Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. This post is updated every month or two. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after I ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the market might actually be empty in those tiers, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?

Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined

The overall MOI for the town as a whole with 95030 and 95032 zip codes shows a mild seller’s market, with post-summer cooling likely in what is a typical seasonal pattern. It is a bit of a mixed market when looking at the town as a whole, but less so when viewed by high school district or price point. We’ll see when the month is over, but already in many parts of Santa Clara County, the real estate market is returning to seasonal patterns with some cool pockets and some which remain hotter.

 

 

And here’s the same chart with data from last February. You can see that in mid-winter the inventory was smaller and moving slightly slower.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 1 - 95030 95032

 

Looking back farther, here’s the same info for last November – the overall absorption rate isn’t much different from right now, and inventory and sales are neck-and-neck. Almost exactly a year ago, the market doesn’t look too different.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

 

And a reference from April, when the market was red hot:

 

 

The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only

Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say).Houses for sale with Los Gatos schools tend to be more pricey than those in neighboring school districts. This isn’t just the schools, but is also a function of being closer to downtown Los Gatos. The lowest priced homes in this area are seldom listed for less than $1 million.

 

 

Once again, we’ll compare it against last February. While the overall market is moving faster today than in February, here we can see that for homes in the Los Gatos School District were moving more quickly in winter. While the number of sales hasn’t changed much, inventory has gone up in this sector.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 2 - LGSUHSD

 

From last November, again, not a ton different between then and now.

 

Los Gatos 95030 95032 LG Schools

Read moreLos Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

Los Gatos real estate market months of inventory by price point and high school district

December 17, 2013

Sorting out the local Los Gatos real estate market can be a bit tricky, but one of the best instruments for measuring performance is the months of inventory (MOI, or absorption rate).  In this article we’ll consider the MOI houses in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 by high school district and price point, since I believe those are the two main drivers of our residential real estate market.

 Also, this time I’m adding in the pending sales as an indicator of where the market is going, too – just to cover the bases!  Finally, since I did a similar study the first week in November, but without the pendings, I’ll keep those below the current tables for the sake of comparison. Overall, right now we have a brisk 2 months of inventory for houses in Los Gatos.  But homes in the lowest price point are selling far faster – at about 10 days of inventory!!  The MOI increases very clearly with higher price points, where it becomes increasingly challenging to sell.

Los Gatos all schools by price point

About six weeks earlier, it looked like this chart below -the MOI is now a lot faster (4.19 then to 2.04 now) as inventory has shrunk by about a third and sales have increased (21 to 28 now).  Perhaps most striking is the change in the luxury or high end market over the last six weeks.  It seems far harder to sell a luxury home now as opposed to then.

Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 all schools Next up – homes “in the schools” with Los Gatos High School, then those in the Leigh HS and Westmont HS attendance areas.  How will these numbers stack up compared to the town as a whole?

Please read the full article on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog

 

Los Gatos housing market: months of inventory by high school district and price point

April 02, 2013

Sorting out the local Los Gatos real estate market can be a bit tricky, as there are so many variables that can throw the analysis.  Among them we have to consider school district, price point, sometimes zip code, proximity to downtown, proximity to positive and negative issues, condition of property and more.  As one agent says, it’s a patchwork quilt!

Today let’s just have a view by homes in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 by school district and price point, since I believe those are the two main drivers of our residential real estate market.

First, let’s consider the town as a whole or on average. As of right now, there are 65 houses or duet homes for sale.  There are 22 which have sold & closed escrow in the last 30 days.  65/22 = 2.95 months of inventory. Not bad! Five or six months is a balanced market, less is a seller’s market – so right now there’s stronger demand than supply.

Los Gatos real estate - months of inventory by high school district

Please view the rest of this article on the Valley of Heart’s Delight blog!

Los Gatos real estate market for May 30, 2012

May 30, 2012

Months of Inventory for the Los Gatos Real Estate Market by School District and Price Point

 The Los Gatos real estate market is “hot” overall – but not equally, and certainly not in all areas or price points!  Yesterday I crunched the numbers from my MLS to provide for you the absorption reate or months of inventory.  This figure is calculated by getting the count of active listings (not under contract – some statisticians include pending sales as well) and the sales closed in the last month and dividing them.  If there are 3 homes for sale and 1 closed in the last month, you have 3 months of inventory.  What this means is simple: if no new inventory came on the market, how long, at the current rate of sales, would it be for buyers to “absorb” the current supply of inventory?  The shorter it is, the hotter the market. Five or six months is balanced.

