Months Of Inventory
There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. This post is updated every month or two. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.
These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after I ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the market might actually be empty in those tiers, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?
Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined
The overall MOI for the town as a whole with 95030 and 95032 zip codes shows a mild seller’s market, with post-summer cooling likely in what is a typical seasonal pattern. It is a bit of a mixed market when looking at the town as a whole, but less so when viewed by high school district or price point. We’ll see when the month is over, but already in many parts of Santa Clara County, the real estate market is returning to seasonal patterns with some cool pockets and some which remain hotter.
And here’s the same chart with data from last February. You can see that in mid-winter the inventory was smaller and moving slightly slower.
Looking back farther, here’s the same info for last November – the overall absorption rate isn’t much different from right now, and inventory and sales are neck-and-neck. Almost exactly a year ago, the market doesn’t look too different.
And a reference from April, when the market was red hot:
The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only
Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say).Houses for sale with Los Gatos schools tend to be more pricey than those in neighboring school districts. This isn’t just the schools, but is also a function of being closer to downtown Los Gatos. The lowest priced homes in this area are seldom listed for less than $1 million.
Once again, we’ll compare it against last February. While the overall market is moving faster today than in February, here we can see that for homes in the Los Gatos School District were moving more quickly in winter. While the number of sales hasn’t changed much, inventory has gone up in this sector.
From last November, again, not a ton different between then and now.
December 17, 2013
Sorting out the local Los Gatos real estate market can be a bit tricky, but one of the best instruments for measuring performance is the months of inventory (MOI, or absorption rate). In this article we’ll consider the MOI houses in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 by high school district and price point, since I believe those are the two main drivers of our residential real estate market.
Also, this time I’m adding in the pending sales as an indicator of where the market is going, too – just to cover the bases! Finally, since I did a similar study the first week in November, but without the pendings, I’ll keep those below the current tables for the sake of comparison. Overall, right now we have a brisk 2 months of inventory for houses in Los Gatos. But homes in the lowest price point are selling far faster – at about 10 days of inventory!! The MOI increases very clearly with higher price points, where it becomes increasingly challenging to sell.
About six weeks earlier, it looked like this chart below -the MOI is now a lot faster (4.19 then to 2.04 now) as inventory has shrunk by about a third and sales have increased (21 to 28 now). Perhaps most striking is the change in the luxury or high end market over the last six weeks. It seems far harder to sell a luxury home now as opposed to then.
Please read the full article on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog
April 02, 2013
Sorting out the local Los Gatos real estate market can be a bit tricky, as there are so many variables that can throw the analysis. Among them we have to consider school district, price point, sometimes zip code, proximity to downtown, proximity to positive and negative issues, condition of property and more. As one agent says, it’s a patchwork quilt!
Today let’s just have a view by homes in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 by school district and price point, since I believe those are the two main drivers of our residential real estate market.
First, let’s consider the town as a whole or on average. As of right now, there are 65 houses or duet homes for sale. There are 22 which have sold & closed escrow in the last 30 days. 65/22 = 2.95 months of inventory. Not bad! Five or six months is a balanced market, less is a seller’s market – so right now there’s stronger demand than supply.
Please view the rest of this article on the Valley of Heart’s Delight blog!
May 30, 2012
Months of Inventory for the Los Gatos Real Estate Market by School District and Price Point
The Los Gatos real estate market is “hot” overall – but not equally, and certainly not in all areas or price points! Yesterday I crunched the numbers from my MLS to provide for you the absorption reate or months of inventory. This figure is calculated by getting the count of active listings (not under contract – some statisticians include pending sales as well) and the sales closed in the last month and dividing them. If there are 3 homes for sale and 1 closed in the last month, you have 3 months of inventory. What this means is simple: if no new inventory came on the market, how long, at the current rate of sales, would it be for buyers to “absorb” the current supply of inventory? The shorter it is, the hotter the market. Five or six months is balanced.
Group One: The more affordable homes in 95030 and 95032 in Los Gatos – up to $2 million. Where it says “infinite”, that means that homes are for sale but none sold/closed escrow in thel last 30 days. Where it says N/A, no homes for sale or sold. Have a look:
What’s hot? Up to the $1.5 million point, everything in LG is hot! The cooling starts at $1.5 mil in the part of down with Campbell or Union Schools. For houses “in the schools”, the market remains strong up to the $2 million mark, where it changes dramatically.
How are things for the over $2,000,000 point?
Over $2 million, it’s anywhere from a balanced market to impossible to sell for Los Gatos houses on the market. Homes over $2 million are tough to sell if they don’t feed to Los Gatos High School. But even properties which have LGHS as the school of attendance are challenged to sell in the upper pricing tiers.
