June 14, 2007
The Los Gatos single family real estate market appears to be split, with some price ranges faring far better than others, but overall, it is clearly a buyer’s market. For the homes that do sell, prices are appreciating somewhat.
Since June 1st, there have been just 9 closings among single family homes. Of these, the average “days on market” was a brisk 15, with one house selling after 55 days on the market and another after 33 days – both of these, however, sold for significantly less than asking price, while homes that sold fast generally sold at list price or higher than list price. None of the closeds were under $1 million or over $1.6 million (average sales price was $1,376,865).
There have been 13 pending sales since June 1st (compared to an inventory of available single family homes in this same are of 101). Not one of the most recent sales is under $1 million and not one of the recent sales is over $2 million (there are not so many available under $1 million, wheras there are lots available over $2 million).
If we consider ALL pending sales, there are 20 to view and the range of all pending sales prices (not just sold in the last 2 weeks) is a little wider than with the closeds: 2 were just a hair under $1 million, one was a low $729,000 (for an “attached” single family home) (so 3 under a million, compared to 10 available) and four ranged from $2 million to $2.5 million (compared to 53 available). Most recently pending sales are priced solidly between $1 and $2 million.
So what are a seller’s odds of selling? Right now, for all homes priced under $2 million, about one in three. For homes more than $2 million, it’s about 16% (there are 9 pendings – not just since June 1st but generally – and 53 available properties in that range). You are most likely to sell if your home is the middle range between 1 and 2 million and if your property has Los Gatos Schools with no adverse conditions (high voltage power lines, freeway too close, etc.).
Sales are down 15 – 20% from a year ago, and sales then were down significantly from the year before that. Prices have been rising modestly but that doesn’t help a seller if the home doesn’t sell! Inventory is continuing to rise and appears that we are going into a deeper buyer’s market at this time. The market does ordinarily begin to soften around this time each year, so seasonally this is not out of the ordinary. But the number of sales and the narrow range within which they are selling is key. (And this quick view did not even consider school districts or other issues that can impact value.)
Sellers: This is not a market to see if you can “get your price”. You will be wasting your time. This is not a market for homes that are dirty, difficult to view, poorly staged, needing work, or overpriced. The real estate market is unsympathetic to what a seller wants to get out of the house (just like the stock market), and the market is the one thing that neither the agent, nor the seller, can control. If it is important to you to sell now, then you need to put your best foot forward on all fronts, from staging to marketing to accessibility to pricing – most of all pricing. (Most homes that do not sell fail to do so because they are overpriced.)
Buyers: If you are in the market for a luxury property, now is the time to move on it, particularly if you are an all-cash buyer. Another good angle for you is to find a property that needs updating and/or has been sitting on the market awhile, since the longer the days on market, the more likely you are to get a good price. However, the seller has to be motivated for that to happen – and in every market, there are sellers who will only sell if they get their price. Don’t assume that you can get a bargain just because the DOM is long. (But hey, it’s worth a try.) Understand that if you buy in the most desireable areas and with the best schools, and if the home is priced well and beautifully updated, you could pay $50,000 over list price to get that “shiney penny”.
For advice specific to your area, please contact me.