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Los Gatos & Monte Sereno Real Estate Sales Info for June 2010

July 06, 2010

In general, the Santa Clara County real estate market cooled a bit in June with rising inventory and less demand by home buyers, but in Los Gatos it improved very slightly, while in Monte Sereno it worsened.  Below please find a summary from my Real Estate Report (which you can check out for more information on these areas as well as Saratoga, Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Campbell, etc.( Links for each section will take you to the referenced part of the REReport. You may also read a downloadable, 4 page pdf with more articles about the local realty market here.

The Los Gatos (95030 & 95032) Real Estate Market for June 2010 for Houses & Duet Homes

Trends At a Glance Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,250,000 $1,231,150 (+1.5%) $1,078,750 (+15.9%)
Average Price $1,348,340 $1,416,700 (-4.8%) $1,078,250 (+25.0%)
No. of Sales 41 29 (+41.4%) 28 (+46.4%)
Pending Properties 62 61 (+1.6%) 42 (+47.6%)
Active 153 158 (-3.2%) 181 (-15.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.8% 97.5% (-0.7%) 95.8% (+1.0%)
Days on Market 47 46 (+1.8%) 69 (-32.2%)

The Los Gatos median sales price inched up both year over year and month over month.  (So more expensive homes are starting to sell.)  The average sales price of these houses improved significantly year over year (25%) but fell almost 5% month over month.  Closed and pending sales are both up and inventory is down 15% from a year ago and about 3% from last month.  The list price to sales price ratio fell a little and the days on market stayed close to the same from a month ago.  All in all, it is close to a balanced market for houses in Los Gatos according to the Real Estate Report.

Want more info? I also have a weekly report from Altos Research (uses list prices, not sales prices). Altos breaks it down by zip code and the files below are pdfs:

Los Gatos 95030 Single Family Home (houses & duets) Market for the week of July 3 2010
(pdf, will open new window)
Los Gatos 95032 Single Family Home (houses & duets) Market for the week of July 3 2010
(pdf file, will open in a new window)

The Los Gatos (95030 & 95032) Real Estate Market for June 2010 for Condominiums and Townhouses

Trends At a Glance Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $640,000 $555,000 (+15.3%) $635,000 (+0.8%)
Average Price $626,625 $546,612 (+14.6%) $615,000 (+1.9%)
No. of Sales 11 (+37.5%) (+57.1%)
Pending Properties 8 15 (-46.7%) 11 (-27.3%)
Active 52 43 (+20.9%) 57 (-8.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.3% 98.0% (-0.8%) 95.4% (+2.0%)
Days on Market 109 154 (-29.0%) 112 (-2.8%)

The Los Gatos condo & townhome market also improved in June.  Although it is still a buyer’s market, it is creeping its way toward balanced with improving sales prices (both median and average), more closed sales and shrinking days on the market.

If you’d like a little more info on the Los Gatos Condominium & Townhouse Market, please also see these reports from Altos Research, which breaks down the info by zip code (and uses list prices):

Los Gatos 95030 Condo Market for the week of July 3, 2010 (pdf, will open in a new window)
Los Gatos 95032 Condo Market for the week of July 3, 2010&nb
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(pdf, will open in a new
window)

The Monte Sereno (95030) Real Estate Market for June 2010

Monte Sereno has no townhomes or condos, so our market report is reflective only of houses (and estates).

Trends At a Glance Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $2,387,500 $1,632,500 (+46.2%) $1,510,000 (+58.1%)
Average Price $2,387,500 $1,677,500 (+42.3%) $1,510,000 (+58.1%)
No. of Sales 2 (-66.7%) (+100.0%)
Pending Properties 7 (+40.0%) (+16.7%)
Active 39 34 (+14.7%) 30 (+30.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.7% 99.3% (+1.5%) 98.8% (+2.0%)
Days on Market 46 71 (-35.5%) (+475.0%)

Sales prices are rising and the number of sales have increased while days on market have decreased.  But with 39 houses for sale in Monte Sereno and just 2 closed in June, that’s a lot more inventory than demand and reflects 19.5 months of inventory.  The rising number of pendings indicates that things are improving, and hopefully will help to counteract the also rising number of homes on the market. Buyers: this is a good time, generally, to purchase a home in Monte Sereno!

