Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory is the main story in the Los Gatos real estate market today. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2014 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. The chart below shows us that average September inventory for Los Gatos ranges from the low 70s to low 80s, but in 2020 it’s a good deal short with only 53 active listings! Going back, inventory hasn’t been in-line with usual monthly trends since this March.

 

InventoryLG-September2020

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health and safety concerns. For a look at how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

What is selling best in LG right now?

Of the 32 single family home sales in Los Gatos (not including the mountain market) in September on the MLS, none sold under $1 million, 13 closed under $2 million (only one went below $1.5 million), 13 were between $2 and $3 million, 5 between $3 and $4 million, and 1 between $4 and $5 million, and none over $5 million. The high end price point tends to be around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

 

Trends At a Glance Sep 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,350,000 (-6.0%) $2,500,000 $2,310,000 (+1.7%)
Average Price $2,491,080 (-17.1%) $3,006,510 $2,636,620 (-5.5%)
No. of Sales 37 (-9.8%) 41 25 (+48.0%)
Pending 55 (+31.0%) 42 36 (+52.8%)
Active 52 (-5.5%) 55 70 (-25.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.5% (+1.3%) 101.1% 100.0% (+2.5%)
Days on Market 29 (-4.5%) 30 48 (-40.1%)
Days of Inventory 41 (+1.3%) 40 81 (-49.8%)

 

Prices dropped since last month with September numbers looking relatively stable to where they were a year ago. The number of sales and active listings have also dipped from last month, although pending sales rose. Active listings remain well below 2019. The sales vs list price ratio rose to a strong at 102.5%, higher than last month and well above last year. Overall it remains a seller’s market in Los Gatos, possibly showing some delayed spring activity.

 

Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains

The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains market info here:

The mountain market remained busy in September with 18 sales showing on this chart, more than double September sales in 2019! Still, the smaller the pool of data the less reliable it becomes for market analysis. On top of that, the mountain market is very diverse. Better insight comes from checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing. Nevertheless, sales are happening close to list price and quickly. It’s usually a milder market in the mountains than in town, but possibly due to low inventory in-town the mountains are very active.

 

Trends At a Glance Sep 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,296,000 (-0.3%) $1,300,000 $822,500 (+57.6%)
Average Price $1,489,390 (+17.1%) $1,271,850 $787,062 (+89.2%)
No. of Sales 18 (+38.5%) 13 (+125.0%)
Pending 17 (-32.0%) 25 10 (+70.0%)
Active 35 (+6.1%) 33 49 (-28.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.8% (+0.2%) 99.6% 94.9% (+5.2%)
Days on Market 45 (-38.2%) 74 67 (-31.9%)
Days of Inventory 56 (-26.0%) 76 178 (-68.3%)

Los Gatos Condo Market Trends at a Glance

Prices for Los Gatos Condos were down from last month and up a hair from last year. That said, September sales rose and active listings were steady, now higher than last year’s market, though pending sales dipped. The sale to list price ratio rose to 98.5% which is close to where it’s been most of the year. All-in-all, the condo market is relatively stable, a little more active than a year ago, and still a clear seller’s market.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,260,000 (-6.7%) $1,350,000 $1,248,000 (+1.0%)
Average Price $1,178,890 (-12.5%) $1,346,790 $1,169,710 (+0.8%)
No. of Sales (+28.6%) 7 (+28.6%)
Pending (-44.4%) 9 13 (-61.5%)
Active 16 (0.0%) 16 11 (+45.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.5% (+1.2%) 97.3% 100.0% (-1.6%)
Days on Market 59 (+126.9%) 26 38 (+55.3%)
Days of Inventory 52 (-24.8%) 69 46 (+13.1%)

Altos Research Profiles of Los Gatos single family homes by zip code

A link is provided to the full weekly report for each zip code. It will bring you to the page for single family homes (houses and duet, or single family attached, homes), but from there  you can click on a tab and view the same type of data for condominiums and townhouses if any data exists for them.

Close to downtown – 95030 (read the full weekly report for Los Gatos 95030, which is automatically updated, here):

 

 

Downtown we see a slight seller’s advantage with a steady market action. Prices show a dip in median list price and a rise in price per square foot, indicating that smaller, entry-level homes are becoming a larger portion of the market.

 

Primarily East, West, and North Los Gatos (view the Altos Research report for Los Gatos 95032 HERE):

 

 

Here we see a strong, continual climb in market action and declining days on market, indicating a very hot seller’s market. It’s a strong seller’s market in 95032, and distinctly stronger than in 95030.

 

The Los Gatos Mountains / Santa Cruz Mountains – 95033 (see the full 95033 weekly report here, no condo or TH in these areas):

 

 

The Mountain market action is declining again and remains less active than 95030, still within a slight seller’s advantage. One advantage of the Mountains is that the least expensive property is usually about half the cost of the least expensive home anywhere else in Los Gatos! Right now, that number is roughly a quarter of the lowest price in 95032!

 

All 3 Zip Codes combined

 

 

Overall, Los Gatos is in a slight seller’s advantage with signs of warming across most data points. Prices are rising from a recent dip, inventory is falling, and the market action is holding steady.

 

Now a graph of the Median Price trends for 95030:

In 2019, Median Price peaked at the end of April, and then came close again in May, July, September, and, surprisingly, December. In 2020 after a late winter peak prices dropped sharply through April before beginning to rise again, peaking in late July. The current chart sharply plummeting.

 

And 95032

 

This chart looks a little more dramatic. Most properties in this zip code bounce around between $2.8 mil and $2.4 mil, but this January saw the farthest drop right before the highest peak. Since this is the Median Price, that might just indicate that fewer homes sold, and with less data, the numbers swing more drastically. Prices have been falling after a drop into May and a peak in late July, though that number shot up again at the end of September.

 

And 95033 (The Los Gatos Mountains)

 

The Mountain market has the greatest range of pricing by far, but the Median Price is well under either 95032 or 95030.

 

The whole Los Gatos real estate market report can be viewed here (please click). Additionally, from this page or the main one (link above) you can see this type of information for condos and townhomes plus the market data for Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains, San Jose as a whole, or areas of San Jose such as Cambrian, Almaden, and Willow Glen.

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownFinally, it should be noted that “the Los Gatos real estate market” is really a compilation of several smaller markets. It’s quite different in the over $3 million range versus the under $1 million range (if you can locate a house under a million dollars). It’s also varied from one school district to the next and often one subdivision or neighborhood to the next. The Glenridge market is going to be quite distinct from the Alta Vista or Rinconada Hills market.

From time to time I will blog about real estate market conditions in particular neighborhoods – it is possible to run the statistics via our multiple listing service by any area we care to map out. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in town or nearby, please give me a call. We can look into not just THE market, but YOUR market!

For more on the current local market, check out my post on Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district, updated monthly!

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