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The Monte Sereno real estate market

The Monte Sereno real estate market

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The City of Monte Sereno is a popular community bordering Los Gatos, Saratoga, and the Santa Cruz mountains. It’s also quite small, with just about 3,500 residents, so tracking the real estate market trends for the area can be tricky.

The number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small and the data will jump around. Checking the Los Gatos market will also help, but the best pulse on the market will come from particular sales in particular neighborhoods.

Houses make up most of Monte Sereno – there are no commercial buildings, just a post office, city hall, and an elementary school. There are also extremely few residential properties that are not detached single family homes. We don’t track the condo or townhomes in this area as we do in other communities because there just wouldn’t be enough (if any) data for it!

First up for the market analysis is the Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices, not sales). This is updated automatically, so feel free to check this article weekly to see what’s happening now with list prices.

 

 

Below is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Report (click to view the complete Real Estate Report).

Trends at a Glance from the RE Report:

By the end of November this small city had only 2 closed sales and 8 active listings – so take any swings in data with a grain of salt. The current chart shows clear and distinct cooling in Monte Sereno, although some swings in the data may be less dramatic than they seem. Why? One of October’s 4 sales was a luxury property valued over $10M. And with so few sales this chart can swing wildly due to one or two exceptional homes!

Inventory, pending, and closed sales dipped month-over-month, and activity is well below last year. The sales to list price ratio also tends to swing wildly with so few sales, but finally dipped below 100% on average for two consecutive months. Overall homes are taking much longer to sell, averaging over a month on market.

Again, with so few sales the data is often sqewed by one or two extraordinary sales. With high demand and extremely low inventory, Monte Sereno remains in a seller’s market with clear cooling.

 

Trends At a Glance Nov 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,424,000 (-14.9%) $4,025,000 $4,000,000 (-14.4%)
Average Price $3,424,000 (-37.7%) $5,497,500 $4,900,330 (-30.1%)
No. of Sales (-50.0%) 4 (-33.3%)
Pending (-25.0%) 4 (-62.5%)
Active (-11.1%) 9 (+33.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 93.3% (-4.3%) 97.5% 105.1% (-11.3%)
Days on Market 48 (+171.4%) 18 (+519.6%)
Days of Inventory 116 (+71.9%) 68 58 (+100.0%)

MLS info pulled directly: the charts below all were pulled from MLS Listings.com

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Los Gatos Mountains 95033 Real Estate Market

Looking for great schools, more space, and a less suburban environment? Just beyond the borders of the Town of Los Gatos lies a collection of rural communities situated in the scenic Santa Cruz Mountains, or Coastal Range and together there are known as “The Los Gatos Mountains.” This large region sits above Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, and a bit north of there in Santa Clara County, and just over the summit and toward Scotts Valley, Soquel, and Aptos in Santa Cruz County. As the description implies, it is a sprawling area and within it there are different school districts, views, levels of sunshine, natural hazards such as earthquake faults, and amenities which can all impact housing prices and real estate market trends and the market may be very different from one segment or price point to another.

All of these areas fall under the 95033 zip code and have a Los Gatos mailing address, so they are viewed together. Don’t be confused into thinking that areas in the Los Gatos Mountains are the same as the Town of Los Gatos, though – they are quite different.

 

95033 Los Gatos Mountains Real Estate Market Update

Unfortunately, my usual resource, the RE Report, has no section for the Los Gatos Mountains. Instead, the analysis I have written below is based off of data collected directly from the MLS over September and to date in October.

In the month of September, 6 homes sold in the 95033 mountain area of Los Gatos. Sale price ranged from $550,000 – $1,950,000 with an average of $1,055,750. Wide ranges like this are not unusual. While lot size is usually larger than in-town properties it can also vary a great deal, as does building age and size. For instance, the highest priced home had nearly 10 times the building size of the lowest priced property. Now let’s compare this with October sales, since we are coming towards the end of the month. This time, the range of sales is between $890,000 – $1,887,500 with an average of $1,330,625. What does this show us? The range is fairly consistent. In the mountain area you can still readily find properties for under $1 million – something we are not seeing in any other Los Gatos market at the moment – but you can also find large properties with big homes selling at what would be the medium to high-end for an in-town home.

