The Monte Sereno real estate market

Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy
Ranch style home on Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy

The City of Monte Sereno is quite small, with just about 4,000 residents, so the number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small.

For that reason, the data may appear to jump around wildly compared to Los Gatos or Saratoga, which each have about 30,000 people living there. Please take all the stats with a tablespoon of salt, and be sure to view the Los Gatos housing market data to get a more accurate picture of what’s happening with Monte Sereno homes (just add a little to the price tag as homes there tend to sell for a bit more than LG properties).

Also, there are only single family, detached houses in Monte Sereno: no apartments, multi unit housing (2 – 4 plex), no duet homes (attached single family homes). That will be changing soon, however, as the old La Hacienda property (formerly an estate, then a hotel and restaurant) at Hwy 9 and Austin Way will become incorporated into Monte Sereno and condos or townhomes built there.

First up for the market analysis is the Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices, not sales):

 

 

This chart shows a slight seller’s advantage in the market, which is consistent with the rest of the area.

Monte Sereno Real Estate Report (click to view the Real Estate Report)

Trends at a Glance from the RE Report:

Just 6 sales in October, so not a statistically useful pool of data, but double that of last month and a year ago had only 1 sale in October! These kind of low numbers can throw off the whole chart, so take this data with a grain of salt. The sale to list price ratio grew a hair from last month, but is down significantly from a year ago. Days on market are short, usually indicative of a warmer market, and inventory is shrinking (likely in the seasonal trend). To dig a little deeper, I pulled up the 6 sales in October and saw that 1 of them sold for more than, 1 sold exactly at, and 4 sold under list price. One of the listings sold $50,000 over (and lasted only 1 day on market). For the 4 homes that sold under list price, one was an off market sale (0 days on market), and the average days on market for the remaining 3 was about 2 months and the average underbid around $96,000. One of them was on just 25 days and sold within $81,500 of list price, another was on for 112 days and sold at $124,700 below. The speed of the sale seems to correlate with the sale to list price ratio to some extent.

 

Trends At a Glance Oct 2019 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,732,750 (-34.1%) $4,143,750 $4,500,000 (-39.3%)
Average Price $3,019,220 (-18.1%) $3,684,580 $4,500,000 (-32.9%)
No. of Sales (+100.0%) 3 (+500.0%)
Pending (-33.3%) 6 (+100.0%)
Active (-30.8%) 13 (+50.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.1% (+0.1%) 97.9% 102.4% (-4.2%)
Days on Market 35 (-33.3%) 52 12 (+188.9%)
Days of Inventory 45 (-64.2%) 126 180 (-75.0%)

 

And from last month:

 

Trends At a Glance Sep 2019 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $4,143,750 (+38.1%) $3,000,000 $3,650,000 (+13.5%)
Average Price $3,684,580 (+37.8%) $2,673,000 $3,655,000 (+0.8%)
No. of Sales (-40.0%) 5 (-40.0%)
Pending (+20.0%) 5 (+200.0%)
Active 13 (+8.3%) 12 (+116.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.9% (-0.7%) 98.6% 101.3% (-3.4%)
Days on Market 52 (+7.4%) 48 20 (+165.3%)
Days of Inventory 126 (+74.5%) 72 35 (+261.1%)

 

Read moreThe Monte Sereno real estate market

Selling a Los Gatos home: how long will it take?

Shannon Valley Ranch house 2015How long will it take to sell your Los Gatos home?  If you own a house in Los Gatos, 95030 or 95032, the answer is “it depends”. Naturally part of the formula will be the condition of the property and how aggressively it’s priced.  The pace also will be a function of schools and price point.  Generally speaking, the lower priced single family homes tend to sell the fastest (assuming that it’s priced and marketed well and doesn’t have any “issues”).  That’s true in all neighborhoods and subdivisions. (The Los Gatos Mountains area, or 95033, is a different market.)

Today, let’s take a look at the Los Gatos real estate market for home sellers by pricing tier and high school district with a view toward the number of days on the market. (You can read about the ratio of actives to solds and the absorption rate at the article linked below under Related Reading.)

