The Monte Sereno real estate market

Monte Sereno Stained Glass Click HereThe City of Monte Sereno is a popular community bordering Los Gatos, Saratoga, and the Santa Cruz mountains. It’s also quite small, with just about 3,500 residents, so tracking the real estate market trends for the area can be tricky.

The number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small and the data will jump around. Checking the Los Gatos market will also help, but the best pulse on the market will come from particular sales in particular neighborhoods.

Houses make up most of Monte Sereno – there are no commercial buildings, just a post office, city hall, and an elementary school. There are also extremely few residential properties that are not detached single family homes. We don’t track the condo or townhomes in this area as we do in other communities because there just wouldn’t be enough (if any) data for it!

First up for the market analysis is the Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices, not sales). This is updated automatically, so feel free to check this article weekly to see what’s happening now with list prices.

 

 

Below is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Report (click to view the complete Real Estate Report).

Trends at a Glance from the RE Report:

By the end of August this small city had only 5 closed sales and 4 active listings – so take any swings in data with a grain of salt. Despite those swings, Monte Sereno appears to be showing a fair amount of stability. Inventory and turnover have calmed a hair month-over-month with active inventory way down year-over-year.

Over the last couple of months the market has calmed down. Prices fell significantly since last year, a big change from the month prior when prices were up 10% year-over-year, and that was closer to 20% or even 30% in spring. Still, with so few sales the data is likely to have been sqewed some by a few extraordinary sales.

The sales to list price ratio tends to swing wildly with so few sales, but has remained over 100% on average for months. While the average days on market were stable month-over-month, the individual sales tell a different story – only one sold in under a week, compared to July where that was a small majority of sales.

With high demand and extremely low inventory, Monte Sereno remains in a strong seller’s market with clear cooling.

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,075,000 (-30.1%) $4,400,000 $4,990,000 (-38.4%)
Average Price $3,334,000 (-22.5%) $4,304,190 $5,255,830 (-36.6%)
No. of Sales (0.0%) 5 (-16.7%)
Pending (-22.2%) 9 (+40.0%)
Active (-20.0%) 5 12 (-66.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.4% (-7.0%) 108.0% 100.7% (-0.4%)
Days on Market 23 (0.0%) 23 61 (-63.0%)
Days of Inventory 24 (-20.0%) 30 60 (-60.0%)

MLS info pulled directly: the charts below all were pulled from MLS Listings.com

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Los Gatos real estate market trends and statistics

The Los Gatos real estate market has some mixed data points and it’s an odd time. Inventory has shrunk, sales have increased, but sales are coming it at lower prices. It’s a peculiar combination of a seller’s market but with falling prices. Los Gatos home prices are generally down 15-20% from the peak a few months ago. 

Realistic sellers are pricing their homes low and selling fast. Others are languishing. It’s a tale of two (or more) Los Gatos real estate markets. If a listing is overpriced, it simply won’t get offers close to list price.

As of today, September 8, some info on single family  homes in LG 95030 & 95032:

  • 44  single family homes are on the market in “Active” status – last month at this time it was 48 (of those, 4 are listed as “agent only, show”, and 3 are “agent only, do not show”). The agent only listings means that they are not syndicated to other websites, meaning 7 of the homes for sale will not be seen on places like Realtor.com, Zillow, or Redfin.
  • 7 houses are under contract but there are contingencies of some kind in place (could be loan, appraisal, property inspection, buyer to sell current home, seller to find a replacement home) – so those sales may not go through. It was 4 a month ago.
  • 20  houses are sale pending, no contingencies (this is a small number compared to the active listings) – it was 23 last month at my last update for this post
  • 29 houses have closed escrow in the last month, up from 19 last month. The trend had been toward a drop in sales, so this is a reversal.
  • The average sale price to list price ratio for these 29 houses was 97% (down from 100% for my August update) – this figure has been falling consistently

Multi Year Statistics: Los Gatos real estate market

Here is some multiple year over year Los Gatos real estate market data that I pulled directly from the MLS today:

Inventory

Inventory has fallen, making it a harder market for home buyers. Inventory in August is the lowest we’ve seen in recent history.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 Inventory

 

Months of inventory for Los Gatos homes for sale

If homes continue selling at the current rate, and with no new inventory added, how long would it take to sell off everything currently listed? This number tightened up significantly in August as compared to June.

 Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 months of inventory

 

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Blossom Hill Manor Real Estate Market

Map of the Blossom Hill Manor neighborhood of Los Gatos (east Los Gatos)

The Blossom Hill Manor (aka “the Manor” or “Blossom Manor”) is a highly sought after neighborhood with its close proximity to the well regarded Los Gatos schools, parks, shops, grocery stores and major transit routes.  Homes there are nicely maintained, many streets are tree-lined and there’s a good amount of community spirit and involvement in this close-in, walkable area. Explore the area more using my Google Map of Blossom Manor, or take a video drive-through of the neighborhood at my other post, The Blossom Manor neighborhood of Los Gatos.

In this posting, we’ll discuss the Blossom Manor real estate market. The real estate market in Los Gatos has been on fire like the rest of the Bay Area over the last few years, but there’s a great deal of variation from one area, price point, school district, age and condition of home to the next.  As you can imagine, the “fixer” market is very different from the luxury market.

So far in 2019, there have been 15 closed sales in The Manor. A few quick stats on those sales:

  • Average list price $2,150,343
  • Average sale price $2,207,518 (103% of list price)
  • Median sale price $2,060,000
  • Least expensive list price $1,589,000
  • Lease expensive sale price $1,775,000
  • Most expensive list price $2,749,000
  • Most expensive sale price $2,790,000
  • Average price per SF $1,114.61
  • Average days on market 16
  • Average living space 2046 SF
  • Average lot size 9,431 SF
  • Average age of the home 61 years

Of these 15 sales, 9 were over list price, 1 was exactly at list price (an off market sale – the only one not exposed publicly before selling), and the rest sold under list price. 

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Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district

There are many factors impacting the Los Gatos real estate market, including the price point and the elementary or high school district. This post is updated every month or two. Today we’ll look at the Los Gatos realty market by pricing tiers and high school district using the months of inventory as a data point. The months of inventory, or MOI, is the currently active (for sale, no contract or pending sale) homes for sale divided by the number of homes using the same criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

These numbers were run today using MLSListings.com and it’s possible that a few more homes will be recorded as closed sales or new homes added to the market after I ran these numbers. One other disclaimer: sometimes the number of closed sales is very low or is at 0. This can be for many reasons. In some cases, there are a few which are sale pending and simply haven’t closed recently. In other cases, the market might actually be empty in those tiers, indicating a possible lack of demand or inventory. That being said, what do the numbers say?

Los Gatos real estate months of inventory in 95030 and 95032 combined

The overall MOI for the town as a whole with 95030 and 95032 zip codes shows a mild seller’s market, with post-summer cooling likely in what is a typical seasonal pattern. It is a bit of a mixed market when looking at the town as a whole, but less so when viewed by high school district or price point. We’ll see when the month is over, but already in many parts of Santa Clara County, the real estate market is returning to seasonal patterns with some cool pockets and some which remain hotter.

 

 

And here’s the same chart with data from last February. You can see that in mid-winter the inventory was smaller and moving slightly slower.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 1 - 95030 95032

 

Looking back farther, here’s the same info for last November – the overall absorption rate isn’t much different from right now, and inventory and sales are neck-and-neck. Almost exactly a year ago, the market doesn’t look too different.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032

 

And a reference from April, when the market was red hot:

 

 

The real estate market for homes with the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District only

Now let’s view just the homes which are in the Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union High School District (or homes “in the schools” as locals say).Houses for sale with Los Gatos schools tend to be more pricey than those in neighboring school districts. This isn’t just the schools, but is also a function of being closer to downtown Los Gatos. The lowest priced homes in this area are seldom listed for less than $1 million.

 

 

Once again, we’ll compare it against last February. While the overall market is moving faster today than in February, here we can see that for homes in the Los Gatos School District were moving more quickly in winter. While the number of sales hasn’t changed much, inventory has gone up in this sector.

 

2019-2-12 Los Gatos Months of Inventory 2 - LGSUHSD

 

From last November, again, not a ton different between then and now.

 

Los Gatos 95030 95032 LG Schools

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Los Gatos & Saratoga real estate sales statistics 2005 – 2014

Today I’m able to share with you some statistics pulled together from MLSListings.com by Timothy Proschold of Sereno Group Los Altos (which he’s given those of us in Sereno permission to share). I thought my readers would really appreciate this statistical history of sales in Los Gatos and Saratoga from 2005 to 2014.