What else can we learn from the sold listings in September and October? Well, the listing price tells us a lot. In September, only one of the six homes sold for higher than list, two sold exactly at list, and three sold below list price. In October, one out of four sold above list price and the rest sold for less than listed. Inventory is taking longer to sell as well. Some homes are still selling rapidly with two selling in under a week last September, but many are taking longer; in the same month, one sold that was on market for 204 days. The average days on market for September 62 days and 45 days in October, while most of the South Bay has an average of a month or less. What does this all mean? Buyers are having an easier time in the mountain market. Listings on-market longer are receiving fewer offers, and offers under list price are more regularly being accepted. The fastest selling properties where there is greatest demand and where homes have sold over list are within a range of $1 – $1.3 million, which would be considered entry-level in the rest of town but is mid-priced here.

So what about active listings? There are currently 15 active properties on the market. The most recent listing has been on the market only 4 days, while the longest has been active for 238, with the average being 117 days on market. List price ranges from $550,000 – $5,800,000 with an average list price of $1,863,267. Another way to tell that this market is cooler than elsewhere in Silicon Valley is the number of active vs sold, which shows that there is a lower ratio of demand to inventory in the mountain market.

Although the market is noticeably cooler in the mountains than in town and many other areas around South Bay, the market here is still more active than it usually is. Buyers not wanting to deal with the stress of the strained seller’s market, or who are looking for lower-priced homes and don’t mind the drive and other special concerns with hillside properties will find the Los Gatos 95033 market to be a good option.

 

Mountain Market Trends by Quartile

Below is a chart taken from the October 2017 Altos Research market update. It divides properties into four price quartiles to show variances in market trend. Surprisingly, the last year has been looking a little backwards with prices rising in winter and falling in spring. This might have to do with the available inventory elsewhere, since we typically see more homes go on market around spring and inventory lessening in winter, giving buyers fewer options. The luxury market bounces around a lot because of the extreme variety of homes in that range.

 

Live Altos Charts

While I do not frequently update the Los Gatos Mountain market post (there are agents who specialize in the mountain market – I am not one of them, though I have sold a number of mountain homes) the charts below will always be up to date. These are live charts, regularly updated and constantly tracking sales and listings from the MLS.

 

The median list price of homes for sale in the Los Gatos Mountains 95033 – all price points combined:

 

The median list price of homes for sale in the Los Gatos Mountains 95033 – showing info by price quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Average days on the market (number of days the home’s been listed for sale on the MLS), all price points combined:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Average days on the market for 95033 by pricing tier – it’s typically erratic as the amount of inventory tends to be small:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

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 How’s the Real Estate Market in the Los Gatos Mountains 95033?

 

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(all data current as of 12/9/2022)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 
 

Los Gatos Real Estate Update by Zip Code

The Los Gatos real estate market varies by zip code, school district, neighborhood and price point. Today we’ll view it by zip code (95030, 95032 and 95033 – the latter is the Los Gatos Mountains area and is not part of the “town” but has a Los Gatos mailing address and is generally considered Los Gatos if not properly or officially part of the town).

1.)  First, let’s look at single family homes and some key stats (coming from Altos Research and will be updated weekly):

the median list price of single family homes in these 3 zip codes in Los Gatos plus the city of Monte Sereno, the total inventory of homes for sale in Los Gatos by zip code, homes absorbed, average list price, price per square foot, median lot size, average age, nad more.

Los Gatos 95030 real estate market data:

 

Los Gatos 95032 real estate market statistic:

 

Los Gatos Mountains (not “in town”) 95033 housing market information:

 

Monte Sereno – not a part of Los Gatos but shares many services, so they are often intertwined:

 

2) Next, let’s see how some of these real estate statistic look compared to recent months – below please find the MEDIAN LIST PRICE (not sale price) of homes by zip code, separated out by pricing quartile:

95030 is mostly Los Gatos, but some homes will be in Monte Sereno

95032 is 99% Los Gatos and 1% or so Monte Sereno

The Los Gatos Mountains area – 95033 (more remote and usually far, far more affordable than the town of Los Gatos)

 

 

To see what’s happening with the Los Gatos real estate market via the “solds” please visit my real estate report and view the latest market date & trends for houses in Los Gatos or houses in the Los Gatos mountain communities as well as the condo and townhouse market in the town of Los Gatos.  Additionally, you can check what has sold anywhere in Los Gatos or Santa Clara County generally as long as it was on the multiple listing service!