We’ll begin with a look at the town as a whole.  For homes actively listed and not yet sold or sale pending in town, have a look at the number of properties for sale and the days on market (“DOM”) for each price point:

Los Gatos 95030 95032 Active DOM by price point

The average “days on market” for all homes is 70, so you might think that this is how long it will take to get your home into contract.  That’s not the case, though, as some homes never sell (even in a red hot economy like ours). Others sell really fast.

What we can see, though, is that the homes in the lowest price point haven’t been on the market long – a hint that this is the market segment that is moving.

Next, let’s have a look at the part of LG 95030 & 95032 with Los Gatos High School.

Los Gatos Active Listings Days on Market with Los Gatos Schools

Notice that the average days on market for this group is 47, not 70.   Most groups have double digit days on the market.  So perhaps not flying off the market, but not bad by national standards, and certainly faster than the town as a whole.  It looks like the answer to “how long will it take to sell” may be improved by being “in the schools”.

How long will it take in the areas with either Westmont  High or Leigh High? Overall, a much longer “days on market” are present for the active listings with 124. But the lower prices, up to $2 million, are extremely fast with the few homes in that band only being available for about a week or less.

Los Gatos Available homes Days on Market with Westmont or Leigh High School

The actively listed properties are everything available – the good as well as the not so good.  If we look at pending sales, though, we’ll get an idea on how fast buyers take the best homes out of the market.  Let’s check on the homes under contract now.

Read moreSelling a Los Gatos home: how long will it take?

Los Gatos Real Estate Update by Zip Code

The Los Gatos real estate market varies by zip code, school district, neighborhood and price point. Today we’ll view it by zip code (95030, 95032 and 95033 – the latter is the Los Gatos Mountains area and is not part of the “town” but has a Los Gatos mailing address and is generally considered Los Gatos if not properly or officially part of the town).

1.)  First, let’s look at single family homes and some key stats (coming from Altos Research and will be updated weekly):

the median list price of single family homes in these 3 zip codes in Los Gatos plus the city of Monte Sereno, the total inventory of homes for sale in Los Gatos by zip code, homes absorbed, average list price, price per square foot, median lot size, average age, nad more.

Los Gatos 95030 real estate market data:

 

Los Gatos 95032 real estate market statistic:

 

Los Gatos Mountains (not “in town”) 95033 housing market information:

 

Monte Sereno – not a part of Los Gatos but shares many services, so they are often intertwined:

 

2) Next, let’s see how some of these real estate statistic look compared to recent months – below please find the MEDIAN LIST PRICE (not sale price) of homes by zip code, separated out by pricing quartile:

95030 is mostly Los Gatos, but some homes will be in Monte Sereno

95032 is 99% Los Gatos and 1% or so Monte Sereno

The Los Gatos Mountains area – 95033 (more remote and usually far, far more affordable than the town of Los Gatos)

 

 

To see what’s happening with the Los Gatos real estate market via the “solds” please visit my real estate report and view the latest market date & trends for houses in Los Gatos or houses in the Los Gatos mountain communities as well as the condo and townhouse market in the town of Los Gatos.  Additionally, you can check what has sold anywhere in Los Gatos or Santa Clara County generally as long as it was on the multiple listing service!

Los Gatos & Saratoga real estate sales statistics 2005 – 2014

Today I’m able to share with you some statistics pulled together from MLSListings.com by Timothy Proschold of Sereno Group Los Altos (which he’s given those of us in Sereno permission to share). I thought my readers would really appreciate this statistical history of sales in Los Gatos and Saratoga from 2005 to 2014.

A quick, but important, note on the areas included for Los Gatos.  “Los Gatos”, as a mailing address and as an area searched on the MLS, now includes the Los Gatos Mountains (95033) as well as the “in town” or the unincorporated areas close to town with the zip codes of 95030 and 95032. (This is a recent change in the way MLSListings collects data – and it’s messing with us!)  In the study below, all three of these areas are included.  If you are looking at 95033, these figures will be a bit high, and if you’re considering 95032 or 95030, they will be low.   So while we often do compare and contrast Los Gatos and Saratoga, the gap in pricing will be more acute because of the more rural areas include.   Be that as it may, this is great info that I think you will find very valuable – and thanks again to Tim for compiling it for us!

First, the price per square foot for single family homes (SFH) in Los Gatos and Saratoga (these might shake out differently by school district, price point etc.).

Los Gatos & Saratoga Sales Stats (2005-2014)

Similar patterns overall, but Saratoga is currently making a steeper climb in housing values.

Next,  the median sale price and average days on market (DOM) from 2005 to 2014 for houses or single family homes in Los Gatos.

Read moreLos Gatos & Saratoga real estate sales statistics 2005 – 2014

Quick look at the Los Gatos real estate market

May 05, 2014

The Los Gatos real estate market is very healthy, with a strong sale price to list price ratio. As with the rest of Santa Clara County, inventory is extremely low, and that is pushing prices up. Today we’ll get a view of the market using just a few charts, but please click on the links for more info (or call, email or reach out to me if you’d like an appointment to discuss your segment of the market in particular).

First, a chart from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report (click on the link for more information).

Los Gatos Single Family Homes

Trends At A Glance Jan 2014 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price +23.7%$1,770,000 $1,431,000 +13.8%$1,555,000 Average Sales Price +34.8%$1,920,450 $1,424,850 +12.6%$1,704,850 No. of Homes Sold -17.4%19 23 +46.2%13 Pending Properties +31.8%29 22 +61.1%18 Foreclosures Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Short Sales Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Active Listings +2.1%48 47 -7.7%52 Active Foreclosures N/A1 0 N/A0 Active Short Sales -66.7%1 3 N/A0 Sales Price vs. List Price +0.8%101.1% 100.3% +1.7%99.4% Average Days on Market +136.6%74 31 +118.6%34 – See more at: http://popehandy.rereport.com/market_reports?formSubmit=1&searchtype=search&emailtype=search&period=1&report_description=Santa+Clara+County%2C+All+Cities%2C+All+Neighborhoods&area=15&cities=3048&locations=&yearmonth=2014-1&proptype=1&get_report=#sthash.H93BlIu0.dpuf
Trends At A Glance Jan 2014 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price +23.7%$1,770,000 $1,431,000 +13.8%$1,555,000 Average Sales Price +34.8%$1,920,450 $1,424,850 +12.6%$1,704,850 No. of Homes Sold -17.4%19 23 +46.2%13 Pending Properties +31.8%29 22 +61.1%18 Foreclosures Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Short Sales Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Active Listings +2.1%48 47 -7.7%52 Active Foreclosures N/A1 0 N/A0 Active Short Sales -66.7%1 3 N/A0 Sales Price vs. List Price +0.8%101.1% 100.3% +1.7%99.4% Average Days on Market +136.6%74 31 +118.6%34 – See more at: http://popehandy.rereport.com/market_reports?formSubmit=1&searchtype=search&emailtype=search&period=1&report_description=Santa+Clara+County%2C+All+Cities%2C+All+Neighborhoods&area=15&cities=3048&locations=&yearmonth=2014-1&proptype=1&get_report=#sthash.H93BlIu0.dpuf

The Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Market

Next, the same information but for Los Gatos condos and townhomes:

Los Gatos condominiums and townhouses

 

Los Gatos Short Sales: Snapshot of Today's Activity

March 27, 2010

The Los Gatos Short Sale Real Estate MarketWhat’s happening with short sales in Los Gatos?

In the 95030 & 95032 zip codes and with a Los Gatos mailing address (so not necessarily the “incorporated” part that actually belongs to the town per se), for condos, townhomes, houses, and duet homes onlyhomes, right now there are

14 for sale or available (8 houses, 6 condos or townhomes)
16 sale pending
3 closed within the last 30 days (2 houses, 1 condo/TH)

Of the active listings, two of them have been on the market for close to a year.

Info on the Los Gatos short sales which are sold & closed recently:

Of the solds, 2 were houses and one was a townhome. The houses sold for appx 5% less than list, the condo sold for almost 5% over.

If someone were shopping specifically for a Los Gatos short sale, the months of inventory for this subset of the real estate market is currently 4.6 MOI – a seller’s market.  And, like in the rest of the market, the good ones go relatively fast. If the home is well priced, nicely presented and appropriately marketed, there are good odds that the home will go under contract.

