A resource for folks living in or moving to Los Gatos, by Mary Pope-Handy

Stats

Los Gatos real estate market for May 30, 2012

May 30, 2012

Months of Inventory for the Los Gatos Real Estate Market by School District and Price Point

 The Los Gatos real estate market is “hot” overall – but not equally, and certainly not in all areas or price points!  Yesterday I crunched the numbers from my MLS to provide for you the absorption reate or months of inventory.  This figure is calculated by getting the count of active listings (not under contract – some statisticians include pending sales as well) and the sales closed in the last month and dividing them.  If there are 3 homes for sale and 1 closed in the last month, you have 3 months of inventory.  What this means is simple: if no new inventory came on the market, how long, at the current rate of sales, would it be for buyers to “absorb” the current supply of inventory?  The shorter it is, the hotter the market. Five or six months is balanced.

Group One: The more affordable homes in 95030 and 95032 in Los Gatos – up to $2 million. Where it says “infinite”, that means that homes are for sale but none sold/closed escrow in thel last 30 days.  Where it says N/A, no homes for sale or sold. Have a look:

Los Gatos, CA real estate market - absorption rate for houses for sales up to $2 million as of May 30, 2012  - Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, Sereno Group, Los Gatos

What’s hot? Up to the $1.5 million point, everything in LG is hot!  The cooling starts at $1.5 mil in the part of down with Campbell or Union Schools.  For houses “in the schools”, the market remains strong up to the $2 million mark, where it changes dramatically.

How are things for the over $2,000,000 point?

Los Gatos real estate market absorption rate for houses over $2 million May 30, 2012 - Mary Pope-Handy, Sereno Group, Los Gatos.

Over $2 million, it’s anywhere from a balanced market to impossible to sell for Los Gatos houses on the market. Homes over $2 million are tough to sell if they don’t feed to Los Gatos High School.  But even properties which have LGHS as the school of attendance are challenged to sell in the upper pricing tiers.

 

Los Gatos Real Estate Report for April 2012 Sales

Prices are up for Los Gatos real estate sales! (Click on link for full data from my Los Gatos Real Estate Report.)

Below please find the statistics and numbers for house sales in the town of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032) which closed in the month of April.   Things are looking up!

 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,350,000 $1,260,500 (+7.1%) $1,344,000 (+0.4%)
Average Price $1,431,940 $1,405,640 (+1.9%) $1,479,120 (-3.2%)
No. of Sales 39 38 (+2.6%) 30 (+30.0%)
Pending Properties 54 53 (+1.9%) 47 (+14.9%)
Foreclosures Sold 3 2 (+50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 3 1 (+200.0%) 1 (+200.0%)
Active Listings 78 88 (-11.4%) 50 (+56.0%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 99.6% 100.1% (-0.6%) 96.7% (+2.9%)
Days on Market 36 35 (+2.4%) 61 (-41.3%)

Los Gatos condominium & townhouse sales (click on link for more info)

Improvement month over month, but year over year the numbers are still down. 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $616,000 $565,000 (+9.0%) $715,000 (-13.8%)
Average Price $596,557 $590,294 (+1.1%) $768,500 (-22.4%)
No. of Sales 11 17 (-35.3%) 5 (+120.0%)
Pending Properties 21 15 (+40.0%) 13 (+61.5%)
Foreclosures Sold 2 2 (0.0%) 1 (+100.0%)
Short Sales Sold 1 2 (-50.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 11 20 (-45.0%) 40 (-72.5%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 98.1% 96.8% (+1.3%) 97.4% (+0.7%)
Days on Market 63 78 (-19.3%) 108 (-41.6%)

The Los Gatos Mountains 

Softer prices prevail in the mountains….

Trends At a Glance Apr 2012 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $662,500 $678,000 (-2.3%) $715,000 (-7.3%)
Average Price $589,750 $651,484 (-9.5%) $683,750 (-13.7%)
No. of Sales 4 8 (-50.0%) 4 (0.0%)
Pending Properties 16 8 (+100.0%) 7 (+128.6%)
Foreclosures Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Short Sales Sold 0 1 (-100.0%) 0 (N/A)
Active Listings 31 32 (-3.1%) 21 (+47.6%)
Sales Price vs. List Price 91.6% 99.6% (-8.1%) 93.6% (-2.1%)
Days on Market 190 90 (+112.0%) 144 (+32.2%)

February Statistics for Los Gatos and Monte Sereno Real Estate

Below, find list prices in Monte Sereno over the last year, by price quartile. Interestingly, the 1st and 3rd quartile appears to have been changing downward the most while the highest priced homes seem to be faring the best (remember, though, these are list prices not sold prices).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Now Los Gatos, 95030, where again the highest median list price seems to be holding better than other price points:
 

:Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And finally Los Gatos, 95032:
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

In this last group, it looks more clear that the higher the price point, the less the list price appears to be experiencing downward pressure.

