The Los Gatos real estate market for single family homes has been slowly cooling down a little – as a whole. Part of it is the luxury tier, which moves slower than entry or mid level priced properties. When the luxury price strata swells, it can skew the numbers to look like everything is cooling down, when that may not be the case.
Months of inventory in Los Gatos: a quick look
Just now I went to the MLS and pulled the number of active single family homes in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 (72) and the number of sold and closed in the last 30 days (19) to check on the overall absorption rate or months of inventory. If we divide the active listings by the closed listings in the last 30 days, we get the months of inventory – so 72 / 19 = 3.79 months of inventory for the whole of MLS area 16 in Los Gatos. For our area, that is pretty close to balanced (4 months or so), but just a bit in the seller’s favor. In other parts of the US, balance is at around 6 months.
If we shift to viewing just houses and duet homes offered up to $2 million, it’s a very different view of the market. In this case, there are 17 active listings and 11 sold in the last 30 days, so just 1.55 months of inventory. This is the entry level price point for Los Gatos 95030 and 95032. It’s a little lower for the Los Gatos Mountains.
(I have a separate post on the Los Gatos months of inventory that I’ll update soon, breaking it down by price point and high school district to better pinpoint the individual markets within LG.)
What is selling best in LG right now?
Of the 19 closed sales in the last 30 days, 11 were under $2 million (about 58%), 5 were between $2 and $3 million, 2 between $3 and $3.6 mil, and 1 at over $6 mil. The high end price point tends to be at around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County.
For the houses under $3 mil, the average days on market was 40, the average list price was $1,958,866 and the average sale price just a little more at $1,971,431. For those transactions, the average living space square footage was 2,197 sf and average lot size 11,948 SF.
Los Gatos Trends at a Glance for 95030 & 95032
Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that will be live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices, fyi.
The real estate numbers below reflect realty data gathered the first week of the month for the past month in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full REReport here. Prices are down both year over year and month over month, and the sale to list price continues to slip while days on market rise.
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,045,500 (-12.3%)||$2,332,290||$2,230,000 (-8.3%)|
|Average Price||$2,412,780 (-3.1%)||$2,489,320||$2,699,150 (-10.6%)|
|No. of Sales||26 (-27.8%)||36||27 (-3.7%)|
|Pending||32 (+6.7%)||30||38 (-15.8%)|
|Active||73 (-3.9%)||76||61 (+19.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||98.7% (-1.5%)||100.2%||101.1% (-2.3%)|
|Days on Market||35 (+4.4%)||33||35 (-1.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||84 (+33.0%)||63||68 (+24.3%)|
Trends at a Glance for the Los Gatos Mountains
The RE Report has some info on the Los Gatos Mountains, but I do not believe it covers all of what we would have as 95033 or MLS “area 23”. You can see the mountains info market here:
Just 7 closed sales in the mountains in August, so I would not trust the general numbers that much. Better would be checking sales in your particular part of the mountains, such as Upper Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc., to see what the market is doing.
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2019||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,250,000 (+29.5%)||$965,000||$997,500 (+25.3%)|
|Average Price||$1,233,210 (+35.0%)||$913,438||$955,125 (+29.1%)|
|No. of Sales||7 (-12.5%)||8||10 (-30.0%)|
|Pending||11 (+22.2%)||9||12 (-8.3%)|
|Active||43 (-4.4%)||45||44 (-2.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||97.9% (+0.9%)||97.0%||106.2% (-7.8%)|
|Days on Market||40 (-1.8%)||41||29 (+36.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||184 (+9.2%)||169||132 (+39.6%)|
Los Gatos Home Sale Trends: it really depends on your segment of the market
How’s the real estate market in the Town of Los Gatos? The real estate market trends in Los Gatos varies from one price point and neighborhood to the next, from one type of housing to the next, and even between the town’s two zip codes, 95030 and 95032. Here we’ll take a view of the overall movement in the market; please understand that it may or may not apply to your particular Los Gatos home so please call or email me for specific information relating to your property.
Overall, Los Gatos continues to be a seller’s market, though not as deep as in other places in Santa Clara County (it’s wild in Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Palo Alto). Inventory is better than a year ago, inching toward more normalcy while remaining on the scarce side.
Today I pulled the data from MLSListings.com using their “statistics” tool (any Realtor can do this who’s a member of the MLS). The numbers below represent single family homes, or houses, in the Los Gatos zip codes of 95030 and 95032, all price ranges, school districts, home sizes etc.
