The real estate absorption rate, or months of invenory, can vary dramatically from one part of the local Silicon Valley real estate market to the next. Right now in Los Gatos, though, it’s fairly stable or uniform. The months of inventory are not terribly different between sale type & hope type in town. It’s not like that in most of San Jose or Santa Clara County! (Reminder, conservatively, 6 months is a balanced market, more is a buyers market and less is a sellers market.)
Houses in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5.78 MOI Condominiums and townhomes in Los Gatos, “regular sale”, months of inventory = 5 MOI
What about short sales?
Short sale houses in Los Gatos, MOI = 5.4 Short sale condos or townhouses in Los Gatos, MOI = 4.5
This is really weird to have the short sales be selling so much better than regular sales. In Sunnyvale it’s the complete opposite! There regular condos and townhomes are selling at the rate of 4.42 MOI but those which are short sales are a whopping 16 months!
Are there bargain homes to be found in Los Gatos (and Monte Sereno), as in a lot of short sales or bank owned houses, condos & townhomes on the market? These types of properties have been in far shorter supply in the Los Gatos area than in most of Silicon Valley (San Jose, Santa Clara County). Yesterday I logged onto MLSListings.com and did the research on the “Area 16” or Los Gatos – Monte Sereno real estate market – tedious, but interesting. (Area 16 includes Monte Sereno, consists of the 95030 and 95032 zip codes and a sliver of Campbell and San Jose, Cambrian Park – but is about 95% Los Gatos). Results below:
If you are a Los Gatos homebuyer, you’ll find that there are not very many distressed properties on the market.
Los Gatos Houses for Sale
Of the 142 active listings in “area 16” (the Los Gatos area, including Monte Sereno and an exceedingly small sliver of Campbell and San Jose – Cambrian Park), only 10 are distressed homes for sale (short sales and REOs combined). That’s just 7% of the available pool of Los Gatos houses for sale are distressed properties (4% short sale, 3% bank owned).
Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes for Sale
Among the condo market, about 10% is short sales and none is a bank owned property.
Pending & Closed Sales of Homes in Los Gatos
The pendings show a lot more activity among short sales – but will they close escrow? (Unfortunately a significant percentage of short sales never close. Buyers get tired of waiting, banks request things that sellers won’t do, such as sign a promissory note, or foreclosure happens prior to the short sale being completed – just a few of the reasons why the success rate is lower than with either regular sales or REOs.) Although about half of all homes in escrow are short sales, a look at the closeds over the last month belies that most won’t close – only about 3% of the combined closed sales in the last month are short sales. Fourteen percent are bank owned – still a small fraction of the combined market (12% are distressed properties).
Will the info (and percentages of sale type) be different if we view it “year to date”?It’s pretty similar in that the distressed homes in Los Gatos are a small pert of the market – among the single family homes sold in 2009 in Los Gatos, about 6% are short sales, 11% are bank owned homes (about 17% of the solds are “distressed” sales). Interestingly, the amount of recently closed houses that are distressed is a lot less than the year-to-date.
Among the condo and townhome market, year to date about 8% of the sales are short sales and about 5% are bank owned home sales (13% are distressed sales). For the current month, it’s a similar 12%.
The distressed element of the Los Gatos real estate market is significant but a minor part of the available, pending, and sold properties in the Los Gatos area. The lower prices of short sales and bank owned homes will have a negative effect on home valuations, but not nearly so strong as is seen in most of the San Jose area. Depending on your price point and location, there may be more or less of an impact on your home’s value (or the value of the home you wish to buy).