The Luxury Home Real Estate Market in Los Gatos & Monte Sereno: today I crunched the numbers from MLS Listings to get the absorption rate or months of inventory for estate properties over $2,000,000 in Los Gatos 95030, Los Gatos 95032, Monte Sereno (both 95030 & 95032), and the Los Gatos Mountains 95033. Monte Sereno is a red hot market for estate properties, while the Los Gatos Mountain areas are not moving a lot of super expensive properties. Have a look below.
Next we’ll look at live charts from Altos Research (to which I have a subscription)
List prices of homes for sale in the topmost price quartile in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and the Los Gatos Mountains
The market is heating up in Los Gatos as of about 4 weeks ago with new sales commenced. These will not be reflected in the closed sales until early March, so please take the ‘solds’ info below with a grain of salt and keep the changed market conditions in mind!
Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032), including county pockets, which closed in the month of February 2013. The median price is down both month over month and also year over year. It has been softer in Los Gatos than in many Silicon Valley communities right now.
Trends At a Glance
No. of Sales
Short Sales Sold
Active Short Sales
Sales Price vs. List Price
Days on Market
Inventory is low all over – and Los Gatos is no exception, though inventory did go up a bit countywide from January 2013 to Feb 2013. How bad is it? Off 30% from a year ago (and inventory was low then: Feb 2012 was 86, Feb 2011 was 132 available houses).
Days on market: The figure for February of 88 days on market for sold properties reflects the DOM of houses that closed in February and most likely went into contract in January, or possibly December – both of which were “cooler” times than the shift we saw take place in early February 2013.
How long have the currently available single family homes in LG been on the market?
As of this moment, in 95030 and 95032 combined there are just 76 single family homes for sale. Most haven’t been on all that long, in fact, appx 64% or 2/3 have been on the market for 60 days or less, and exactly half of the available inventory has been on the market for 1 month or less. Let’s see the breakdown in one-month increments of the number of homes in each time bracket.:
How long were the under contract single family homes in LG on the market?
I won’t repeat this level of detail for the Los Gatos houses which are sale pending or under contract (real estate agents: status 3 & 4), but the average days on market for those 17 pending properties is 26 and of these, only 2 were more than 30 days (1 sold with 49 DOM and another 191 DOM). In other words, when homes sell now, they are selling faster than the DOM from the closed sales in February would reveal. This will show up in March’s statistics next month.
Are there multiple offers in Los Gatos, and overbids?
Yes, there are some of each. I did a spot check of the sales for the last 7 days and the last 14 days and in both cases, the average sales price was higher than the average list price. For the last 7 days, there were 8 closed sales, 4 above list, 1 at list price and 3 below.)
Dramatic improvement in the median and average sales price of condos and townhomes in town year over year as well as from the prior month.
Trends At a Glance
No. of Sales
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Short Sales Sold
Active Short Sales
Sales Price vs. List Price
Days on Market
The Monte Sereno real estate market
Monte Sereno houses (no condos in MS) – primarily 95030 but a smattering of 95032 also. There are so few homes in Monte Sereno (just 4,000 residents) that the sales numbers are very easily skewed. Disclaimers aside, here are the Monte Sereno market stats:
A more affordable, but beautiful, place to live is in the coastal foothills over the town of Los Gatos. The communities there are closely affiliated with the town of Los Gatos, if distinct! This area is always tougher to sell, and slower to appreciate. Prices here aren’t much better, and possibly worse off (depending on the area, price point etc.), than a year ago.
Altos Live Charts for Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 plus Los Gatos Mountains 95033 and Monte Sereno Real Estate
Next please enjoy the live Altos charts, which are updated automatically each week – each segment is a little different than the others (and the reports would be more diverse still if we broke these down further, by price quartile – – sign up below if you want these delivered to you via email each week).
As you can see, pricing is stronger in 95030 than in 95032. This may be due to the schools (only a little of 95030 is in the Campbell Union High School District, but a larger portion of 95032 is). The strong Los Gatos schools are a major driver of desireability – but not the only one. Many people want to have the “walk to town” element, even if their kids are in private schools.
Friends and relatives from other parts of the U.S. or abroad have a hard time with our housing prices, understandably, as we have a hard time with them too. But few of them live in a sub-tropical climate and enjoy the many months of fair weather which we have here in “the Valley of Heart’s Delight”.
Today, October 30th, my thermometer on our front porch registered 80.8 degrees – I think it was probably 78 or 79 in reality, but still, not bad for autumn! My relatives in Boston, New Jersey, New York and DC were suffering under a very nasty snowstorm which has left 3 million people without power.