Real Estate Market Trends in Los Gatos
The luxury market over about $3 or $4 million is usually more sluggish than the entry level homes, so what happens if we don’t go that high?
And now, same criteria but just homes under $ 2,000,000:
As you can see, the sale price to list price ratio for these 240 houses is a little higher and the days on market a bit shorter if we focus on just the homes offered at under $2 million. We could further refine this ad infinitum but Realtors often say that the best price will come with a fast sale (some sellers feel like if the home goes sale pending in just 2 weeks, it was too soon and they left money on the table). So let’s check it out. The next set is the same as above but only for homes that went under contract in 14 days or less:
Not only are the $2 million dollar or less homes the ones moving better, but the 130 of them (out of 240) that did sell within 14 days really moved fast (9 days on average) and with a much higher sale price to list price ratio!
This is why it is so key to drill down what’s happening to the micro market level. The monthly average for 95030 & 95032 in Los Gatos was 101.3% for all homes, but how very different it is for those under $2 million that sell within a couple of weeks! Home buyers and real estate investors who rely on only those general numbers will be 4% off (about the amount of a typical price reduction) – plenty enough by which to lose the sale.
What can throw your Los Gatos property’s home values:
- having a pool with a small backyard (pool removal may make you money) or NOT having a pool with an acre or more
- additions that you love but most buyers consider a detraction
- smaller than normal kitchen
- home in worse repair or lack of updating than typical
- being adjacent to something undesirable, such as a busy road, high voltage lines, or train tracks
- bad odors from pets, strong cooking, cigarette or cigar smoke etc.
If you are thining of buying or selling in Los Gator or nearby, please reach out to me and let’s talk about working together. To be successful and to get the most out of your transaction, it’s key to get the data that is relevant to the house in question and not just wing it based on zip code or city wide data. Los Gatos real estate and Silicon Valley real estate require a more sophisticated approach!
For those who want to do more research, here is a great resource
For info on Los Gatos or anywhere in Santa Clara County, San Mateo County or Santa Cruz County, please have a look at my online Real Estate Report.
The Luxury Home Real Estate Market in Los Gatos & Monte Sereno: today I crunched the numbers from MLS Listings to get the absorption rate or months of inventory for estate properties over $2,000,000 in Los Gatos 95030, Los Gatos 95032, Monte Sereno (both 95030 & 95032), and the Los Gatos Mountains 95033. Monte Sereno is a red hot market for estate properties, while the Los Gatos Mountain areas are not moving a lot of super expensive properties. Have a look below.
Next we’ll look at live charts from Altos Research (to which I have a subscription)
List prices of homes for sale in the topmost price quartile in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and the Los Gatos Mountains
Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance
|SEP 2014||PREVIOUS MONTH||YEAR-OVER YEAR|
|Median Home Price||-11.8%||$852,000||$966,350||+101.9%||$422,000|
|Average Sales Price||-5.5%||$867,591||$918,212||+82.1%||$476,330|
|No. of Homes Sold||+37.5%||11||8||+120.0%||5|
|Short Sales Sold||N/A||0||0||N/A||0|
|Active Short Sales||N/A||0||0||N/A||0|
|Sales Price vs. List Price||-4.8%||100.3%||105.4%||+2.0%||98.4%|
|Average Days on Market||+46.0%||24||17||-21.8%||31|
- Median home prices increased by 101.9% year-over-year to $852,000 from $422,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 82.1% year-over-year to $867,591 from $476,330.
- Home sales rose by 120.0% year-over-year to 11 from 5.
- Active listings rose 120.0% year-over-year to 11 from 5.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 2.0% year-over-year to 100.3% from 98.4%.
- The average days on market fell by 21.8% year-over-year to 24 from 31.
Compared To Last Month
- Median home prices slipped by 11.8% to $852,000 from $966,350.
- The average home sales price fell by 5.5% to $867,591 from $918,212.
- Home sales Up by 37.5% to 11 from 8.
- Active listings dropped 15.4% to 11 from 13.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 4.8% to 100.3% from 105.4%.
- The average days on market increased by 46.0% to 24 from 17.
For more information, data, and opinion on the market, please visit my online Real Estate Report. There you will find the latest stats on not just Los Gatos, but all the cities within Silicon Valley and the major districts within San Jose.
May 05, 2014
The Los Gatos real estate market is very healthy, with a strong sale price to list price ratio. As with the rest of Santa Clara County, inventory is extremely low, and that is pushing prices up. Today we’ll get a view of the market using just a few charts, but please click on the links for more info (or call, email or reach out to me if you’d like an appointment to discuss your segment of the market in particular).
