Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory is the main story in the Los Gatos real estate market for 2020. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2014 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. The chart below shows us that the average inventory for Los Gatos in December can vary, but usually sits somewhere between 30 to 40 and occasionally higher. Seasonal trends for 2020 have been thrown completely off. Inventory has been unusually consistent since March with little fluctuation, the result of which is a higher than average inventory in December. This is a shift from the preceding months when, in fact, most of the year Los Gatos inventory has been extremely low.

 

Los Gatos Active Inventory SFH through Dec 2020

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health and safety concerns. For a look at how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

What is selling best in LG right now?

In general, single family homes listed at or under roughly $2.5 million are selling well, averaging around 8% over list price. For those listed in the high $2 millions and upward, on average they are selling a bit under asking. Even so, there are exceptions in both groups. Certain things can skew the data. A home in east Los Gatos listed under $2 million took over 50 days to sell and sold below asking, causing the days on market for that set to look longer than is actually the case for most homes. When planning to buy or sell, it’s best to look at the data within a mile of your home (or the one you want to buy), and across similar properties excluding the odd sales which don’t apply.

By the numbers:  Of the 22 single family home sales in Los Gatos (not including the mountain market) in December on the MLS, none sold under $1 million, 7 closed under $2 million (only 1 went below $1.5 million), 9 sold above $2 and below $3 million, 5 from $3 million to $4 million, 1 sold above $7 million. The high end price point tends to be around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,776,500 (+18.1%) $2,350,000 $2,075,000 (+33.8%)
Average Price $2,882,500 (+9.3%) $2,638,150 $2,545,930 (+13.2%)
No. of Sales 26 (-33.3%) 39 28 (-7.1%)
Pending 30 (-3.2%) 31 16 (+87.5%)
Active 39 (-22.0%) 50 29 (+34.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.5% (-0.4%) 101.9% 99.1% (+2.5%)
Days on Market 35 (+53.9%) 23 43 (-18.2%)
Days of Inventory 45 (+21.0%) 37 31 (+44.8%)

 

Prices rose since last month and last year (although that is likely skewed due to the $7.1 mil sale). The number of sales, on the other hand, is a little below last year and significantly cooler than the month prior. Active listings have also fallen since November, which is normal seasonal cooling, but are higher than 2019 inventory. Pending sales are holding steady and are nearly double the year prior, and the sales vs list price ratio cooled to 101.5%, remaining well above last year. Overall it remains a seller’s market in Los Gatos with some seasonal cooling, possibly impacted by delayed activity from earlier this year.

 

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market kept busy in December with 15 sales showing on this chart, keeping above sales in 2019. However the smaller the pool of data, the less reliable it becomes for market analysis. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing. Nevertheless, sales are happening close to list price and inventory remains well below the seasonal norm. It’s usually a milder market in the mountains than in town, but possibly due to low inventory in-town the mountains have been fairly active. A higher demand for outdoors space and fewer people commuting to work during the pandemic may also be causing an increase in interest in this market.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,225,000 (-2.0%) $1,250,000 $1,093,320 (+12.0%)
Average Price $1,351,950 (+17.7%) $1,148,440 $1,108,400 (+22.0%)
No. of Sales 15 (+36.4%) 11 14 (+7.1%)
Pending 20 (-13.0%) 23 14 (+42.9%)
Active 19 (-29.6%) 27 37 (-48.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.3% (+1.1%) 98.3% 99.6% (-0.3%)
Days on Market 38 (+8.9%) 35 85 (-55.5%)
Days of Inventory 38 (-46.6%) 71 79 (-52.1%)

 

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Prices for Los Gatos Condos were down from last month and up from last year in December. Sales dropped, as did active inventory, while pending sales rose. This area has been different from the other markets in 2020 with higher active inventory than 2019 and often fewer sales. The sale to list price ratio warmed to 101.1%, matching December 2019. All-in-all, the condo market is relatively stable, a little more active than a year ago, and in a mild seller’s market.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,200,000 (-11.4%) $1,354,000 $1,090,000 (+10.1%)
Average Price $1,162,290 (-13.7%) $1,347,170 $1,064,200 (+9.2%)
No. of Sales (-41.7%) 12 (+40.0%)
Pending 10 (+25.0%) 8 (+66.7%)
Active 10 (-28.6%) 14 (+233.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.1% (+2.9%) 98.2% 101.1% (-0.1%)
Days on Market 32 (+28.9%) 25 30 (+6.7%)
Days of Inventory 43 (+26.7%) 34 18 (+138.1%)

 

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes), but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a slight seller’s advantage with a declining market action. Prices are steady, inventory is shrinking, and homes are taking longer to sell on average.

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a strong market action holding steady with moderate days on market (much faster than in-town). Inventory is shrinking fast, though it appears to be the only signal of winter cooling in this market. It’s a strong seller’s market in 95032 and distinctly stronger than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market action is rising again, and is looking a little more active than 95030 in a slight seller’s advantage. One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive property is usually about half the cost of the least expensive home anywhere else in Los Gatos! Right now, that number only a fraction of the lowest price anywhere else!

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a strong seller’s market with an active demand. Prices are seeing a rise again, inventory is falling sharply, and listings are taking longer to sell on average.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2020, after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late June. After some dips the price rose close to the peak again in early November.

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil, but last January saw the farthest drop right before the highest peak. Since this is the Median Price, that might just indicate that fewer homes sold, and with less data, the numbers swing more drastically. Prices fell into May, rose a little into late June before plummeting to rock bottom in September, then shot up to a peak in November. It looks like the greatest demand has been for the lower price tier in this market, as we observed at the beginning of this article.

 

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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