The Los Gatos Mountains (95033) Real Estate Market for June 2010

This area includes both portions in Santa Clara County & Santa Cruz County.

Trends At a Glance Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $762,875 $802,000 (-4.9%) $720,000 (+6.0%)
Average Price $709,993 $844,146 (-15.9%) $823,000 (-13.7%)
No. of Sales 10 12 (-16.7%) (+100.0%)
Pending Properties 6 13 (-53.8%) (-14.3%)
Active 52 43 (+20.9%) 35 (+48.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.3% 95.7% (-0.4%) 92.5% (+3.1%)
Days on Market 70 81 (-14.6%) 200 (-65.2%)

To get all of the data for every city in Santa Clara County and the major districts in San Jose, please check out my current ReReport online.  Additionally, you can check out listing & sales activity in your own neighborhood (see what’s happening on our MLS) by inputting any address in the county on the REReport’s Property Analysis page.  (It loads a little slowly so please be patient.) There’s no registration required for any of this useful information.

Our local market consists of many micro-markets, often varying from one zip code, price point, or school district to another.  Please contact me if you would like information on your specific market.

Los Gatos Home Sales

November 08, 2009

The Los Gatos real estate market is a moving target.  How’s it today?  It depends on which part of the data you study.   Days on the market are longer, but prices are up, sales are up, and inventory is down.

Los Gatos Houses

Los Gatos homes sold and Los Gatos homes for sale:  first note that inventory is way down (from 200 a year ago to 134 now), the number of pending houses is up (from 11 to 51) and the medial sales price is up (though the average is down) year over year.  Are homes still slipping in value, or are they appreciating?  The answer to that question depends on a home’s particular location, price point, school district, and other factors.  Some homes are still going down in value, but others are rising. The days on market are longer, from 32 DOM to 52.    A lot of indicators are “UP” but it’s still not really easy to sell a Los Gatos home today. With 134 actives and just 25 solds, that’s a 5.36 months supply of inventory – close to “balanced”.  With 51 pendings vs 134 actives, it looks like the odds of selling are about 38% in any given month right now.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,110,000 $1,187,500 (-6.5%) $975,000 (+13.8%)
Average Price $1,182,290 $1,152,560 (+2.6%) $1,465,810 (-19.3%)
No. of Sales 25 22 (+13.6%) 15 (+66.7%)
Pending Properties 51 47 (+8.5%) 11 (+363.6%)
Active 134 143 (-6.3%) 200 (-33.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.2% 97.4% (-1.3%) 96.7% (-0.5%)
Days on Market 52 43 (+22.8%) 32 (+64.6%)

To see more data on the single family home sales for October, please see my RE Report for that part of the market.

Los Gatos Condominiums and Townhouses

The Los Gatos townhome and condominium real estate market is likewise better in many ways.  The number of sales is up year over year (9 to 11), pendings are up (5 to 18) and inventory is down from 48 to 37.  Days on the market are longer though, from 33 to 99. So again some mixed indicators.  There’s a shift toward more of a sellers market with the months supply of inventory now at 3.36 months.  Condos and townhomes overall are selling much better than they were a year ago in terms of pricing (up substantially over a year ago, though down from last month).  Buyers are more willing to buy now, probably due to fantastic interest rates and perhaps also some of the great first time homebuyer perks such as the $8000 credit.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $644,000 $741,500 (-13.1%) $555,000 (+16.0%)
Average Price $652,136 $752,833 (-13.4%) $594,222 (+9.7%)
No. of Sales 11 (+83.3%) (+22.2%)
Pending Properties 18 15 (+20.0%) (+260.0%)
Active 37 39 (-5.1%) 48 (-22.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.1% 99.5% (-2.5%) 97.6% (-0.5%)
Days on Market 99 46 (+116.2%) 33 (+201.4%)

 

And to get more details on the Los Gatos condo market, please see my RE Report page with that data.

Overview of the Condo and Townhome Market – Two Year Vantage

September 13, 2009

Let’s take a look at the real estate market for Los Gatos condos and townhomes from a very high vantage point: a two year overview. (Graphs created by me using Clarus Market Metrics, a subscription of my board and MLS.)