First, a chart from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report (click on the link for more information).
The Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Market
Next, the same information but for Los Gatos condos and townhomes:
February 16, 2013
The Blossom Hill Manor (aka “the Manor” or “Blossom Manor”) is a very highly sought after neighborhood with its close proximity to the highly regarded Los Gatos schools, parks, shops, grocery stores and major transit routes. Homes there are well maintained, many streets are tree-lined and there’s a good amount of community spirit and involvement in this close-in area.
The real estate market in Los Gatos has been steadily improving since the low point in about 2009, but there’s a great deal of variation from one area, price point, school district, age and condition of home to the next. The “fixer” market is different from the luxury market.
What of the Manor? How are prices today compared to the peak in about 2007? Are home values at or near the high point?
The short answer is this: not yet, but getting there. Many of the indicators show consistent appreciation, a buyer population that wants homes there faster than they can come on, and generally very favorable selling conditions. It is not yet a crazy, overheated market – but if the shortage of inventory continues (today there are NO homes for sale except one which is already sale pending in Blossom Manor) and demand continues, it may go that way.
Today I spent most of the day researching the market for this pocket of Los Gatos, and I pulled the stats going all the way back to 1998 to get the 10,000 foot view. Please find that detailed article on my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog:
Blossom Manor neighborhood of Los Gatos
December 31, 2010
Happy New Year, Los Gatos!
This long-term recession and the extremely slow rebuilding of the national and local economy has taken its toll on many businesses and individuals. Still, we have much for which to be grateful. Silicon Valley seems to be leading the nation in the recovery. Thank you, technology: you never seem to get as badly hurt as other sectors, and you bounce back a bit faster too. We are all lucky to be part of this particular part of the US.
Real estate in Silicon Valley and the “south bay” is also faring better than many places. Los Gatos has had a rougher time there, though. Here’s a quick update, and some links to downloadable reports if you’d like more detail on what’s what right this week in Los Gatos homes for sale & the realty climate in general.
Los Gatos has two types of areas – “in town” (95030 and 95032) and “in the mountains” (95033). The 95033 areas are unincorporated and not part of the town per se but have a Los Gatos mailing address and residents there consider themselves residents both of their own area within the mountain communities (such as Redwood Estates) and the town of Los Gatos. The mountain areas tend to be considerably less expensive than the “in town” areas. Of the incorporated zips, 95030 tends to be more expensive, mostly because it is almost exclusively in the Los Gatos School District, whereas much of the 95032 zip code (but not all!) is not in the schools.
(Info and images below are from Altos Research, to which I do have a subscription & the right to use this material.)
Overview of all three zip codes of Los Gatos combined (95030, 95032 and 95033):
Same areas with list prices broken down by quartile:
The view by quartile gives home buyers a decent idea of what they can afford in general in this area – how far their money might be able to go. Locals will realize that it’s a little skewed in that the low, low mountain prices make Los Gatos homes appear more affordable than they are in reality (if someone wants to buy a house in the flatlands of the town). So caveat: buyers, these are VERY general numbers! You will get more for your money in the mountains and less in town.
For houses in the 95030 area of Los Gatos, California:
Want more info on the Los Gatos 95030 real estate market? Click here to view the weekly report from Dec 26, 2010.
For houses in the 95032 area of Los Gatos, CA:
Want more info on the Los Gatos 95032 real estate market? Click here to view the weekly report from Dec 26, 2010.
For houses in the Los Gatos Mountains (95033):
If you’d like to see more articles on the Los Gatos homes & housing market, please click here to see all posts on that category.
Happy New Year, one and all!
Want more info on the Los Gatos 95033 real estate market? Click here to view the weekly report from Dec 26, 2010.
September 05, 2010
The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate markets cooled a bit in August 2010 with significantly fewer fewer sales. This is true both for houses as well as for condominiums and townhouses. A word of caution: although the median and average sales prices are rising, this does not mean, necessarily, that individual homes are rising in value. It may signify just that more expensive homes are selling.
Here’s a quick look at the numbers from my newly updated Real Estate Report (click the links for more info on these categories or for anywhere in the greater San Jose or Santa Clara County areas):
Sales fell 21.2% from the month before, and were up 4.0% year-over-year.
Prices improved in Aug 2010 with the median sales price rising 5.3% from July, up 22.9% compared to a year ago. The average price rose 5.7%, a year-over-year gain of 14.8%.