Los Gatos Real Estate List Prices and Inventory by Zip Code & Price Quartile

October 05, 2009

 

It’s early October – many years, we experience an influx of inventory in Los Gatos homes for sale at about this time (between Labor Day and Halloween). Not this year, though. It seems that the uptick in available homes for sale mostly happens in years where it’s a seller’s market. The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market, especially in the 95030 zip code, where prices continue to fall, has not been a seller’s market in most price ranges recently. It appears that many homeowners are holding onto their homes for now – probably until the market recovers. My buyers are noticing the lack of inventory too.

(On a side note: I do have buyers looking for a turnkey Los Gatos home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and a less than 10,000 sf lot for up to 1.5 million. Nothing currently on the market is a fit for them – if you have a home that might work, or know of one not currently on the market, please let me know. Either zip code or school area is OK.)

Today we’ll have a look at the list prices and inventory for two zip codes
, which combined generally make up the area included in the Town of Los Gatos and also the City of Monte Sereno: 95030 and 95032. 95030 is Los Gatos and also Monte Sereno. (There are some funky exceptions: one area with the 95032 zip code out by Pollard and Quito actually belongs to Campbell but has a Los Gatos address for postal reasons. Another area near National and Carlton along the Cambrian border has a San Jose, 95124 mailing address but is actually Los Gatos – same thing, for postal reasons the mailing address is off.)

Another caveat – and a big one – is that today’s study does not include a breakdown by school district. This can be a leading indicator of how your particular neighborhood might be faring. Altos does not use this criteria so I can’t factor it in with this study. On August 24th, I did a post on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog on the Los Gatos Real Estate Market that did include the school district information. This is great data but takes many hours to assemble, so it’s not something I can provide often. But have a look there too – many of the trends are unchanged, even if the exact numbers are different:

The charts below were created by me with Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and the right to publish the charts. Altos uses LIST PRICES in its data fyi.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

List prices with both zip codes combined, market separated out by quartile over the last 6 months:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Just 95030 – closer to downtown, usually, than most of 95032, and almost 100% “in the schools”, this is a more expensive place to live than 95032: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Now just 95032: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Now inventory – the upper cluster of quartiles is 95032, the lower one is 95030: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Combining quartiles is a little easier (a quartile is 25% of the market so of course the four tiers will always be about the name in number as each other). Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What’s interesting is that although the 95030 zip code is usually more in demand (due to downtown Los Gatos proximity and the famed schools), those more expensive homes have not been getting scooped up by the market quite as fast as the homes in 95032. The latter are more affordable – and affordability is key in most price points. The days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale by zip code and quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Altos provides a “median market action index” (greater than 30 is a sellers market) that is quite interesting – note the huge difference:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Next, by zip code and price quartile. 95030 is “all over the board, with some parts trending downward and others moving upward…
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Now for Los Gatos 95032, which seems to be behaving more as a unified group than 95030:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

In most of the 95032 price points, the market’s been improving. It’s still a buyer’s market, but until August or September, it was improving steadily.

How’s the market? Really needs to be, “how’s your specific market?” The lowest price points in 95030 are selling well – which has been the case for months. The most expensive homes in 95030 are lagging the most – which has also been the trend. The less expensive homes in 95032 are faring better overall. If we were to break 95032 down by school district (as I did in the post referenced above), we’d find that the homes selling the best are the ones with Los Gatos Schools (not Moreland or Union).

For information on your particular corner of the Los Gatos real estate market or the Monte Sereno real estate market, please contact me. I’d be happy to chat with you – no obligation.

Rising Prices in Los Gatos?

August 09, 2009

Are home prices rising in Los Gatos? It does appear that way. What is reported, though, may not be what it seems.