Group One: The more affordable homes in 95030 and 95032 in Los Gatos – up to $2 million. Where it says “infinite”, that means that homes are for sale but none sold/closed escrow in thel last 30 days.  Where it says N/A, no homes for sale or sold. Have a look:

Los Gatos, CA real estate market - absorption rate for houses for sales up to $2 million as of May 30, 2012  - Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, Sereno Group, Los Gatos

What’s hot? Up to the $1.5 million point, everything in LG is hot!  The cooling starts at $1.5 mil in the part of down with Campbell or Union Schools.  For houses “in the schools”, the market remains strong up to the $2 million mark, where it changes dramatically.

How are things for the over $2,000,000 point?

Los Gatos real estate market absorption rate for houses over $2 million May 30, 2012 - Mary Pope-Handy, Sereno Group, Los Gatos.

Over $2 million, it’s anywhere from a balanced market to impossible to sell for Los Gatos houses on the market. Homes over $2 million are tough to sell if they don’t feed to Los Gatos High School.  But even properties which have LGHS as the school of attendance are challenged to sell in the upper pricing tiers.

 

Los Gatos Real Estate Report for April 2012 Sales

Prices are up for Los Gatos real estate sales! (Click on link for full data from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report.)

Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032) which closed in the month of April.   Things are looking up!

 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,350,000 $1,260,500 (+7.1%) $1,344,000 (+0.4%)
Average Price $1,431,940 $1,405,640 (+1.9%) $1,479,120 (-3.2%)
No. of Sales 39 38 (+2.6%) 30 (+30.0%)
Pending Properties 54 53 (+1.9%) 47 (+14.9%)
Foreclosures Sold 3 2 (+50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 3 1 (+200.0%) 1 (+200.0%)
Active Listings 78 88 (-11.4%) 50 (+56.0%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 99.6% 100.1% (-0.6%) 96.7% (+2.9%)
Days on Market 36 35 (+2.4%) 61 (-41.3%)

Los Gatos condominium & townhouse sales (click on link for more info)

Improvement month over month, but year over year the numbers are still down. 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $616,000 $565,000 (+9.0%) $715,000 (-13.8%)
Average Price $596,557 $590,294 (+1.1%) $768,500 (-22.4%)
No. of Sales 11 17 (-35.3%) 5 (+120.0%)
Pending Properties 21 15 (+40.0%) 13 (+61.5%)
Foreclosures Sold 2 2 (0.0%) 1 (+100.0%)
Short Sales Sold 1 2 (-50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 11 20 (-45.0%) 40 (-72.5%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 98.1% 96.8% (+1.3%) 97.4% (+0.7%)
Days on Market 63 78 (-19.3%) 108 (-41.6%)

The Los Gatos Mountains 

Softer prices prevail in the mountains….

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $662,500 $678,000 (-2.3%) $715,000 (-7.3%)
Average Price $589,750 $651,484 (-9.5%) $683,750 (-13.7%)
No. of Sales 4 8 (-50.0%) 4 (0.0%)
Pending Properties 16 8 (+100.0%) 7 (+128.6%)
Foreclosures Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 31 32 (-3.1%) 21 (+47.6%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 91.6% 99.6% (-8.1%) 93.6% (-2.1%)
Days on Market 190 90 (+112.0%) 144 (+32.2%)

Short Sales vs Regular Sales in Los Gatos Real Estate Listings

November 16, 2010

The real estate absorption rate, or months of invenory, can vary dramatically from one part of the local Silicon Valley real estate market to the next.  Right now in Los Gatos, though, it’s fairly stable or uniform.  The months of inventory are not terribly different between sale type & hope type in town.  It’s not like that in most of San Jose or Santa Clara County!  (Reminder, conservatively, 6 months is a balanced market, more is a buyers market and less is a sellers market.)

Houses in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5.78 MOI
Condominiums and townhomes in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5 MOI

What about short sales?

Short sale houses in Los Gatos, MOI = 5.4
Short sale condos or townhouses in Los Gatos, MOI = 4.5

This is really weird to have the short sales be selling so much better than regular sales.  In Sunnyvale it’s the complete opposite!  There regular condos and townhomes are selling at the rate of 4.42 MOI but those which are short sales are a whopping 16 months!