The average Days on Market of the solds is 50 (but that’s a bit unfair as their numbers were 114 for the townhome and 51 and 12 for the houses).

Average length of escrow (time between everyone agrees on the contract and when the home actually transfers ownership): about 3 1/2 months. (Most escrows close in about 30 days now, unless they’re FHA backed financing, in which case 45 is more typical.)  This is the hardest part of the whole process – it is very long, with lots of extra steps and contingencies involved, which means there are loads more opportunities for something to go wrong.

What are the odds that a short sale listing will sell and also close escrow?

It used to be that very few short sales would ever make it to the closing table.  A couple of years ago, it seemed that only 20% of short sales were ever closing.  Things are improving, though.  It takes a lot of time and effort, but more often than not, they are selling. (And this is good for everyone.  Banks only make about 40 cents on the dollar on homes they take back in foreclosure, but they make about 65 cents on the dollar in a short sale. It’s all about loss mitigation.)

I ran the numbers and chased down the history on part of the Los Gatos short sale market this afternoon.  (95030 and 95032, houses & duet homes only.)

For the period of January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2009, there were 20 different homes listed for sale as short sale listings in Los Gatos, 95030 or 95032. (Some were listed more than once, by different brokers perhaps, so this is just per address.)  As of today, a year later, here’s the breakdown of what happened to those 20 properties:

12 are sold and closed – that’s 60%
3 are still on the market
1 is currently a pending sale
4 are off the MLS (show as expired, cancelled or withrawn)

Of the four removed from the MLS, some may have sold privately, been lost to foreclosure, or perhaps the owners were able to work out some other solution, such as a loan modification or getting a tenant into the property to help make the payments. 

Overall, though, we do know that 60% of the short sales listed a year ago did eventually sell and close.  Most of the rest are still trying.   

Whether you’re a buyer or a seller interested in working through a short sale, this change in success rates is good news.  You will still need time, skill and patience to work these through, but they are an opportunity – one that seems to be growing all the time. 

Please also see these posts for more information on Los Gatos Short Sales

Silicon Valley Short Sale Listings: Tracking the Numbers in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga and the Cambrian Park Area of San Jose

Browse Short Sale Listings & Bank Owned Properties for Sale in Los Gatos (on my other blog, the Valley of Heart’s Delight)

Los Gatos Residential Real Estate Over Last Two Years

July 01, 2009

How’s the Los Gatos housing market now and over the last two years? The “supply and demand” graph gives a good visual clue as to the challenge of selling in this corner of SiliconValley. Relative to what’s on the market, only a few Los Gatos homes are selling. (Charts and data per Clarus Matrix, a perk of our MLS and real estate board.)

Los Gatos housing supply and demand

Pricing (or “home value”) is perhaps the most important thing to home owners. “What’s my home worth?” is the question. Prices are improving in some segments of the market – homes “in the schools” and under about 1 million are in very high demand and that may be pushing prices upward.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate indicates how long it would take Los Gatos homes for sale to be absorbed by buyers if homes continued to sell at the current rate per month and no new inventory came on the market. (Less than 6 months is a sellers market, more than 6 a buyers market.)

The chart below would have us thinking that the sellers are very happy and that homes are fying off the market – the first chart, though, tells the broader picture of supply & demand. What IS happening, then? Some Los Gatos homes in some prices are selling really well, but many others languish.

Months of Inventory for Los Gatos real estate (home sales)

Inventory is now declining. This is more acute in some price points and school districts than others, but overall, the available supply of Los Gatos real estate for sale is now noticeably less than at the peak.

Los Gatos inventory of homes for sale

The average days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale has jumped around quite a bit. We do seem to be past the peak – but with so much “up & down”, it’s hard to be sure. Let’s hope that the worst is behind us.

A look at all the charts collectively would seem to indicate that although the market is tough on sellers and great for buyers overall, as a whole the town may have already hit its bottom. We won’t know unless things are stable and continue improving for another year or so. And, of course, this is “general information” for our town. Your particular neighborhood could be behaving very differently since micro markets are very important here. Please call or email me for information on your particular market.