We do get some rain, about 20-22 inches per year on average. Snow virtually never happens in town (about every 10 or 20 years it lands on the valley floor, which to us is magical – but it’s gone in a couple of hours), though it does go into the mountains which ring our beautiful valley. We enjoy 300 sunny days on average each year – and like to say that we can live in smaller houses because we don’t have to hide out in them half the year! In winter, a typical day sees a high of 58 – 65 degrees (per Wikipedia article) and the lows are usually above freezing. That said, no one likes a burst pipe and the occassional Alaskan storm can bring in a frigid cold front so we are prepared for the nights with the inevitably colder-than-freezing temps.
This week temps are supposed to dip – the next three days will be in the mid 70s and after that into the 60s. But don’t expect family & friends on the east coast to feel sorry for us – they are just hoping to get their power restored during this cold snap they are suffering under.
This long-term recession and the extremely slow rebuilding of the national and local economy has taken its toll on many businesses and individuals. Still, we have much for which to be grateful. Silicon Valley seems to be leading the nation in the recovery. Thank you, technology: you never seem to get as badly hurt as other sectors, and you bounce back a bit faster too. We are all lucky to be part of this particular part of the US.
Real estate in Silicon Valley and the “south bay” is also faring better than many places. Los Gatos has had a rougher time there, though. Here’s a quick update, and some links to downloadable reports if you’d like more detail on what’s what right this week in Los Gatos homes for sale & the realty climate in general.
Los Gatos has two types of areas – “in town” (95030 and 95032) and “in the mountains” (95033). The 95033 areas are unincorporated and not part of the town per se but have a Los Gatos mailing address and residents there consider themselves residents both of their own area within the mountain communities (such as Redwood Estates) and the town of Los Gatos. The mountain areas tend to be considerably less expensive than the “in town” areas. Of the incorporated zips, 95030 tends to be more expensive, mostly because it is almost exclusively in the Los Gatos School District, whereas much of the 95032 zip code (but not all!) is not in the schools.
(Info and images below are from Altos Research, to which I do have a subscription & the right to use this material.)
Overview of all three zip codes of Los Gatos combined (95030, 95032 and 95033):
Same areas with list prices broken down by quartile:
The view by quartile gives home buyers a decent idea of what they can afford in general in this area – how far their money might be able to go. Locals will realize that it’s a little skewed in that the low, low mountain prices make Los Gatos homes appear more affordable than they are in reality (if someone wants to buy a house in the flatlands of the town). So caveat: buyers, these are VERY general numbers! You will get more for your money in the mountains and less in town.
For houses in the 95030 area of Los Gatos, California:
The Los Gatos real estate market varies between the price points, areas, school districts and zip codes (and, where present, sale type – regular sale vs short sale or bank owned home). Today we’ll update the market info for the homes for sale in Los Gatos (houses and duet homes, not the condo or townhome market).
First, here’s some data from my RE Report subscription for May sales in Los Gatos. (You can see the whole online report here.) To get the months of inventory or absorption rate, simply divide the active listings by the solds in the month – so 156/29 = 5.37 months of inventory for Los Gatos. It is just slightly inside the definition for being a seller’s market (6 months is balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market). It is close to a balanced market in Los Gatos overall.
Trends At a Glance
No. of Sales
Sale vs. List Price
Days on Market
Next, we’ll break it down a little: a look at the Los Gatos real estate market this week by zip code and price quartile for houses (and duet homes) – not condos or townhomes. Data from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. (You can get a weekly report for Los Gatos by zip code sent to you automatically….just email me and ask and I’ll set you up to receive it on auto-pilot.)
Let’s start with the numbers for the Los Gatos 95030 zip code area by price quartile. Median price here refers to the median LIST price, not sold price. The quartiles each reference 25% of the market. The first quartile is the most expensive segment and the 4th is the least. What I find really helpful with this view is what size of home your money can buy and on what lot size.
Please remember that these numbers mostly reflect listings, not sales. If you just look at the days on market, it appears that the 95030 market is much better than the 95032 market. But that is not really true. More than half of Los Gatos is in the 95030 area but note the number of homes absorbed – just 3! In the same time, though, for 95032 there were 19 homes absorbed. So while the DOM is longer in 95032, homes are actually selling better in that part of town than in 95030! (My hunch is that it’s because of two things: first, homes in 95032 tend to be more affordable and second, there are more short sales available in 95032 so they are getting scooped up at a faster rate than regular sales.)
Let’s next look at pricing trends by Los Gatos zip code next. First is the 95030 zip code area of Los Gatos with the median list prices for the last year. Hurt the most is the luxury market.
Same info but for the 95032 part of town – the median list price of houses for sale in Los Gatos, CA 95032:
Lastly, a look at the trend for “days on market” (DOM) of homes for sale in Los Gatos over the last year. Has it gotten harder or easier to sell in the last 12 months in 95030 and 95032?