For the “really big picture”, let’s start with the “Supply & Demand by Month”, going from August 2007 to August 2009. Green represents demand, and red represents supply.

As you can see, there’s a big gap between available homes and how many are sought & purchased – so clearly this is a strong buyer’s market.

Now let’s turn to the absorption rate, or months supply of inventory. Below is the chart for all of “area 16”, which is Los Gatos/Monte Sereno (with a few homes in San Jose or Campbell along the border included – but by and large, it’s Los Gatos).

Los Gatos real estate: condo and townhome months of inventory Aug 07 to Aug 09

The condo and townhome market has improved tremendously since the doom and gloom of last Decemeber (then nearly 22 months, today less than 5).

As I’ve mentioned in other posts, the market can vary a lot depending on zip code, price point, and school district. This particular tool, the Clarus Market Metrics, does not use schools as a variable, unfortunately. But we can see what happens just with price point by breaking it down to home under and over $500,000.

Immediately below: absorption rate for Los Gatos homes priced UNDER $500,000 (condos & TH):

and next, months of inventory (absorption rate) of homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000:

Interestingly, the “sweet spot” of the Los Gatos condominium and townhome market is not in the least expensive condos and townhouses, but those between $500k and $1 mil. (I should add that there are some condominiums and townhouses priced over a million, but not a lot and the data gets squirrelly due to the low numbers so I am not using them in this post).

This is curious because the lowest priced homes are usually the “hottest”, but not here. Why? I only have theories, but my thinking is this:

  • the lowest priced condos are mostly either senior condos (along Alberto Way, the Los Gatos Commons) or very small units
  • if seniors are hoping to downsize to move to a smaller place, they are probably electing to wait so that their home values “recover” some
  • some people will elect to purchase a single family home in San Jose for $500,000, but perhaps others are buying a more expensive condo or townhouse to enjoy the benefit of the schools – so this would not be super tiny (more than 1 bedroom) since they are purchases for the schools

I may do more digging in the future to see what’s causing this trend, but this is my hunch. I welcome any comments from my readers on what they see happening with the condo market here in Los Gatos.

Are Los Gatos Real Estate Prices Holding Amidst the Financial Meltdown?

December 19, 2008

The Los Gatos real estate market has had a difficult year in 2008. Are things improving now, levelling off, or worsening? What Los Gatos homeowners care about most is value: what’s my home worth now? Today we will look at what list prices are doing among Los Gatos proerties for sale: both single family homes (houses) and condominums and townhomes in both the 95030 and 95032 zip codes.

The data, care of Altos Research, pretty much speaks for itself. The situation varies from one area to the next and one price point to the next. For more detailed information than is presented here, please contact me directly.

I. Broad Overview of Los Gatos homes for sale

First let’s see an overview of list prices for single family homes in Los Gatos by zip code (all price quartiles combined).

 

Los Gatos single family homes for sale (houses), both 95030 and 95032 zip codes, median list price

Next, same type of data but for Los Gatos condominiums and townhomes for sale (both zip codes, median list price).

 

Los Gatos homes for sale, condos, both 95030 and 95032, median list prices of all quartiles combined

II. Closer look at houses for sale in Los Gatos

Next we’ll look more closely at single family homes by zip code and by price point or quartile.

Los Gatos houses in the 95030 zip code area by quartile:

 

Los Gatos single family homes for sale in 95030 by quartile

Los Gatos houses in the 95032 zip code area by quartile:

 

Los Gatos houses for sale in 95032 area, list prices by quartile.

III. Condominiums and Townhomes for Sale in Los Gatos

Next the list pricing for condos in 95030 by quartile

 

List prices of Los Gatos condos for sale in 95030 area by quartile.

And finally, list prices of condos and townhouses for sale in the 95032 area by quartile

 

List prices of Los Gatos condos for sale in 95032 area by quartile.

In summary, it looks as though condo prices have done fairly well overall. In 95030, they are up year over year across the board, and in 95032 they two top quartiles are up. The entry level condos in 95032 appear to have lost value year over year. The reason may be that buyers in these price points are purchasing single family homes outside of Los Gatos instead.