Finally, Days on Market in these three areas by quartile.

Monte Sereno, 95030, is mixed. 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Los Gatos, 95030 – where it’s really not getting easier to sell a home, overall:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Los Gatos, 95032, things are not so dire as elsewhere – perhaps because prices are lower here than in the other two areas.  This seems to be born out by the fact that the highest priced homes are experiencing the longest DOM.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What about the role of school districts in all of this?

Much of 95032 is in the Campbell Union High School District.  So I did a little more crunching on my own, looking at school district rather than zip code.

For active listings right now in “area 16” again, here’s what I found for DOM (days on market)

(1) All of “area 16” with Los Gatos Saratoga High Schol District – DOM = 185
Same but a maximum list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 133

(2) All of “area 16” with Campbell Union High School District – DOM = 71
Same but a max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 66

(3) For all of “area 16” without regard to school district, the DOM = 152
Same but with max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 106

(Monte Sereno is 99.5% Los Gatos Schools with only the tiniest sliver falling into Campbell Schools.)

So this is a little surprising – we tend to believe that homes with Los Gatos Schools always sell better than those with Union or Moreland. But is that the case?

Let’s drill it down once more to a more specific price range and see, among the active listings, what’s happening.

Price range: $1,000,000 to $1,400,000. I added the average square footage of the home since the results surprised me and I thought this might be an important factor.

(1) LGSHSD – DOM = 100 (av SF = 1904)
(2) CUHSD – DOM = 42 (av SF 2826)
(3) All schools – DOM = 82 (av SF = 2185)

Within this band of pricing, it appears that the homes may be moving faster in the less expensive part of Los Gatos.  Why is this?  Perhaps because it’s taken a bigger correction and is now viewed favorably.  There could be lots of factors.  We could continue breaking it down by neighborhood, by age of construction, and many other factors, including whether or not something was a short sale or bank owned property (which is a separate topic).  It might also look different if we picked apart the pendings or solds this way, so this is not comprehensive, but is a general indicator that homes not in the most expensive part of town are selling easlier than those “closer in”.

For help with understanding the home you want to buy or sell, please contact me!

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Review for December and 2007

January 09, 2008

The numbers are in for December 2007 and the real estate market in San Jose, Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley, and Los Gatos, to name a few areas.

liveinlosgatos chart of los gatos homes prices vs sales - Los Gatos Real Estate Market Review for December and 2007

Cliff notes version: prices are holding, or even going up in areas year over year (this last December compared to the one before). But sales are decidedly down. So again, if most homes are NOT selling, it’s not much consolation that values are rising. It’s a mixed message, but that’s precisely what is happening. A great home in a great area with a great price (low) will sell and for “top dollar”. Anything less, no such luck!

If you would like DETAILED information on San Jose (and by district, such as Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Evergreen, Willow Glen, West San Jose, etc.) and the cities and towns that comprise Silicon Valley or Santa Clara County, including Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell, Santa Clara, Los Altos, etc., please visit my just-updated Real Estate Report. You will find monthly and annual information on all of these areas and more. And if you’d like a commentary on how to make sense of it, please download my newsletter, which is 18 pages long and in pdf format:
http://rereport.com/scc/print/MaryPopeHandySCCannual.pdf

Right now it’s quiet for many of us on the real estate front – and that is not untypical though I usually am busier in January than I am now! Things often pick up in February just after the SuperBowl. (At my house, we are cheering on the Patriots – you may know that I’m related to the Q there, so we are perhaps biased, but not too much.)

I would say to buyers: prices are NOT going down in the best parts of Santa Clara County. Interest rates are good. Inventory favors you. BUY NOW. Homes are not going down in price while you wait!

And to sellers I would say this: yes, prices are going up, but still most homes are not selling. If you wait, you risk having much more competition in the marketplace. If you’re ready to sell, get your home on the market NOW.

Each situation is different. Please email or call me for specific input and assistance. I do offer a free one hour consultation to prospective clients.

Happy New Year!

Mary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mary Pope-Handy's Valley of Heart's Delight logo

Mary Pope-Handy

Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805

Selling homes in
Silicon Valley, with
special focus on
Los Gatos 

and nearby areas,
including
Monte Sereno,
Saratoga,
Campbell,
and the San Jose areas of
Cambrian and Almaden Valley

Helping Nice Folks to
Buy & Sell Homes
in Silicon Valley
since 1993

 

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