Los Gatos Real Estate Report for April 2012 Sales
Prices are up for Los Gatos real estate sales! (Click on link for full data from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report.)
Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032) which closed in the month of April. Things are looking up!
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2012||Previous Month||Year-over Year|
|Median Price||$1,350,000||$1,260,500 (+7.1%)||$1,344,000 (+0.4%)|
|Average Price||$1,431,940||$1,405,640 (+1.9%)||$1,479,120 (-3.2%)|
|No. of Sales||39||38 (+2.6%)||30 (+30.0%)|
|Pending Properties||54||53 (+1.9%)||47 (+14.9%)|
|Foreclosures Sold||3||2 (+50.0%)||0 (N/A)|
|Short Sales Sold||3||1 (+200.0%)||1 (+200.0%)|
|Active Listings||78||88 (-11.4%)||50 (+56.0%)|
|Sales Price vs. List Price||99.6%||100.1% (-0.6%)||96.7% (+2.9%)|
|Days on Market||36||35 (+2.4%)||61 (-41.3%)|
Los Gatos condominium & townhouse sales (click on link for more info)
Improvement month over month, but year over year the numbers are still down.
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2012||Previous Month||Year-over Year|
|Median Price||$616,000||$565,000 (+9.0%)||$715,000 (-13.8%)|
|Average Price||$596,557||$590,294 (+1.1%)||$768,500 (-22.4%)|
|No. of Sales||11||17 (-35.3%)||5 (+120.0%)|
|Pending Properties||21||15 (+40.0%)||13 (+61.5%)|
|Foreclosures Sold||2||2 (0.0%)||1 (+100.0%)|
|Short Sales Sold||1||2 (-50.0%)||0 (N/A)|
|Active Listings||11||20 (-45.0%)||40 (-72.5%)|
|Sales Price vs. List Price||98.1%||96.8% (+1.3%)||97.4% (+0.7%)|
|Days on Market||63||78 (-19.3%)||108 (-41.6%)|
Softer prices prevail in the mountains….
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2012||Previous Month||Year-over Year|
|Median Price||$662,500||$678,000 (-2.3%)||$715,000 (-7.3%)|
|Average Price||$589,750||$651,484 (-9.5%)||$683,750 (-13.7%)|
|No. of Sales||4||8 (-50.0%)||4 (0.0%)|
|Pending Properties||16||8 (+100.0%)||7 (+128.6%)|
|Foreclosures Sold||0||1 (-100.0%)||0 (N/A)|
|Short Sales Sold||0||1 (-100.0%)||0 (N/A)|
|Active Listings||31||32 (-3.1%)||21 (+47.6%)|
|Sales Price vs. List Price||91.6%||99.6% (-8.1%)||93.6% (-2.1%)|
|Days on Market||190||90 (+112.0%)||144 (+32.2%)|
November 16, 2010
The real estate absorption rate, or months of invenory, can vary dramatically from one part of the local Silicon Valley real estate market to the next. Right now in Los Gatos, though, it’s fairly stable or uniform. The months of inventory are not terribly different between sale type & hope type in town. It’s not like that in most of San Jose or Santa Clara County! (Reminder, conservatively, 6 months is a balanced market, more is a buyers market and less is a sellers market.)
Houses in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5.78 MOI
Condominiums and townhomes in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5 MOI
What about short sales?
Short sale houses in Los Gatos, MOI = 5.4
Short sale condos or townhouses in Los Gatos, MOI = 4.5
This is really weird to have the short sales be selling so much better than regular sales. In Sunnyvale it’s the complete opposite! There regular condos and townhomes are selling at the rate of 4.42 MOI but those which are short sales are a whopping 16 months!
To get data and info on the rest of Santa Clara County, please visit my Silicon Valley real estate blog, The Valley of Hearts Delight.
July 26, 2010
As of today, there are 163 single family homes (houses & duet homes) for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032. In the last month, 29 homes in that same area closed escrow. So the months of inventory for Los Gatos houses for sale is 5.62, very close to the benchmark of a balanced market, which is 6 months. (There are also 48 sales which are pending without a release clause, but not all of these will close escrow.)
Here are some quick facts regarding the 29 homes which have closed escrow in the last month.
