratio rose to a red hot 108.3%, rising almost 10% above last year.

Overall it’s an increasingly busy seller’s market in Los Gatos, likely impacted by pent up demand from last year.

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

 

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market kept momentum this June with 18 closed sales, a dip from last month and a hair above last year. Pending sales shrank month-over-month and year-over-year. Active inventory grew through spring, but remains extremely low compared to last year’s availability. Sales are happening quickly in 25 days and often above list price, rising to 105.6%. As usual it’s a milder market in the mountains than in town, but possibly due to low inventory in-town the mountains have been especially active. A higher demand for outdoors space and fewer people commuting to work during the pandemic may also be causing an increase in interest in this market.

The smaller pools of data here can make for less reliable market analysis, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing.

Trends At a Glance Jun 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,356,500 (-10.5%) $1,515,000 $1,315,000 (+3.2%)
Average Price $1,584,610 (-2.1%) $1,618,120 $1,307,240 (+21.2%)
No. of Sales 18 (-21.7%) 23 17 (+5.9%)
Pending 19 (-24.0%) 25 24 (-20.8%)
Active 26 (+30.0%) 20 41 (-36.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.6% (+2.3%) 103.2% 98.4% (+7.3%)
Days on Market 25 (-30.1%) 35 49 (-49.1%)
Days of Inventory 42 (+60.6%) 26 70 (-40.1%)

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Los Gatos Condos were also much more active this June than last year. That said, sales aren’t far off month-over-month, nor year-over-year. Pending sales and active inventory saw good growth from the month before. Looking back further, pending sales have more than doubled from last year while available inventory is still significantly below 2020. This area was off from the other markets in mid-2020 with higher active inventory than the year before and fewer sales. The sale to list price ratio remains hot at 102.1%, well above last year. All-in-all, the condo market is in a prolonged seller’s market with low inventory and somewhat milder activity than the single family housing market.

Trends At a Glance Jun 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,310,000 (+2.1%) $1,282,500 $1,255,000 (+4.4%)
Average Price $1,201,000 (-6.3%) $1,281,400 $1,210,000 (-0.7%)
No. of Sales (-10.0%) 10 (+12.5%)
Pending 19 (+26.7%) 15 (+111.1%)
Active 15 (+50.0%) 10 19 (-21.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.1% (-1.8%) 103.9% 98.0% (+4.2%)
Days on Market 16 (+2.0%) 16 32 (-50.2%)
Days of Inventory 48 (+61.1%) 30 69 (-29.8%)

 

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes) in the Los Gatos real estate market, but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a strong seller’s market with a recent decline in market action. Inventory is low with homes selling quickly, especially those in the $2-$2.5 million range. It’s a hot spring market!

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a stronger decline in market action, a higher overall market action, and extremely low median days on market. It’s a strong seller’s market in 95032 and currently much hotter than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market is in a strong seller’s market with less decline in market action than the other areas, but the lowest overall market action. One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive properties are well below the cost of the least expensive homes anywhere else in Los Gatos.

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a strong seller’s market with extremely high demand and a little cooling as we leave the spring market. Inventory remains low, with almost imperceptible growth and listings are taking very little time to sell.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2020, after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late June. After some dips the price rose again in early November. They plunged through late fall and winter before skyrocketing again through February 2021. We saw a second, higher peak around the end of April! In June all quartiles are sky high compared to 2020 again – in-town Los Gatos real estate prices are through the roof!

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil. Last year prices fell from winter into May, rose a little into late June before plummeting to rock bottom in September, then shot up to a peak in November 2020. That might indicate that fewer homes sold and with less data the numbers swing more drastically. It looks like the greatest demand has been for the lower price tier in this market, as we observed at the beginning of this article. That said, in 2021 the average has been sticking closely to the low $3 million range.

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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