For this part of Los Gatos, which tends to be the most expensive part of town, the DOM was rising until about March for all price points, then suddenly began to fall. A market reversal?
In the 95032 part of town, here’s how the DOM looks over the last year:
Interestingly, the days on market for 95032 has seemed to be a lot less volatile with one exception: the most expensive homes in the 95032 zip code. As a group, the DOM for 95032 is longer now than a year ago, which is also true for the 95030 part of town. the recent movement has been downward, though, and this also changed starting at about March 1st for most parts of town.
Overall, it is close to a balanced market in Los Gatos. Depending on the price point, zip code, school district and more, it could be a “hot seller’s market” or a “cold buyer’s market”. If you are buying or selling a home in Los Gatos, it is very important to drill down to the micro-market that applies to your home to understand how to price your home to sell or how to structure your offer price to buy.
Feel free to shoot me an email or call me to chat about your buying & selling plans. Please also check out my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog for comparative market info.
Have you ever tried to figure out the Los Gatos zip codes? The only easy one is 95031, and that refers to PO boxes only! To the left, please see a map of the Los Gatos zip codes*: 95030, 95032 and 95033. The large area is the 95033 or “Los Gatos Mountains” area. Just above it is 95030 and above that is 95032.
Los Gatos Zip Code commentary: A few years back, the post office reorganized the way that 95030 and 95032 split up most of the 9 or 10 square miles which comprise the “town of Los Gatos”. It used to be an east-west divide, and now it’s closer to a north and south split, but not exactly that either.
I love this map because it looks as odd as the new distribution feels! The 95033 zip code is unincorporated, mostly in Santa Clara County, but as you can see, much of it falls west of highway 35 (Skyline Blvd) and is in Santa Cruz County. When a home has the 95033 zip code, it is analogous to the property being “in the mountains”.
Zip codes and schools:
Neither the town’s boundaries nor the zip code boundaries line up with the school district boundaries. There are homes in both 95032 and 95030 which are in the Los Gatos School District, for instance – though nearly all of 95030 is “in the schools”. (And just as confusing – a few homes in San Jose’s Almaden Valley with a 95120 zip code are in the Los Gatos School District too.)
*A couple more notes:
(1) Monte Sereno shares the 95030 zip code with Los Gatos
(2) There are some funky pockets near the town’s borders where the homes may actually belong to Los Gatos but have a zip code of the neighboring community or vice versa – this is rare, but it happens. A patch of Campbell near Pollard and Quito has a Los Gatos 95032 mailing address, but it’s actually Campbell. Another pocket of Los Gatos near National and Carlton has a mailing address of San Jose 95124, but it’s actually part of the town of Los Gatos. Weird, but true.
The Los Gatos real estate market has had a difficult year in 2008. Are things improving now, levelling off, or worsening? What Los Gatos homeowners care about most is value: what’s my home worth now? Today we will look at what list prices are doing among Los Gatos proerties for sale: both single family homes (houses) and condominums and townhomes in both the 95030 and 95032 zip codes.
The data, care of Altos Research, pretty much speaks for itself. The situation varies from one area to the next and one price point to the next. For more detailed information than is presented here, please contact me directly.
I. Broad Overview of Los Gatos homes for sale
First let’s see an overview of list prices for single family homes in Los Gatos by zip code (all price quartiles combined).
Next, same type of data but for Los Gatos condominiums and townhomes for sale (both zip codes, median list price).
II. Closer look at houses for sale in Los Gatos
Next we’ll look more closely at single family homes by zip code and by price point or quartile.
Los Gatos houses in the 95030 zip code area by quartile:
Los Gatos houses in the 95032 zip code area by quartile:
III. Condominiums and Townhomes for Sale in Los Gatos
Next the list pricing for condos in 95030 by quartile
And finally, list prices of condos and townhouses for sale in the 95032 area by quartile
In summary, it looks as though condo prices have done fairly well overall. In 95030, they are up year over year across the board, and in 95032 they two top quartiles are up. The entry level condos in 95032 appear to have lost value year over year. The reason may be that buyers in these price points are purchasing single family homes outside of Los Gatos instead.
Among houses, the slippage in pricing is fairly slight in both zip codes among the three lower quartiles, but the market difficulties are much more pronounced among the most expensive homes in both of the Los Gatos areas. The Los Gatos luxury market has taken more of a beating than more midrange homes this year? Why is that? There are a number of possibilities, but the bottom line is that if you are a luxury home buyer looking in the west side of Silicon Valley, this may be a great opportunity for you!
Please call or email me if you’d like more information on Los Gatos real estate market conditions.