A quick, but important, note on the areas included for Los Gatos.  “Los Gatos”, as a mailing address and as an area searched on the MLS, now includes the Los Gatos Mountains (95033) as well as the “in town” or the unincorporated areas close to town with the zip codes of 95030 and 95032. (This is a recent change in the way MLSListings collects data – and it’s messing with us!)  In the study below, all three of these areas are included.  If you are looking at 95033, these figures will be a bit high, and if you’re considering 95032 or 95030, they will be low.   So while we often do compare and contrast Los Gatos and Saratoga, the gap in pricing will be more acute because of the more rural areas include.   Be that as it may, this is great info that I think you will find very valuable – and thanks again to Tim for compiling it for us!

First, the price per square foot for single family homes (SFH) in Los Gatos and Saratoga (these might shake out differently by school district, price point etc.).

Los Gatos & Saratoga Sales Stats (2005-2014)

Similar patterns overall, but Saratoga is currently making a steeper climb in housing values.

Next,  the median sale price and average days on market (DOM) from 2005 to 2014 for houses or single family homes in Los Gatos.

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Quick look at the Los Gatos real estate market

May 05, 2014

The Los Gatos real estate market is very healthy, with a strong sale price to list price ratio. As with the rest of Santa Clara County, inventory is extremely low, and that is pushing prices up. Today we’ll get a view of the market using just a few charts, but please click on the links for more info (or call, email or reach out to me if you’d like an appointment to discuss your segment of the market in particular).

First, a chart from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report (click on the link for more information).

Los Gatos Single Family Homes

Trends At A Glance Jan 2014 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price +23.7%$1,770,000 $1,431,000 +13.8%$1,555,000 Average Sales Price +34.8%$1,920,450 $1,424,850 +12.6%$1,704,850 No. of Homes Sold -17.4%19 23 +46.2%13 Pending Properties +31.8%29 22 +61.1%18 Foreclosures Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Short Sales Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Active Listings +2.1%48 47 -7.7%52 Active Foreclosures N/A1 0 N/A0 Active Short Sales -66.7%1 3 N/A0 Sales Price vs. List Price +0.8%101.1% 100.3% +1.7%99.4% Average Days on Market +136.6%74 31 +118.6%34 – See more at: http://popehandy.rereport.com/market_reports?formSubmit=1&searchtype=search&emailtype=search&period=1&report_description=Santa+Clara+County%2C+All+Cities%2C+All+Neighborhoods&area=15&cities=3048&locations=&yearmonth=2014-1&proptype=1&get_report=#sthash.H93BlIu0.dpuf
Trends At A Glance Jan 2014 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price +23.7%$1,770,000 $1,431,000 +13.8%$1,555,000 Average Sales Price +34.8%$1,920,450 $1,424,850 +12.6%$1,704,850 No. of Homes Sold -17.4%19 23 +46.2%13 Pending Properties +31.8%29 22 +61.1%18 Foreclosures Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Short Sales Sold N/A0 0 N/A0 Active Listings +2.1%48 47 -7.7%52 Active Foreclosures N/A1 0 N/A0 Active Short Sales -66.7%1 3 N/A0 Sales Price vs. List Price +0.8%101.1% 100.3% +1.7%99.4% Average Days on Market +136.6%74 31 +118.6%34 – See more at: http://popehandy.rereport.com/market_reports?formSubmit=1&searchtype=search&emailtype=search&period=1&report_description=Santa+Clara+County%2C+All+Cities%2C+All+Neighborhoods&area=15&cities=3048&locations=&yearmonth=2014-1&proptype=1&get_report=#sthash.H93BlIu0.dpuf

The Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Market

Next, the same information but for Los Gatos condos and townhomes:

Los Gatos condominiums and townhouses

 

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

January 11, 2011

December 2010 sales numbers in Los Gatos

December was a good month for sales of houses in Los Gatos, showing a dramatic 63% increase in the number of closed sales over the month before. Inventory was down sharply too, further increasing the odds of a sale in December.  With lower inventory and buyers jumping on interest rates as they began to creep up, it was a sellers market for this part of the Los Gatos real estate market.  For many more details, click on the link below.  A sumary of the number follows directly beneath it.

