A resource for folks living in or moving to Los Gatos, by Mary Pope-Handy

Appreciation

Appreciation in the Blossom Streets near Alta Vista School (along the Los Gatos and San Jose borders)

March 25, 2013

This last weekend I was holding open my new listing in west Los Gatos at 212 More Avenue. A few people asked me how Los Gatos is faring in terms of appreciation now as compared to the height of the market a few years ago. While places like Cupertino and Sunnyvale are already well past that previous peak, other west valley communities are sneaking up on equaling it. The Alta Vista neighborhood, on the San Jose (Cambrian Park) and Los Gatos border, is precisely there (as is most of Los Gatos under $2 million). The Alta Vista neighborhood should hit peak pricing very soon. So far this year, there’s only one closed sale in this neighborhood due to very low inventory levels, but within a couple of months we should have more complete data, and I think by late summer we’ll see new highs.

I spent quite a bit of time on our MLS, pulling sales within a defined area of the map (between and including Blossom Valley Drive to Blossom Crest, over to Blossom Wood and across to Sycamore Ct. – basically all the Garcia built homes, mostly in Cambrian) going back to 1999 (that’s as far as the data seems to go). Some years had more sales than others. Most are in San Jose, a few in Los Gatos. Some have been added onto, and some are still small 1100 SF ranch style homes. All of those disclaimers aside, here’s how the average sold price per square foot looks, year by year, and where it appears to be headed with my red trend line (on par with the old high point).

Blossom Streets near Alta Vista School Appreciation 

So for all of you home owners who longed for those 2006 prices – looks like this may be your year! Call or email me if you’d like a no-pressure, no-hassle, no-obligation consultation on home selling here in the Alta Vista Neighborhood or anywhere in the greater San Jose area.

For more reading:

The Cambrian Real Estate Market Update

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

How Does the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Compare This Year to Last Year?

July 12, 2008

The Los Gatos real estate market is composed of many micro-markets in housing type, location, price point and condition. A Los Gatos condo in one school district may be in an entirely different type of market than an estate home with a view of the Santa Clara Valley or a golf course, of course.

Overall, though, the market here in Los Gatos is healthier than in many other areas within Silicon Valley. One one of measuring the health of the housing market is to follow the absorption rate. The absorption rate reflects the amount of time it would take for the current inventory of homes for sale to be bought up if no new homes came on the market and sales continued at their current pace. It can be days of inventory, weeks of inventory, or months of inventory tracked.

The National Association of Realtors uses 6 months of inventory as the tipping point between the market favoring buyers vs sellers. Under 6 months’ inventory is said to be a sellers’ market, and over 6 months is said to be a buyers’ market. In the San Jose area, though, we are behind on housing starts and are used to homes selling fairly quickly, so most sellers will not feel as though 4, 5, or nearly 6 months’ of inventory is really a market in their favor. They expect to sell in a few weeks, not a few months.

Here’s a graph I did of the months of inventory in the Los Gatos real estate market for the first half of 2008 (in green) and also, for comparison’s sake, the first half of 2007:

Graph comparing the Los Gatos real estate market's absorption rate in the first half of 2008 vs same months in 2007.


As you can see, the market was worse for buyers (better for sellers) in the same timeframe in 2007 as it is now. Since the months of inventory is a ratio of that month’s closed sales to its active inventory, this data really reflects the month or so prior in terms of when purchase agreements were signed and accepted. So looking at the numbers in April really shows you what was happening appx 30 days earlier (most of our escrows are about 30 days long). In 2008, then, May and June were much better than the 4 months prior, and they reflect contracts written in April and May. June 2008 wasn’t bad compared to earlier in the year, but clearly, the peak of the market was April because May’s closings were the best.

Other data supports this too. I have a subscription to the Real Estate Report and the numbers there suggest that the highest median and average sales prices for single family homes peaked in April too (go to the page for Los Gatos and view the graphs).

Much of 2008 has been off in terms of the usual sales patterns but most years, the peak of the market is somewhere around March or April. At that point, prices frequently hit their high point of the year – great for sellers, not so great for buyers. By summer, the market cools down most years and sellers may be frustrated that they are not seeing the prices from a couple of months earlier in the year. For buyers, though, summer can be ideal since inventory is good and sales are a little lower.

No one can predict if the market will go one way or the other, but I would say that buyers are in a good position now if they want to get into a nice Los Gatos home. The loan situation has calmed down and market conditions are favorable for most segments of the Los Gatos real estate market and there’s a nice selection now. My advice to Los Gatos home buyers is simple: don’t wait!

The Real Estate Market Seems to be Improving in Los Gatos

June 08, 2008

One of the benchmarks realty professionals use in determining the answer to the ever-present question of “how’s the market?” is the absorption rate, or months (or days or weeks) of inventory. The question is this: if no new inventory were to come on the market, how long would it take for the current number of listings to be absorbed by buyers?

A look at the single family home situation in the town of Los Gatos reveals an improvement over recent months. Is it possible that we’re near the bottom of the market? Maybe.

