Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

Low inventory is the main story in Los Gatos today. Here’s a multiple year view of single family homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 since January 2014 – I find this to be enlightening since any one year can be an anomaly. (As of today, inventory has ticked up to 59, which is still quite low.)

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 Inventory of SFH 2020-07-08

 

The ultra low number of listings is due to many factors, one of them being the current coronavirus pandemic and health & safety concerns. For a look at of how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market today, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market from the previous month, but the June numbers should be accurate.

What is selling best in LG right now?

Of the 30 single family home sales in Los Gatos in June on the MLS, none sold under $1 million, 6 closed under $2 million, 17 were between $2 and $3 million, 3 between $3 and $4 million, 3 between $4 and $6 million, and 1 over $6 million. The high end price point tends to be at around $3,000,000 and up for this part of Santa Clara County. The vast majority of what sold would not be considered luxury properties, even though in most areas of the U.S. these would be luxury price tags.

Los Gatos real estate statistics at a glance for 95030 & 95032

Next, data from the RE Report for Los Gatos (“in town”), in the Los Gatos Mountains, and for Los Gatos condos (only in town, none in the mountain communities). Below that are the live Altos Research charts, updated automatically each week. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices.

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

 

Trends At a Glance Jun 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,562,500 (+28.1%) $2,000,000 $2,600,000 (-1.4%)
Average Price $3,006,550 (+34.7%) $2,232,100 $2,745,390 (+9.5%)
No. of Sales 36 (+38.5%) 26 31 (+16.1%)
Pending 51 (+37.8%) 37 41 (+24.4%)
Active 57 (-1.7%) 58 90 (-36.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.8% (-1.2%) 100.0% 101.4% (-2.5%)
Days on Market 26 (+0.1%) 26 24 (+10.2%)
Days of Inventory 46 (-31.4%) 67 84 (-45.5%)

 

Prices saw a drop since March, but June numbers show prices are on the rise again and not far from where they were a year ago. The number of sales and active listings are up again from last month, and inventory is finally above last year’s numbers after an impacted spring market. The sales vs list price ratio is decent at 98.8%, but is lower than last month and last year. So the market still has signs of recent cooling, but appears to be warming back up again. Overall it remains a seller’s market in Los Gatos, possibly showing some delayed spring activity.

Read moreLos Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

The Monte Sereno real estate market

Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy
Ranch style home on Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy

The City of Monte Sereno is quite small, with just about 4,000 residents, so the number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small.

For that reason, the data may appear to jump around wildly compared to Los Gatos or Saratoga, which each have about 30,000 people living there. Please take these statistics with a tablespoon of salt, and be sure to view the Los Gatos housing market data to get a more accurate picture of what’s happening with Monte Sereno homes (just add a little to the price tag as homes there tend to sell for a bit more than LG properties).

Also, there are only single family, detached houses in Monte Sereno: no apartments, multi unit housing (2 – 4 plex), no duet homes (attached single family homes). That will be changing soon, however, as the old La Hacienda property (formerly an estate, then a hotel and restaurant) at Hwy 9 and Austin Way will likely become incorporated into Monte Sereno and condos or townhomes built there.

Also, this month’s data will likely begin to show the effects of the pandemic on the real estate market more distinctly than what we saw from March. To learn more about how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory from the prior months, but June numbers should be accurate.

First up for the market analysis is the Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices, not sales – so the median sale price here is much higher than the median sale price on the solds):

 

 

This chart shows a strong seller’s market for the first time in months. Market action is on the rise after a recent dip. This is relatively consistent with, though a little stronger than, nearby Los Gatos’ statistics.

Below is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Report (click to view the complete Real Estate Report).

Read moreThe Monte Sereno real estate market

Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. This post is updated every month or two. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after I ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the market might actually be empty in those tiers, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?

Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined

The overall MOI for the town as a whole with 95030 and 95032 zip codes shows a mild seller’s market, with post-summer cooling likely in what is a typical seasonal pattern. It is a bit of a mixed market when looking at the town as a whole, but less so when viewed by high school district or price point. We’ll see when the month is over, but already in many parts of Santa Clara County, the real estate market is returning to seasonal patterns with some cool pockets and some which remain hotter.

 

 

And here’s the same chart with data from last February. You can see that in mid-winter the inventory was smaller and moving slightly slower.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 1 - 95030 95032

 

Looking back farther, here’s the same info for last November – the overall absorption rate isn’t much different from right now, and inventory and sales are neck-and-neck. Almost exactly a year ago, the market doesn’t look too different.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

 

And a reference from April, when the market was red hot:

 

 

The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only

Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say).Houses for sale with Los Gatos schools tend to be more pricey than those in neighboring school districts. This isn’t just the schools, but is also a function of being closer to downtown Los Gatos. The lowest priced homes in this area are seldom listed for less than $1 million.

 

 

Once again, we’ll compare it against last February. While the overall market is moving faster today than in February, here we can see that for homes in the Los Gatos School District were moving more quickly in winter. While the number of sales hasn’t changed much, inventory has gone up in this sector.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 2 - LGSUHSD

 

From last November, again, not a ton different between then and now.