Below are the stats for the closed sales in July – they are still off, year over year, considerably, but they are up from the month before.

Los Gatos Single Family Home Statistics – Closed Sales

Trends At a Glance Jul 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,185,000 $1,080,000 (+9.7%) $1,347,500 (-12.1%)
Average Price $1,333,290 $1,082,350 (+23.2%) $1,492,650 (-10.7%)
No. of Sales 28 27 (+3.7%) 26 (+7.7%)
Pending Properties 23 40 (-42.5%) 23 (0.0%)
Active 168 157 (+7.0%) 164 (+2.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.0% 95.8% (+0.1%) 98.3% (-2.4%)
Days on Market 62 66 (-6.3%) 31 (+96.8%)

Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Statistics – Closed Sales

Trends At a Glance Jul 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $518,000 $635,000 (-18.4%) $668,000 (-22.5%)
Average Price $534,806 $615,000 (-13.0%) $605,600 (-11.7%)
No. of Sales 8 7 (+14.3%) 5 (+60.0%)
Pending Properties 12 9 (+33.3%) 5 (+140.0%)
Active 45 52 (-13.5%) 54 (-16.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.2% 95.4% (+4.1%) 95.3% (+4.2%)
Days on Market 86 112 (-23.7%) 44 (+94.9%)

What does it mean?

Clearly, while single family home sold prices are higher than a month ago, this is not the case for condos and townhomes (which have been “beat up” in this market, all over San Jose and also countywide). This is our first clue that “the Los Gatos Market” is again not one unified block, with everyone benefitting equally. Rather, there are micro-markets. Part of the market is advancing strongly – the lower priced homes in the Los Gatos School District – and those homes are selling and appreciating briskly. Other parts of the market, such as the townhouse and condominium market, the luxury market, and the homes not in the Los Gatos school area, are not faring as well. In fact, most homes in Los Gatos are not selling at all, and overall, it is still very much a buyer’s market, but it IS improving.

Below, please see a chart displaying the “market barometer” for Los Gatos. N the gap between the number of properties on the market (168) and those sold (28) – divide the former by the latter to get the “months of inventory”, which is 6 months right now. According to the National Association of Realtors, 6 months is a “balanced market” or a “neutral market”.

How can this be? How is it possible for it to be a neutral market (or in some segments of Los Gatos, a buyer’s market) when prices are rising (and homebuyers are experiencing multiple offers in places)?

It’s not happening in every segment of the Los Gatos market, that’s how. The homes that are selling are doing well. But many – most – remain unsold.

 

Broad sweep – here’s a view of inventory by Los Gatos zip code (95030 and 95032):

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As you can see, inventory is rising among homes in the 95030 part of Los Gatos, but falling among 95032 (often more affordable).

Here’s the 95030 zip code area by price quartile:Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And here’s the 95032 part of Los Gatos by price quartile:Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Unfortunately, I cannot break out the school district differential with this subscription, but anecdotal information indicates that homes “in the schools” are the ones selling with multiple offers if they are priced low (close to or under $1 million). So I went to the MLS and checked a few numbers myself.

Right now in 95030 and 95032, there are 47 single family homes for sale in the Campbell Union High School District (meaning Leigh High & Westmont High), and 4 closed sales of the same in the last month. That is an 11.75 month supply of inventory.

Right now in 95030 and 95032 there are 159 single family homes for sale in the Los Gatos-Saratoga High School District, with 28 closed sales in the last month, which is a 5.67 month supply of inventory.

Price point aside
, the school district is the driving force.

List prices by zip code in Los Gatos:Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Prices are rising more in the 95032 part of Los Gatos than in the less-affordable 95030 part of town. Knowing what we do about the months of inventory, what we see are that the most affordable homes with the schools are the “hot” segment of the market.

What homes are these? The ones where a buyer can get into a single family home for close to a million dollars or less (up to about 1.3 mil max) and enjoy the Los Gatos Schools. Even so, houses must be “turnkey” and priced aggressively.

Homes outside of this parameter – which is most of the Los Gatos real estate market – are struggling.

Please contact me for help in buying or selling a home anywhere in Los Gatos.