Months of inventory in Los Gatos from May 2007 to May 2008

This graph presents broad strokes in a market comprised of many micro-markets. What is happening in Blossom Manor may not be the same thing happening in the Edelen District or what’s going up in the Aztec or Maya areas, in the Sierra Azule section of town or Belwood or Bicknell Road areas. The home offered at $950,000 in the Union School District is not really “the same market” as one worth $2 million with Los Gatos schools – there are nuances that can totally change the picture!

For more information on the overall Los Gatos real estate or the market in other Silicon Valley areas such as Saratoga, Campbell, San Jose, or the many districts within San Jose such as Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley and Willow Glen, please visit my Real Estate Report online. From there you can get market statistics and trends as well as an analysis of your own home or another in the area.

To learn about your own home or area, please contact me. Or if you’d like a complimentary market analysis, request one from me at www.SiliconValleyHomeValue.com or simply call or email me with the details of your home. Please allow 24-48 hours for me to run the numbers for you.

Los Gatos Appreciation

January 16, 2007

 

Los Gatos Annual Real Estate Trends

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES % Change from Year Before
Area Year Sales Median Price Average Price DOM New Listings Sales Median Price Average Price New Listings
LG 1998 376 $660,000 $735,738 55 687
LG 1999 391 $730,000 $863,248 66 575 4.0% 10.6% 17.3% -16.3%
LG 2000 337 $925,000 $1,157,133 40 538 -13.8% 26.7% 34.0% -6.4%
LG 2001 232 $925,000 $1,164,241 65 731 -31.2% 0.0% 0.6% 35.9%
LG 2002 309 $955,000 $1,096,678 71 706 33.2% 3.2% -5.8% -3.4%
LG 2003 310 $970,000 $1,113,078 90 717 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
LG 2004 466 $1,165,000 $1,294,057 61 905 50.3% 20.1% 16.3% 26.2%
LG 2005 413 $1,251,000 $1,366,305 56 823 -11.4% 7.4% 5.6% -9.1%
LG 2006 299 $1,359,000 $1,504,811 57 662 -27.6% 8.6% 10.1% -19.6%

Los Gatos Annual Real Estate Trends – Single Family Homes

November 26, 2006

Los Gatos Annual Real Estate Trends

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES % Change from Year Before
Area Year Sales Median Price Average Price DOM New Listings Sales Median Price Average Price New Listings
LG 1997 359 $550,000 $641,487 66 611        
LG 1998 376 $660,000 $735,738 55 687 4.7% 20.0% 14.7% 12.4%
LG 1999 391 $730,000 $863,248 66 575 4.0% 10.6% 17.3% -16.3%
LG 2000 337 $925,000 $1,157,133 40 538 -13.8% 26.7% 34.0% -6.4%
LG 2001 232 $925,000 $1,164,241 65 731 -31.2% 0.0% 0.6% 35.9%
LG 2002 309 $955,000 $1,096,678 71 706 33.2% 3.2% -5.8% -3.4%
LG 2003 310 $970,000 $1,113,078 90 717 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
LG 2004 466 $1,165,000 $1,294,057 61 905 50.3% 20.1% 16.3% 26.2%
LG 2005 413 $1,251,000 $1,366,305 56 823 -11.4% 7.4% 5.6% -9.1%

Los Gatos Real Estate Annual Trends – Condos

November 26, 2006

CONDOS % Change from Year Before
Area Year Sales Median Price Average Price DOM New Listings Sales Median Price Average Price New Listings
LG 1997 120 $307,500 $331,610 38 172
LG 1998 141 $369,500 $371,263 38 202 17.5% 20.2% 12.0% 17.4%
LG 1999 139 $415,000 $401,278 41 185 -1.4% 12.3% 8.1% -8.4%
LG 2000 142 $549,500 $546,117 27 168 2.2% 32.4% 36.1% -9.2%
LG 2001 87 $487,500 $508,365 63 243 -38.7% -11.3% -6.9% 44.6%
LG 2002 148 $507,500 $532,005 65 280 70.1% 4.1% 4.7% 15.2%
LG 2003 159 $529,000 $531,194 90 277 7.4% 4.2% -0.2% -1.1%
LG 2004 169 $563,000 $590,146 41 248 6.3% 6.4% 11.1% -10.5%
LG 2005 163 $650,000 $670,409 36 222 -3.6% 15.5% 13.6% -10.5%

DEFINITIONS

Med. Price
Median Price is that at which 50% of properties sold were above that price and 50% were below.
Ave. Price
Average Price is the sum of all prices divided by the number of sales.
Ave. DOM
Average Days on Market is the average time it took to sell all properties.
Newly Listed
How many properties came on the market in the given time period.

Info by Rick Campbell of The RE Report (a subscription I have)

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
Intero Real Estate Services, Los Gatos, CA (Silicon Valley)
408 357-5760 (Direct); 408 204-7673 (Cell); 408 715-0201 (eFax)
www.PopeHandy.com www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
emailto: Mary@PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com

 

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Mary Pope-Handy

Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805

Selling homes in
Silicon Valley, with
special focus on
Los Gatos 

and nearby areas,
including
Monte Sereno,
Saratoga,
Campbell,
and the San Jose areas of
Cambrian and Almaden Valley

Helping Nice Folks to
Buy & Sell Homes
in Silicon Valley
since 1993

 

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