To get data and info on the rest of Santa Clara County, please visit my Silicon Valley real estate blog, The Valley of Hearts Delight.

What Is Selling in Los Gatos Now?

July 26, 2010

As of today, there are 163 single family homes (houses & duet homes) for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032.  In the last month, 29 homes in that same area closed escrow.  So the months of inventory for Los Gatos houses for sale is 5.62, very close to the benchmark of a balanced market, which is 6 months. (There are also 48 sales which are pending without a release clause, but not all of these will close escrow.)

Here are some quick facts regarding the 29 homes which have closed escrow in the last month.

List price to sales price ratio

  • the average list price to sales price is 98% (most homes sold for less than asking price)
  • 14 out of 29 sold for less than list price (48%)
  • 3 sold right at list price (10%)
  • 12 sold for more than list price (41%)

Distressed sales (short sales and bank owned homes)

  • 3 of the 29 were short sales (10%)
  • 1 of the 29 was bank owned or REO (3%)
  • distressed sales (3 +1) accounted for 14% of the solds

Days on market, home size and lot size

  • the average Days on Market of these solds was 48
  • the average length of escrow was 46 days
  • the average square footage of the homes was 2552
  • the average square footage f the lot was 15,788

Average list price and average sales price, median list & sales price, highest and lowest price of homes bought

  • the average list price was $1,460,754
  • the average sales price was $1,437,434
  • the median list price was $1,308,000 & median sales price $1,275,000
  • the least expensive home sold went for $800,000 (a 1 bed, 1 bath cottage)
  • the most expensive home sold for $3,550,000

Price Points of sold homes in Los Gatos

Most of the homes sold between 1 and 2 million dollars.  Here’s the breakdown by price points:

Over $3 mil = 1 home
Between $2 mil and $ 3 mil = 2 homes
Between $1 mil and $2 mil =  21  homes
Under $1 million = 5 homes

How fast are homes selling in Los Gatos?

The DOM was 48 as an average, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  While some homes sold only after many months, a number of them sold fast:
Within 1 week = 6 (21%)
Between 1 and 2 weeks =  4 (14%)
Between 2 and 3 weeks = 5 (17%)
Between 3 and 4 weeks = 2 (7%)

All DOM at or under a month = 17 = 59% of the sales.  So the odds are very good that if your home is priced right, it will sell in the first 1-3 weeks on the market.  The most sales of these “sold quickly” homes happened in the very first week.

What about all the homes that have not sold? What can the owners learn from this?  First, your best chance of selling is early on in the listing period.  If you get to the one month mark, the chances begin diminishing that you can sell without a price change.  Do everything you can to make your home turnkey and super accessible that very first week or two especially!

What is key to sales success is generating a good amount of qualified traffic, again especially early in the game.  In Los Gatos, having open houses and having the home open for the broker’s tour are both important (at least initially – less so after 2 or 3 weeks on the market).  If you are not getting at least 3 to 5 showings per week, you may have a problem.  (Disclaimer: this is “in general” and may not apply to luxury estates and certain other properties.) Having overly restrictive showing schedules makes it hard to show and hard to sell. 

For homes priced below $2,000,000 it is really not a bad market right now for sellers or buyers – it is pretty balanced overall.  In some areas there’s more competition then sellers would prefer, but in general these homes are moving when priced right, nicely staged and well marketed. 

Absorption Rates for Los Gatos & Monte Sereno Real Estate Market by Sale Type: Short Sale, Bank Owned, Regular Sale

May 26, 2010

The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market has been improving in recent months.  Below please find the numbers of Monte Sereno & Los Gatos homes for sale right now, both houses and duet homes as well as condominiums and townhouses, followed by the months of inventory for each set.  Six months is a “balanced” market.  Fewer is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  The months of inventory (or absorption rate) is one of the best ways to gage the market conditions overall.

As you can see, in general the market is “balanced” for houses and condos alike, both hovering close to six months, and is a seller’s market for distressed properties (short sales and bank owned homes).  The bargain prices found with short sales and REOs makes them the hot ticket of the market in general. Short sale and bank owned condominiums or townhomes for sale are the sweet spot of the Los Gatos & Monte Sereno realty market right now with just 1 -2 months of inventory.