List price to sales price ratio
- the average list price to sales price is 98% (most homes sold for less than asking price)
- 14 out of 29 sold for less than list price (48%)
- 3 sold right at list price (10%)
- 12 sold for more than list price (41%)
Distressed sales (short sales and bank owned homes)
- 3 of the 29 were short sales (10%)
- 1 of the 29 was bank owned or REO (3%)
- distressed sales (3 +1) accounted for 14% of the solds
Days on market, home size and lot size
- the average Days on Market of these solds was 48
- the average length of escrow was 46 days
- the average square footage of the homes was 2552
- the average square footage f the lot was 15,788
Average list price and average sales price, median list & sales price, highest and lowest price of homes bought
- the average list price was $1,460,754
- the average sales price was $1,437,434
- the median list price was $1,308,000 & median sales price $1,275,000
- the least expensive home sold went for $800,000 (a 1 bed, 1 bath cottage)
- the most expensive home sold for $3,550,000
Price Points of sold homes in Los Gatos
Most of the homes sold between 1 and 2 million dollars. Here’s the breakdown by price points:
Over $3 mil = 1 home
Between $2 mil and $ 3 mil = 2 homes
Between $1 mil and $2 mil = 21 homes
Under $1 million = 5 homes
How fast are homes selling in Los Gatos?
The DOM was 48 as an average, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. While some homes sold only after many months, a number of them sold fast:
Within 1 week = 6 (21%)
Between 1 and 2 weeks = 4 (14%)
Between 2 and 3 weeks = 5 (17%)
Between 3 and 4 weeks = 2 (7%)
All DOM at or under a month = 17 = 59% of the sales. So the odds are very good that if your home is priced right, it will sell in the first 1-3 weeks on the market. The most sales of these “sold quickly” homes happened in the very first week.
What about all the homes that have not sold? What can the owners learn from this? First, your best chance of selling is early on in the listing period. If you get to the one month mark, the chances begin diminishing that you can sell without a price change. Do everything you can to make your home turnkey and super accessible that very first week or two especially!
What is key to sales success is generating a good amount of qualified traffic, again especially early in the game. In Los Gatos, having open houses and having the home open for the broker’s tour are both important (at least initially – less so after 2 or 3 weeks on the market). If you are not getting at least 3 to 5 showings per week, you may have a problem. (Disclaimer: this is “in general” and may not apply to luxury estates and certain other properties.) Having overly restrictive showing schedules makes it hard to show and hard to sell.
For homes priced below $2,000,000 it is really not a bad market right now for sellers or buyers – it is pretty balanced overall. In some areas there’s more competition then sellers would prefer, but in general these homes are moving when priced right, nicely staged and well marketed.
Absorption Rates for Los Gatos & Monte Sereno Real Estate Market by Sale Type: Short Sale, Bank Owned, Regular Sale
May 26, 2010
The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market has been improving in recent months. Below please find the numbers of Monte Sereno & Los Gatos homes for sale right now, both houses and duet homes as well as condominiums and townhouses, followed by the months of inventory
As you can see, in general the market is “balanced” for houses and condos alike, both hovering close to six months, and is a seller’s market for distressed properties (short sales and bank owned homes). The bargain prices found with short sales and REOs makes them the hot ticket of the market in general. Short sale and bank owned condominiums or townhomes for sale are the sweet spot of the Los Gatos & Monte Sereno realty market right now with just 1 -2 months of inventory.
October 16, 2009
As readers of this blog know, Los Gatos is full of micro-markets, and that can make generalizations about how the “Los Gatos real estate market” is doing a bit skewed. So whatever you read online, or hear about in your neighborhood or from friends, do take with a grain of salt since your home may or not be similar to whatever other home you’re hearing about in terms of how it might sell (or if you’re a buyer, the home you may want to purchase may be different….).
Disclaimer aside, I did a few minutes of data-collecting on MLSListings just now for single family homes (houses or attached/duet homes, but not condos or townhomes) in the town of Los Gatos (not Monte Sereno, but LG with zip codes 95032 and 95030). It appears that the general trend continues: the most affordable Los Gatos homes, generally, are selling fairly well.
What I did was run the numbers (agents: using the “preview” button on REIL), then simply added two other criteria: high school district (Saratoga-Los Gatos High School District and Campbell Union High School District) and then list price of up to $1.5 million. Then I figured out the absorption rate, or the months of inventory (MOI). The solds are homes which have closed in the last month.
Where the MOI is greater than 6, it is a buyer’s market, and where it’s under 6 it is a seller’s market – six months is considered a “balanced” market.
So, looking at the first set, for Los Gatos overall the absorption rate is 5.6 months – or very close to a balanced market. But we know that some areas and price points are selling much slower than others. Surprisingly, when all of Los Gatos with “the schools” are considered, the MOI is 7.7. Given that it feels like entry level homes in that part of town feel like they’re flying off the market, this doesn’t sound right. So look at the second group of numbers, where the price range is limited to those under 1.5 million. We can see that there are only 39 such homes for sale now (vs 101 for all price points) and the MOI is a brisk 3.55. That makes sense. So what’s slower are the more expensive homes, generally. Entry level homes in the schools are selling at a healthy pace.