Inventory fell 1.4% from the previous month, and was down 4.6% from last year.
Big drops in sales combined with significant rise in inventory makes this market especially soft right now. Sales dropped a whopping 40% from the month before, and also fell 40% year-over-year.
Prices did improve in Aug 2010 with the median price climbing 1.2% from the previous month, down 15.6% compared to a year ago. The average price slipped 12.7%, a year-over-year drop of 16.2%.
Inventory climbed 12.7% from last month, and was up 6.9% year-over-year.
Sales declined very dramatically 50% from July, and fell 60% year-over-year.
Prices improved in Aug 2010 with the median price climbing 53.0% from the previous month, up 37.9% compared to last year. The average price rose 32.0%, a yearly gain of 19.4%.
Inventory fell 28.9% from last month, and was up 10.3% year-over-year.
The mountain communities often walk to the beat of a different drummer, and this month is no exception. Sales increased 200% from the month before, and were down 14.3% year-over-year.
Prices fell in Aug 2010 with the median price dropping 17.5% from the previous month, up 30.0% compared to last year. The average price rose 4.1%, a yearly gain of 36.8%.
Inventory rose 6.1% from last month, and was up 75.0% year-over-year.
For specific information on your home or neighborhood, please contact me!
July 17, 2010
Today I want to step back and look not at the micro-markets but at the overall realty market in Los Gatos from January 2005 to the present (through June 2010) and to get a sense of the major trends in our real estate sales.
Ratio of inventory to sales: One of the best ways to gage the health of the local real estate market is to check the ratio between available listings or inventory and homes closed in the last month (that ratio gives us the “months of inventory”). Below please find the numbers of listings and solds per month in Los Gatos beginning in January 2005 and going through June 2010.
The red bars above represent inventory (or available listings) and the yellow represent solds during that month. While there are always more listings than solds, the futher apart they are the better it is for buyers and the worse for sellers. When they are relatively close together, it’s more of a seller’s market (and worse for buyers). You can see that in late 2006 and into early 2007 those two were at their closest – that was a strong seller’s market here.
Looking at the most recent bars on the far right hand side, which are for June 2010, you can see that sales are up a little but listings are up even more. The net result is that it’s swung more into the buyer’s favor. You can scan the last five years and see worse times, though, as in late 2008 and early 2009, when it looked like there was practically a moratorium on sales.
Also, if you find the bars for December for each year, you’ll see that the ratio between listings and solds is better (if you’re a seller). What’s happening there? Many homes are taken off the market during the holidays, but those which stay on have better odds of selling.
Median Sales Price of Los Gatos Homes Sold: The next big question that buyers and sellers have is how much homes are worth. Over the last 5.5 years in Los Gatos, we have seen our usually strong market take a bad tumble beginning in mid 2008 and then roller-coastering a bit from there. Overall, it looks like the “low” point is behind us, but it will take several more months of higher median sales prices for buyers and sellers to be confident throughout Los Gatos. (This is the town as a whole. The market can be very different from one price point to the next – this is just a generalization.)
Average Days on Market: Finally, how long do homes stay on the market in Los Gatos before selling or being pulled from the market?
The average days on market are low for many months in the first half of this time period, but there are some spikes. Just as the ratio of listings to solds is more favorable in December in the second chart, in this one we see that the days on market in December are usually the longest. It is tempting to say that these homes are “picked over” but not every home that is available in December has been on the market a long time. Conversely, the shortest months are often (though not always) in early spring – February through April.
This year, the trend for average days on market has been a bit up and down, but overall it’s better than most of what we’ve been seeing for the last two years. The occasional months with spikes cause us to be less than certain, though, about recovery for this market as a whole.
Absorption Rates for Los Gatos & Monte Sereno Real Estate Market by Sale Type: Short Sale, Bank Owned, Regular Sale
May 26, 2010
The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market has been improving in recent months. Below please find the numbers of Monte Sereno & Los Gatos homes for sale right now, both houses and duet homes as well as condominiums and townhouses, followed by the months of inventory
As you can see, in general the market is “balanced” for houses and condos alike, both hovering close to six months, and is a seller’s market for distressed properties (short sales and bank owned homes). The bargain prices found with short sales and REOs makes them the hot ticket of the market in general. Short sale and bank owned condominiums or townhomes for sale are the sweet spot of the Los Gatos & Monte Sereno realty market right now with just 1 -2 months of inventory.