Below, find list prices in Monte Sereno over the last year, by price quartile. Interestingly, the 1st and 3rd quartile appears to have been changing downward the most while the highest priced homes seem to be faring the best (remember, though, these are list prices not sold prices).
Now Los Gatos, 95030, where again the highest median list price seems to be holding better than other price points:
And finally Los Gatos, 95032:
In this last group, it looks more clear that the higher the price point, the less the list price appears to be experiencing downward pressure.
Finally, Days on Market in these three areas by quartile.
Monte Sereno, 95030, is mixed.
Los Gatos, 95030 – where it’s really not getting easier to sell a home, overall:
Los Gatos, 95032, things are not so dire as elsewhere – perhaps because prices are lower here than in the other two areas. This seems to be born out by the fact that the highest priced homes are experiencing the longest DOM.
What about the role of school districts in all of this?
Much of 95032 is in the Campbell Union High School District. So I did a little more crunching on my own, looking at school district rather than zip code.
For active listings right now in “area 16” again, here’s what I found for DOM (days on market)
(1) All of “area 16” with Los Gatos Saratoga High Schol District – DOM = 185
Same but a maximum list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 133
(2) All of “area 16” with Campbell Union High School District – DOM = 71
Same but a max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 66
(3) For all of “area 16” without regard to school district, the DOM = 152
Same but with max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 106
(Monte Sereno is 99.5% Los Gatos Schools with only the tiniest sliver falling into Campbell Schools.)
So this is a little surprising – we tend to believe that homes with Los Gatos Schools always sell better than those with Union or Moreland. But is that the case?
Let’s drill it down once more to a more specific price range and see, among the active listings, what’s happening.
Price range: $1,000,000 to $1,400,000. I added the average square footage of the home since the results surprised me and I thought this might be an important factor.
(1) LGSHSD – DOM = 100 (av SF = 1904)
(2) CUHSD – DOM = 42 (av SF 2826)
(3) All schools – DOM = 82 (av SF = 2185)
Within this band of pricing, it appears that the homes may be moving faster in the less expensive part of Los Gatos. Why is this? Perhaps because it’s taken a bigger correction and is now viewed favorably. There could be lots of factors. We could continue breaking it down by neighborhood, by age of construction, and many other factors, including whether or not something was a short sale or bank owned property (which is a separate topic). It might also look different if we picked apart the pendings or solds this way, so this is not comprehensive, but is a general indicator that homes not in the most expensive part of town are selling easlier than those “closer in”.
For help with understanding the home you want to buy or sell, please contact me!
October 05, 2009
It’s early October – many years, we experience an influx of inventory in Los Gatos homes for sale at about this time (between Labor Day and Halloween). Not this year, though. It seems that the uptick in available homes for sale mostly happens in years where it’s a seller’s market. The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market, especially in the 95030 zip code, where prices continue to fall, has not been a seller’s market in most price ranges recently. It appears that many homeowners are holding onto their homes for now – probably until the market recovers. My buyers are noticing the lack of inventory too.
(On a side note: I do have buyers looking for a turnkey Los Gatos home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and a less than 10,000 sf lot for up to 1.5 million. Nothing currently on the market is a fit for them – if you have a home that might work, or know of one not currently on the market, please let me know. Either zip code or school area is OK.)
Today we’ll have a look at the list prices and inventory for two zip codes, which combined generally make up the area included in the Town of Los Gatos and also the City of Monte Sereno: 95030 and 95032. 95030 is Los Gatos and also Monte Sereno. (There are some funky exceptions: one area with the 95032 zip code out by Pollard and Quito actually belongs to Campbell but has a Los Gatos address for postal reasons. Another area near National and Carlton along the Cambrian border has a San Jose, 95124 mailing address but is actually Los Gatos – same thing, for postal reasons the mailing address is off.)
Another caveat – and a big one – is that today’s study does not include a breakdown by school district. This can be a leading indicator of how your particular neighborhood might be faring. Altos does not use this criteria so I can’t factor it in with this study. On August 24th, I did a post on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog on the Los Gatos Real Estate Market that did include the school district information. This is great data but takes many hours to assemble, so it’s not something I can provide often. But have a look there too – many of the trends are unchanged, even if the exact numbers are different:
The charts below were created by me with Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and the right to publish the charts. Altos uses LIST PRICES in its data fyi.