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends Report: Single Family Homes (houses & duet homes)

December 2010:  Sales increased 63.2% from the month before, and were up 14.8% year-over-year. Prices slipped in Dec 2010 with the median price dipping 13% from the previous month, down 15% compared to last year. The average price fell 7.4%, a yearly loss of 10.3%. Inventory fell 26.7% from last month, and was down 10% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,000,000 $1,150,000 (-13.0%) $1,176,000 (-15.0%)
Average Price $1,203,520 $1,299,320 (-7.4%) $1,342,370 (-10.3%)
No. of Sales 31 19 (+63.2%) 27 (+14.8%)
Pending Properties 39 48 (-18.8%) 31 (+25.8%)
Active 87 124 (-29.8%) 109 (-20.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.5% 94.5% (+2.1%) 96.8% (-0.2%)
Days on Market 69 75 (-7.5%) 59 (+17.2%)

The Condo market in Los Gatos is another story! December saw a slight improvement in market conditions but it remains a buyers market for Los Gatos condominium or townhouse buyers.  The prices (average and median) both slipped, as did the list price to sales price ratio, accompanied by a longer “days on market”, underlying the soft market.

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends Report: Condominiums & Townhouses
(aka condos & townhomes)

December 2010: Sales increased 12.5% from the month before, and were up 12.5% year-over-year.  Prices slipped in Dec 2010 with the median price dipping 7% from the previous month, down 7.4% compared to last year. The average price fell 6.6%, a yearly loss of 16.5%. Inventory fell 18.8% from last month, and was down 20.4% year-over-year.

 

Trends At a Glance Dec 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $520,000 $559,000 (-7.0%) $561,500 (-7.4%)
Average Price $493,267 $527,988 (-6.6%) $590,738 (-16.5%)
No. of Sales 9 8 (+12.5%) 8 (+12.5%)
Pending Properties 5 10 (-50.0%) 9 (-44.4%)
Active 34 38 (-10.5%) 40 (-15.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.2% 99.0% (-3.9%) 97.2% (-2.1%)
Days on Market 107 38 (+181.7%) 103 (+3.2%)

 

November 2010’s numbers for Los Gatos residential real estate sales – first for houses, then condos:

 

Trends At a Glance Nov 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,150,000 $1,080,000 (+6.5%) $1,360,000 (-15.4%)
Average Price $1,299,320 $1,305,570 (-0.5%) $1,412,730 (-8.0%)
No. of Sales 19 32 (-40.6%) 31 (-38.7%)
Pending Properties 48 45 (+6.7%) 46 (+4.3%)
Active 124 141 (-12.1%) 142 (-12.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 94.5% 96.4% (-1.9%) 96.2% (-1.8%)
Days on Market 75 33 (+127.0%) 63 (+19.0%)

 

 

Trends At a Glance Nov 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $559,000 $525,500 (+6.4%) $573,500 (-2.5%)
Average Price $527,988 $534,833 (-1.3%) $560,394 (-5.8%)
No. of Sales 8 6 (+33.3%) 8 (0.0%)
Pending Properties 10 6 (+66.7%) 10 (0.0%)
Active 38 44 (-13.6%) 43 (-11.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.0% 96.0% (+3.1%) 96.5% (+2.6%)
Days on Market 38 101 (-62.6%) 95 (-60.1%)

The real estate market will vary based on zip code, school district, price point, square footage of home & land etc., so this is only a very broad overview.  Information for your home’s segment of the market could be very different.  For instance, there’s a huge difference betwen the luxury home market and the entry level markets in Los Gatos.  Often there’s a big gap between a “walk to town” home and one that’s remote. So too with “sale type”: regular vs short sale vs bank owned. Loads of variables.  Please contact me for specific info on your area or part of the market.

Want a longer timeframe, such as annual or quarterly report, or the performance of the market going back a few years?  You can view the 2010 annual report, quarterly reports or view sales around any address in Santa Clara County (Campbell, Saratoga, San Jose and also areas of San Jose such as Cambrian Park or Almaden Valley) by visiting www.popehandy.rereport.com.

To see the most recent posts or articles on this topic, please click here:
Los Gatos Homes & Housing Market

Interested in selling or buying a home in Los Gatos? Please call or email me today!
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, Sereno Group
408 204-7673  mary (at) popehandy.com