Among houses, the slippage in pricing is fairly slight in both zip codes among the three lower quartiles, but the market difficulties are much more pronounced among the most expensive homes in both of the Los Gatos areas. The Los Gatos luxury market has taken more of a beating than more midrange homes this year? Why is that? There are a number of possibilities, but the bottom line is that if you are a luxury home buyer looking in the west side of Silicon Valley, this may be a great opportunity for you!

Please call or email me if you’d like more information on Los Gatos real estate market conditions.

 

November Los Gatos Real Estate Market Update

November 17, 2008

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Faring?

There are many ways of viewing the Los Gatos real estate market. One approach includes looking at the homes which are currently for sale, or the “active listings”. Altos Research, to which I subscribe, uses this data in analyzing the state of things for the realty market in various cities, towns, and zip codes. Today we’ll look at these active listings in all Los Gatos zip codes, both single family homes and condominiums, and view the data by price quartile whenever the trends seem quite divergent from one price point to the next.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Single Family Homes by Zip Code

First, let’s look at Los Gatos houses in the 95030 area. We’ll begin by viewing list prices by quartile.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Except for the highest priced homes, it seems that asking prices are close to flat in this part of Los Gatos. It doesn’t appear to be a market crash when these numbers are viewed.

Next, let’s see how prices are looking in 95032 among single family homes in Los Gatos:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Again, it’s fairly close to flat pricing now (after clear declines earlier this year) except in the most expensive homes, which really constitute the luxury or estate market, which looks to be having steeper declines. The luxury market in both 95032 and 95030 appears to be hurting the most.

And finally, the same type of data but for the Los Gatos Mountains (zip code 95033 – this is a broad area which is not actually in the Town of Los Gatos but instead is county area).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Interestingly, the luxury homes in the mountains seem to be holding their own better than those “in town”. It appears that all price points in the mountains are doing approximately the same in this realm.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Condos and Townhomes by Zip Code

The Silicon Valley condominium and townhouse market is often a little different than the market for single family homes, and this is true in Los Gatos as well as in much of San Jose. Below, please note the more chaotic path that pricing has taken in the Los Gatos condo market this year:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And oddly, much different in 95032: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Although these two Los Gatos zip codes are quite different from each other, both have been seeing some rises from a low spot earlier this year. The 95030 prices are higher than they were at the beginning of the year in all quartiles. The 95032 prices are higher for the most expensive condos but lower for the bottom two quartiles. I believe that this is because of school districts – the lowest priced condos (except for The Commons, a senior condominium complex) are most all in the Campbell Union High School District rather than in the Los Gatos – Saratoga High School District. (All of 95030 is in the Los Gatos schools area, and perhaps half of 95032 is in the same district and half is in CUHSD instead.)

Inventory of Los Gatos Homes for Sale

Inventory of Los Gatos homes has been rising in most segments of the market. (There are no townhouses or condominiums in the 95033 zip code.)

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The lowest priced condos in the 95030 part of Los Gatos seem to be getting absorbed decently – inventory has barely risen there at all this year.

Days on Market for Los Gatos Homes for Sale – All Zip Codes

Los Gatos Houses in 95030:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Los Gatos Houses in 95032 are seeing declines in the average days on market:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And for condos and townhomes in Los Gatos, 95030, it looks bizarre, with lots of volatility and large ups and downs (not unlike the stock market of late):

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Lastly, Los Gatos days on market for condos in 95032:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

So what can we say of the general trends in Los Gatos homes for sale? For most Los Gatos homes:

  • inventory is rising
  • days on market are rising
  • the condo market was faring worse earlier this year, but is improving now
  • the single family home market has been sliding this year, but overall, it has not been steep

How does this compare to nearby areas? The “median market action index” combines the key factors to come up with a market pulse (higher is in the sellers favor, and lower is in the buyers favor). If we look at just single family homes in the two Los Gatos areas plus Saratoga (95070) and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose (95120), it looks like “we’re all in the same boat”:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The two Los Gatos zip codes are now in the same place. San Jose is doing a little better and Saratoga better still. But the general trends for almost all nearby Silicon Valley real estate markets is a deepening buyers market.

Please call or email me if you’d like to discuss your particular situation.