List prices with both zip codes combined, market separated out by quartile over the last 6 months:
Just 95030 – closer to downtown, usually, than most of 95032, and almost 100% “in the schools”, this is a more expensive place to live than 95032:
Now just 95032:
Now inventory – the upper cluster of quartiles is 95032, the lower one is 95030:
Combining quartiles is a little easier (a quartile is 25% of the market so of course the four tiers will always be about the name in number as each other).
What’s interesting is that although the 95030 zip code is usually more in demand (due to downtown Los Gatos proximity and the famed schools), those more expensive homes have not been getting scooped up by the market quite as fast as the homes in 95032. The latter are more affordable – and affordability is key in most price points. The days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale by zip code and quartile:
Altos provides a “median market action index” (greater than 30 is a sellers market) that is quite interesting – note the huge difference:
Next, by zip code and price quartile. 95030 is “all over the board, with some parts trending downward and others moving upward…
Now for Los Gatos 95032, which seems to be behaving more as a unified group than 95030:
In most of the 95032 price points, the market’s been improving. It’s still a buyer’s market, but until August or September, it was improving steadily.
How’s the market? Really needs to be, “how’s your specific market?” The lowest price points in 95030 are selling well – which has been the case for months. The most expensive homes in 95030 are lagging the most – which has also been the trend. The less expensive homes in 95032 are faring better overall. If we were to break 95032 down by school district (as I did in the post referenced above), we’d find that the homes selling the best are the ones with Los Gatos Schools (not Moreland or Union).
For information on your particular corner of the Los Gatos real estate market or the Monte Sereno real estate market, please contact me. I’d be happy to chat with you – no obligation.
June 26, 2009
In addition to doing a post comparing Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, and Saratoga today, I also did one on just the Monte Sereno real estate market in my other blog at ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com. If you are tracking the Monte Sereno housing market, please have a look at this article, which discusses the days on market, inventory level, percentage of homes relisting, and pricing trends. Find it on the ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com site or click directly on this link:
June 12, 2009
As noted many times in this blog about Los Gatos real estate, the market is varied from one price point and school district, among other things, to the next.
The homes in the lowest price points and “in the schools” seem to be selling faster. For today’s view into the market, let’s consider homes in Los Gatos, with Los Gatos Schools, with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, priced at under $1,500,000.
The days on market or “DOM” for all pendings is a misleading number of almost 100 days. If the average DOM is 100, buyers can take their time, right?
But let’s have a closer look and sort the results. If we pull the data apart by the date of the sale (when buyers and sellers agreed on price and terms), a different picture of the market emerges. The average DOM now is 1/3 of what it was for the current pendings PRIOR to June 1st!
|Street Address||Bldg SqFt||DOM||Pend Date|
|NEW YORK AV||1890||95||6/5/2009|
|GOLF LINKS DR||3200||20||6/4/2009|
|LAS MIRADAS DR||1300||12||5/30/2009|
|LA CANADA CT||1150||35||5/29/2009|
|LAS MIRADAS DR||1820||135||5/28/2009|
|LOMA ALTA AV||1496||42||5/12/2009|
|CERRO VISTA DR||1706||18||5/9/2009|
|LOMA ALTA AV||1450||249||4/29/2009|
|GARDEN HILL DR||2016||17||4/24/2009|
|Av DOM all pendings||99.96|
|Av DOM since 6-1||41.44|
|Ave DOM before 6-1||130.94|
While some homes are not selling too fast, the pace appears to be quickening dramatically. It may be awhile before this is seen in the sold data, but it’s very much a “real time” snapshot of the market activity now.
Sellers, if you get your home into great shape and price it aggressively, you may be able to sell your home so fast that it will shock your neighbors.
Buyers, if you are trying to purchase a home that falls into this segment, it’s important to see homes that interest you quickly now, since they may not last a week or two.
If you’d like more information on data pertaining to your home or the type of home you’d like to buy, please contact me. We can set up a meeting and go over the information that matches your own situation.
(Numbers by our MLS, MLSListings.com. Data exported, sorted and crunched by Mary Pope-Handy.)