Interestingly, homes in the Campbell Union High School District are faring even better – and the data is inverted, slightly, as to where the sweeter spot of the market lies. For these homes, those under 1.5 mil are going at a quick 2.4 months of inventory. The market as a whole for Los Gatos houses for sale in this area is lower still, though – 2.23. That demonstrates that the market is even faster in the higher priced homes. My belief is that this is the case because those homes – high end homes in the CUHSD – have taken a bigger hit on pricing and buyers are responding. Cannot prove it in this brief blog post entry, though, but that’s my (hopefully educated) hunch.
What about your neighborhood, or where you’d like to buy? Get hyper local when you think about how “the market” is. Feel free to visit my Los Gatos Real Estate Report and see local sales in your neighborhood. Make it more precise by indating the beds/baths you want to consider, and how far out (in a radius) you’d like to see the comps, or how far back in time. Best part: you don’t have to register, you don’t have to leave a footprint. (Your search is not saved on my site, so I will not be showing up on your front porch!) Or call or email me for a confidential, no obligation, no-pressure consultation.
May 10, 2009
The Los Gatos real estate market is heating up, particularly in the homes that are most affordable (and featuring Los Gatos Schools) but noticeable in many areas and price points.
Below please find a graph displaying prices and sales (median and average) for single family homes in Los Gatos. This graph uses a 3 month moving average to level out any odd bumps in the data such as seasonal fluctuations.
(image from www.PopeHandy.ReReport.com, a subscription service of mine, and used by permission)
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) “months of inventory” in Los Gatos looks even more dramatic. Below, find the absorption rate for not just Los Gatos, but also Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, and the average of all four:
When looked at together, the overall trend becomes exceedingly clear that the market is changing.
Sellers, the market is better now than it’s been in many months. If your home is not getting activity, it’s time to get it in line with the market.
Buyers, it’s still in your camp in many markets, but your advantage seems to be slipping.
No one knows whether the market will continue along this trend or if this is just a blip in the Silicon Valley real estate market landscape. The threat of more foreclosures throughout Santa Clara County will be the thing which can tip this one way or the other.
January 21, 2008
Tired of hearing the doom and gloom regarding the real esate market? Most of that negative press is national news, not local news. Truly, it doesn’t impact home values in Los Gatos if prices are falling in parts of Florida, Vegas, or even in Sacramento. The local market – our town plus neighboring communities here in Silicon Valley – is the crucial one.
Things are just not that bad for home sales in Los Gatos overall.
That said, “the market” consists of several sub-markets. It’s one thing if you are trying to sell a very expensive home with an unpopular architectural style. It’s another if you’re marketing a modest or at least non-extravagent home in a good location with great schools. Still another if you have a view property…or a lot that could be split. And no matter what, overpriced just won’t work.
A view of the big picture in the Los Gatos real estate market reveals that 2006 was a lot tougher on sellers (and folks watching their equity) than 2007 was. The first three quarters of 2007 were remarkably good for single family homes, in fact. Have a look at the “months of inventory” or “absorption rate” by month for last year for single family homes. (As a point of reference, the National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months of inventory is a sellers market.)
For the condo and townhome market, it was even stronger. Once again, it was a little more challenging late in the year (not an unusual pattern for any year).
What about now? How is the inventory of homes in Los Gatos right now?
About one house in four is selling in this area overall. That’s pretty much the case in Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Cambrian Park. In Los Gatos there are 97 single family homes available and 27 sale pending (in Saratoga it’s 61 and 17, and in Cambrian Park it’s 140 and 34).
The condo market, which was much stronger throughout 2007 than the single family market, is now cooler than the single family home market in town. As of today, January 21st, there are 26 townhouses or condominiums for sale and just 2 under contract or sale pending. (So instead of a 1 in 4 chance of selling, it’s closer to 1 in 10.) In Saratoga it’s a little better with 10 available and 3 pending. In Cambrian there are 41 “class 2” (condo/townhome) on the market and 7 which are pending sales.
Every market presents an opportunity for buyers or sellers. Where’s the best real estate opportunity in Los Gatos now?
Late in 2007, it appeared to be an ideal time to be a “move up buyer” – to sell that townhouse and to buy a single family home. Now, early in 2008, the opportunity has shifted. It is now a great time to sell that single family home and to downsize into a townhouse or condominium.
The market is always changing and the micro markets can all be different from the general trends in the town. If you’d like to discuss your home, your neighborhood, or buying and selling, please send me an email or give me a call. I’d be happy to set up a time to talk with you about your unique situation.