 

Los Gatos 95030 95032 LG Schools

Read moreLos Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

Average & median sale prices in Los Gatos

My RE Report stats come out between the 5th and the 10th of each month, but I like to get a sneak peak, so crunch my own numbers some of the time. Today I wanted a window into Los Gatos real estate pricing. First, here are the average and median sale prices for the Los Gatos market in the two “in town” zip codes of 95030 and 95032 (for single family homes):

2019-5-2 Los Gatos 95030, 95032 average and median sale prices

Next, the Los Gatos Mountains (MLS area 23, zip code 95033):

2019-5-2 Los Gatos 95033 average and median sale prices

Additional market info to follow in just a few days!

Comparing the Los Gatos real estate market to others

Market comparison_ Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, and Los AltosSilicon Valley real estate market comparison: Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Los Altos on the Valley of Heart’s Delight blog, SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com

Today we’re looking at the real estate market for houses in some of the “west valley” communities along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – areas where schools are good, crime is low, residents enjoy scenic views of the hills (or of the valley from the hills, depending on the location) and overall, a highly educated population not too far from Highway 85.

Please hop on over to my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog to check out how the Los Gatos market is doing as compared to Saratoga, Cupertino, and Los Altos.

https://sanjoserealestatelosgatoshomes.com/market-comparison-los-gatos-saratoga-cupertino-and-los-altos/

 

See also:

Cupertino real estate market trends and statistics

Pricing difference for Los Gatos homes “with the schools” versus Union or Campbell schools

Alta Vista School SignRecently I have noticed a couple of very high sales prices for properties in east Los Gatos with Union Schools, especially Alta Vista, Carlton, and Noddin schools.  It should be noted that ALL of the elementary and middle schools throughout Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, and the Los Gatos Mountains are very strong and can boast excellent school test scores, notably good parental involvement, and pleasant campuses. Even so, homes closest to downtown Los Gatos and with the Los Gatos Union School District have always sold for a noticeable amount more than those outside of that area. Often the delta is 10-20%, but it can very a lot.  On a couple of occasions recently, though, it seemed like at least some homes selling in the Union or Campbell schools are were gleaning prices more typically seen closer to downtown.

So I started to wonder – Is the gap between the two major areas (in the schools / not in the schools) shrinking?   Let’s see by running the numbers in the MLS for one or two segments of the market.

Multiple Listing Service study criteria:

The search I created was for houses in Los Gatos (not Monte Sereno or San Jose on the border),  zip codes 95030, 95032 (sorry, Los Gatos Mountains not included in this study); home age 20-60 years, lot size 6,000 to 10,000 SF.  These are “normal homes” and not luxury or estate properties, of course.

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 with Los Gatos Union School District
# of Listings:  9     AVG VALUES:  age: 34  years       days on market:  28   size of home:  1,798 SF  size of lot: 6,342   price per SF: $901.94
average list price:  $1,472,872    average sale price:  $1,480,000

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 with Union School District or Campbell Union School District
#  of Listings: 15    AVG VALUES:  age: 49 years      days on market:  22    size of home: 1,912 SF  size of lot: 8,416  SF  price per SF:  $712.23
average list price:  $1,245,033     average sale price:  $1,297,700

As you can see, it’s not really wise to use just “price per square foot” to compare these areas, because the age of the property and the lot size are significantly different.    I approached it also by trying to target just the sale price at about $1.5 million, but the data was so limited that I could not exclude newer homes or smaller parcels.  So let’s see what you can get in these two areas for that amount, or close to it.

Read morePricing difference for Los Gatos homes “with the schools” versus Union or Campbell schools

Los Gatos real estate market months of inventory by price point and high school district

December 17, 2013

Sorting out the local Los Gatos real estate market can be a bit tricky, but one of the best instruments for measuring performance is the months of inventory (MOI, or absorption rate).  In this article we’ll consider the MOI houses in Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 by high school district and price point, since I believe those are the two main drivers of our residential real estate market.

 Also, this time I’m adding in the pending sales as an indicator of where the market is going, too – just to cover the bases!  Finally, since I did a similar study the first week in November, but without the pendings, I’ll keep those below the current tables for the sake of comparison. Overall, right now we have a brisk 2 months of inventory for houses in Los Gatos.  But homes in the lowest price point are selling far faster – at about 10 days of inventory!!  The MOI increases very clearly with higher price points, where it becomes increasingly challenging to sell.

Los Gatos all schools by price point

About six weeks earlier, it looked like this chart below -the MOI is now a lot faster (4.19 then to 2.04 now) as inventory has shrunk by about a third and sales have increased (21 to 28 now).  Perhaps most striking is the change in the luxury or high end market over the last six weeks.  It seems far harder to sell a luxury home now as opposed to then.

Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 all schools Next up – homes “in the schools” with Los Gatos High School, then those in the Leigh HS and Westmont HS attendance areas.  How will these numbers stack up compared to the town as a whole?

Please read the full article on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog