A resource for folks living in or moving to Los Gatos, by Mary Pope-Handy

trends

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

January 11, 2011

December 2010 sales numbers in Los Gatos

December was a good month for sales of houses in Los Gatos, showing a dramatic 63% increase in the number of closed sales over the month before. Inventory was down sharply too, further increasing the odds of a sale in December.  With lower inventory and buyers jumping on interest rates as they began to creep up, it was a sellers market for this part of the Los Gatos real estate market.  For many more details, click on the link below.  A sumary of the number follows directly beneath it.

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends Report: Single Family Homes (houses & duet homes)

December 2010:  Sales increased 63.2% from the month before, and were up 14.8% year-over-year. Prices slipped in Dec 2010 with the median price dipping 13% from the previous month, down 15% compared to last year. The average price fell 7.4%, a yearly loss of 10.3%. Inventory fell 26.7% from last month, and was down 10% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,000,000 $1,150,000 (-13.0%) $1,176,000 (-15.0%)
Average Price $1,203,520 $1,299,320 (-7.4%) $1,342,370 (-10.3%)
No. of Sales 31 19 (+63.2%) 27 (+14.8%)
Pending Properties 39 48 (-18.8%) 31 (+25.8%)
Active 87 124 (-29.8%) 109 (-20.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.5% 94.5% (+2.1%) 96.8% (-0.2%)
Days on Market 69 75 (-7.5%) 59 (+17.2%)

The Condo market in Los Gatos is another story! December saw a slight improvement in market conditions but it remains a buyers market for Los Gatos condominium or townhouse buyers.  The prices (average and median) both slipped, as did the list price to sales price ratio, accompanied by a longer “days on market”, underlying the soft market.

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends Report: Condominiums & Townhouses 
(aka condos & townhomes)

December 2010: Sales increased 12.5% from the month before, and were up 12.5% year-over-year.  Prices slipped in Dec 2010 with the median price dipping 7% from the previous month, down 7.4% compared to last year. The average price fell 6.6%, a yearly loss of 16.5%. Inventory fell 18.8% from last month, and was down 20.4% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance Dec 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $520,000 $559,000 (-7.0%) $561,500 (-7.4%)
Average Price $493,267 $527,988 (-6.6%) $590,738 (-16.5%)
No. of Sales 9 8 (+12.5%) 8 (+12.5%)
Pending Properties 5 10 (-50.0%) 9 (-44.4%)
Active 34 38 (-10.5%) 40 (-15.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.2% 99.0% (-3.9%) 97.2% (-2.1%)
Days on Market 107 38 (+181.7%) 103 (+3.2%)

November 2010’s numbers for Los Gatos residential real estate sales – first for houses, then condos:

Trends At a Glance Nov 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,150,000 $1,080,000 (+6.5%) $1,360,000 (-15.4%)
Average Price $1,299,320 $1,305,570 (-0.5%) $1,412,730 (-8.0%)
No. of Sales 19 32 (-40.6%) 31 (-38.7%)
Pending Properties 48 45 (+6.7%) 46 (+4.3%)
Active 124 141 (-12.1%) 142 (-12.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 94.5% 96.4% (-1.9%) 96.2% (-1.8%)
Days on Market 75 33 (+127.0%) 63 (+19.0%)

Trends At a Glance Nov 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $559,000 $525,500 (+6.4%) $573,500 (-2.5%)
Average Price $527,988 $534,833 (-1.3%) $560,394 (-5.8%)
No. of Sales 8 6 (+33.3%) 8 (0.0%)
Pending Properties 10 6 (+66.7%) 10 (0.0%)
Active 38 44 (-13.6%) 43 (-11.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.0% 96.0% (+3.1%) 96.5% (+2.6%)
Days on Market 38 101 (-62.6%) 95 (-60.1%)

The real estate market will vary based on zip code, school district, price point, square footage of home & land etc., so this is only a very broad overview.  Information for your home’s segment of the market could be very different.  For instance, there’s a huge difference betwen the luxury home market and the entry level markets in Los Gatos.  Often there’s a big gap between a “walk to town” home and one that’s remote. So too with “sale type”: regular vs short sale vs bank owned. Loads of variables.  Please contact me for specific info on your area or part of the market.

Want a longer timeframe, such as annual or quarterly report, or the performance of the market going back a few years?  You can view the 2010 annual report, qua
rt
erly reports or view sales around any address in Santa Clara County (Campbell, Saratoga, San Jose and also areas of San Jose such as Cambrian Park or Almaden Valley) by visiting
www.popehandy.rereport.com.

To see the most recent posts or articles on this topic, please click here:
Los Gatos Homes & Housing Market

Interested in selling or buying a home in Los Gatos? Please call or email me today!
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, Sereno Group
408 204-7673  mary (at) popehandy.com

A Five Year View of the Los Gatos Real Estate Market (Jan 2005 to June 2010)

July 17, 2010

Today I want to step back and look not at the micro-markets but at the overall realty market in Los Gatos  from January 2005 to the present (through June 2010) and to get a sense of the major trends in our real estate sales.

Ratio of inventory to sales: One of the best ways to gage the health of the local real estate market is to check the ratio between available listings or inventory and homes closed in the last month (that ratio gives us the “months of inventory”). Below please find the numbers of listings and solds per month in Los Gatos beginning in January 2005 and going through June 2010.

Los Gatos Residential Real Estate Listings and Solds Jan 2005 to June 2010

The red bars above represent inventory (or available listings) and the yellow represent solds during that month.  While there are always more listings than solds, the futher apart they are the better it is for buyers and the worse for sellers.  When they are relatively close together, it’s more of a seller’s market (and worse for buyers).   You can see that in late 2006 and into early 2007 those two were at their closest – that was a strong seller’s market here.

Looking at the most recent bars on the far right hand side, which are for June 2010, you can see that sales are up a little but listings are up even more.  The net result is that it’s swung more into the buyer’s favor.   You can scan the last five years and see worse times, though, as in late 2008 and early 2009, when it looked like there was practically a moratorium on sales.

Also, if you find the bars for December for each year, you’ll see that the ratio between listings and solds is better (if you’re a seller).  What’s happening there?  Many homes are taken off the market during the holidays, but those which stay on have better odds of selling. 

Median Sales Price of Los Gatos Homes Sold:  The next big question that buyers and sellers have is how much homes are worth. Over the last 5.5 years in Los Gatos, we have seen our usually strong market take a bad tumble beginning in mid 2008 and then roller-coastering a bit from there. Overall, it looks like the “low” point is behind us, but it will take several more months of higher median sales prices for buyers and sellers to be confident throughout Los Gatos. (This is the town as a whole.  The market can be very different from one price point to the next – this is just a generalization.)

Los Gatos residential real estate median sales price Jan 2005 to June 2010

Average Days on Market: Finally, how long do homes stay on the market in Los Gatos before selling or being pulled from the market?

Los Gatos real estate average days on market

The average days on market are low for many months in the first half of this time period, but there are some spikes.  Just as the ratio of listings to solds is more favorable in December in the second chart, in this one we see that the days on market in December are usually the longest.   It is tempting to say that these homes are “picked over” but not every home that is available in December has been on the market a long time.   Conversely, the shortest months are often (though not always) in early spring – February through April.

This year, the trend for average days on market has been a bit up and down, but overall it’s better than most of what we’ve been seeing for the last two years.  The occasional months with spikes cause us to be less than certain, though, about recovery for this market as a whole.

Absorption Rates for Los Gatos & Monte Sereno Real Estate Market by Sale Type: Short Sale, Bank Owned, Regular Sale

May 26, 2010

The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market has been improving in recent months.  Below please find the numbers of Monte Sereno & Los Gatos homes for sale right now, both houses and duet homes as well as condominiums and townhouses, followed by the months of inventory for each set.  Six months is a “balanced” market.  Fewer is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  The months of inventory (or absorption rate) is one of the best ways to gage the market conditions overall.

As you can see, in general the market is “balanced” for houses and condos alike, both hovering close to six months, and is a seller’s market for distressed properties (short sales and bank owned homes).  The bargain prices found with short sales and REOs makes them the hot ticket of the market in general. Short sale and bank owned condominiums or townhomes for sale are the sweet spot of the Los Gatos & Monte Sereno realty market right now with just 1 -2 months of inventory.

April 2010 Real Estate Sales Numbers for Los Gatos Now Ready

May 06, 2010

My Santa Clara County Real Estate Report is now updated for the April 2010 sales

Countywide, there are now more pending homes than available homes for sale here in Silicon Valley!  But how about in Los Gatos?  The ratio is about half as many pendings to availables here, both for houses and for condominiums or townhomes.  (The list price to sales price ratio is also lower here – countywide it’s at about 100% but here, as you can see below, it’s around 96%.)

Get the full report for Los Gatos homes & real estate online.

Here’s the summary for Los Gatos houses & duet homes:

Trends At a Glance Apr 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,275,000 $942,500 (+35.3%) $955,000 (+33.5%)
Average Price $1,333,370 $1,235,480 (+7.9%) $1,035,330 (+28.8%)
No. of Sales 29 22 (+31.8%) 25 (+16.0%)
Pending Properties 60 45 (+33.3%) 26 (+130.8%)
Active 130 121 (+7.4%) 170 (-23.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.6% 97.4% (-0.8%) 95.0% (+1.7%)
Days on Market 70 89 (-20.6%) 54 (+29.1%)

And for condos and townhouses in Los Gatos (see the full report online):

Trends At a Glance Apr 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $692,500 $543,000 (+27.5%) $710,000 (-2.5%)
Average Price $683,625 $572,833 (+19.3%) $700,222 (-2.4%)
No. of Sales 8 (+33.3%) (-11.1%)
Pending Properties 19 19 (0.0%) (+137.5%)
Active 40 52 (-23.1%) 51 (-21.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.9% 101.5% (-5.6%) 94.5% (+1.5%)
Days on Market 56 29 (+96.1%) 74 (-24.0%)

To see the data, charts & graphs for listings and sales in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cambrian Park, Almaden, Campbell, Willow Glen or anywhere in Santa Clara County, please visit my RE Report online now!

How Were This Year's April Home Sales in Los Gatos?

May 04, 2010

The spring home buying season (or spring home selling season) is usually pretty good in Los Gatos, with April being one of the best months.  How was this year?  And how was it in relation to recent years in the 95030 and 95032 zip codes of Los Gatos? 

I ran the numbers myself – so every effort was made for accuracy but it’s not guaranteed – and also ran them in recent years dating back to 1998.  Additionally I provided the “average” so see how this year actually compares. 

For April 2010, there were a total of 40 houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses which closed escrow between April 1 and April 30, about 7% off the 13 year average of 43.  The breakdown was 31 houses or duet homes (close to average) and 9 condos or townhomes (30% fewer than average).  So this view shows that it’s a mixed real estate market with trend improving for houses for sale more than condominiums.

 April home sales in Los Gatos, CA, from 1998 to 2010

A look at last year shows a lot of improvement for houses sold.  And a look at the year before that, 2008, also shows marked improvement for houses on the market in Los Gatos.  Not so true for the condominium and townhouse sales, though.  Those sales continue to lag.  The condo market has been hurting throughout Silicon Valley because home buyers can now afford to buy a house and that’s their preference, most of the time.

To see how Santa Clara County did as a whole, please visit my Valley of Hearts Delight blog.

For help in buying or selling your Los Gatos home, please contact me today:
Mary Pope-Handy  408 204-7673 or mary (at) popehandy.com

February Statistics for Los Gatos and Monte Sereno Real Estate

Below, find list prices in Monte Sereno over the last year, by price quartile. Interestingly, the 1st and 3rd quartile appears to have been changing downward the most while the highest priced homes seem to be faring the best (remember, though, these are list prices not sold prices).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Now Los Gatos, 95030, where again the highest median list price seems to be holding better than other price points:
 

:Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And finally Los Gatos, 95032:
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

In this last group, it looks more clear that the higher the price point, the less the list price appears to be experiencing downward pressure.

Finally, Days on Market in these three areas by quartile.

Monte Sereno, 95030, is mixed. 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Los Gatos, 95030 – where it’s really not getting easier to sell a home, overall:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Los Gatos, 95032, things are not so dire as elsewhere – perhaps because prices are lower here than in the other two areas.  This seems to be born out by the fact that the highest priced homes are experiencing the longest DOM.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What about the role of school districts in all of this?

Much of 95032 is in the Campbell Union High School District.  So I did a little more crunching on my own, looking at school district rather than zip code.

For active listings right now in “area 16” again, here’s what I found for DOM (days on market)

(1) All of “area 16” with Los Gatos Saratoga High Schol District – DOM = 185
Same but a maximum list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 133

(2) All of “area 16” with Campbell Union High School District – DOM = 71
Same but a max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 66

(3) For all of “area 16” without regard to school district, the DOM = 152
Same but with max list price of $1.5 million – DOM = 106

(Monte Sereno is 99.5% Los Gatos Schools with only the tiniest sliver falling into Campbell Schools.)

So this is a little surprising – we tend to believe that homes with Los Gatos Schools always sell better than those with Union or Moreland. But is that the case?

Let’s drill it down once more to a more specific price range and see, among the active listings, what’s happening.

Price range: $1,000,000 to $1,400,000. I added the average square footage of the home since the results surprised me and I thought this might be an important factor.

(1) LGSHSD – DOM = 100 (av SF = 1904)
(2) CUHSD – DOM = 42 (av SF 2826)
(3) All schools – DOM = 82 (av SF = 2185)

Within this band of pricing, it appears that the homes may be moving faster in the less expensive part of Los Gatos.  Why is this?  Perhaps because it’s taken a bigger correction and is now viewed favorably.  There could be lots of factors.  We could continue breaking it down by neighborhood, by age of construction, and many other factors, including whether or not something was a short sale or bank owned property (which is a separate topic).  It might also look different if we picked apart the pendings or solds this way, so this is not comprehensive, but is a general indicator that homes not in the most expensive part of town are selling easlier than those “closer in”.

For help with understanding the home you want to buy or sell, please contact me!

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Update for January 2010

February 05, 2010

What’s the market doing?  As always, it depends on which part of the market.  For an overview of the Los Gatos Real Estate Market, my Silicon Valley Real Estate Report will update you by home type (house or condo/townhouse).  In January, how things seemed depended a lot on what you were comparing it to. Clearly it’s a lot better than a year ago – but we have far to go.Single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Los Gatos – prices are slipping (thought this isn’t the case in all parts of the Los Gatos real estate market), sales were up as compared to a year ago, inventory is still low, DOM is shrinking and the list price to sales price ratio is rising slowly.  So another month of mixed signals but clearly some “green shoots” of hope.
 

Trends At a Glance Jan 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $985,000 $1,200,000 (-17.9%) $1,672,500 (-41.1%)
Average Price $1,227,090 $1,382,760 (-11.3%) $1,557,390 (-21.2%)
No. of Sales 12 25 (-52.0%) (+33.3%)
Pending Properties 25 30 (-16.7%) 23 (+8.7%)
Active 93 87 (+6.9%) 163 (-42.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.4% 96.8% (+0.7%) 94.2% (+3.4%)
Days on Market 43 59 (-27.0%) 60 (-29.0%)


Condominiums and townhouses in Los Gatos – prices are rising (condos had taken the biggest hit during the corrections earlier, so this is overdue), days on market are still terribly long and everthing else is close to status quo.
 

Trends At a Glance Jan 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $675,000 $561,500 (+20.2%) $370,500 (+82.2%)
Average Price $679,251 $590,738 (+15.0%) $412,833 (+64.5%)
No. of Sales 5 (-37.5%) (+66.7%)
Pending Properties 10 12 (-16.7%) (+100.0%)
Active 48 36 (+33.3%) 55 (-12.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.9% 97.2% (-0.3%) 104.7% (-7.5%)
Days on Market 140 103 (+35.2%) 146 (-4.0%)

 To get the whole scoop on the market for Los Gatos (or Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley) or anywhere in San Jose or Santa Clara County, please click on the links above!

Monte Sereno Market Post on Valley of Hearts Delight Blog

November 12, 2009

Today on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog, I posted a long article on the Monte Sereno real estate market.  In places I compared and contrasted it with the Los Gatos & Saratoga markets, so readers of this blog might find that piece interesting as well.

The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Update, November 2009

How is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Faring? How Does It Compare to the Los Gatos Real Estate Market and the Market Two Years Ago?

December 27, 2008

Monte Sereno is a lovely, upscale residential community of about 4000 people. It’s located adjacent to the town of Los Gatos and the city of Saratoga, California. There are no businesses in Monte Sereno – just homes, the post office, and the city office building along Highway 9.

Monte Sereno shares some services with Los Gatos, such as police and schools. While Los Gatos has two zip codes, 95030 and 95032, Monte Sereno shares the 95030 zip code with Los Gatos. Some folks mistakenly think that whatever is happening in Los Gatos with the housing market is also reflective of the Monte Sereno real estate market. They are sometimes quite different.

We’ll now look at a few key indicators to see how the Monte Sereno real estate market is doing, and also how it’s doing compared to the same zip code but in Los Gatos. Graphs and stats are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription (and the right to republish this information), which uses current listing data (list prices, not sold prices, for instance). About once a month I also publish an update which uses information from the solds, and you may see that interactive report at any time by visiting http:www.popehandy.rereport.com.

I. Inventory of Houses for Sale in Monte Sereno

This first graph displays the trend of inventory among houses for sale in Monte Sereno, 95030. The four different lines are for the four quartiles, or price points. Sometimes they behave differently from one another, but here we can see that for much of the last year, inventory rose dramatically among all price ranges.

Monte Sereno Inventory of Single Family Homes for Sale

Next, a comparative look between Monte Sereno and Los Gatos inventory levels of homes for sale. While it makes sense that Los Gatos has more homes for sale (it has more households!) it is interesting to note that the rise of inventory has been more dramatic in Los Gatos than in Monte Sereno.

Inventory of Single Family Homes for Sale in Los Gatos and Monte Sereno, both with zip code 95030

A retrospective: how is inventory in Monte Sereno now compared to two years ago? (The chart says only 95030 but this is just from Monte Sereno.)

Monte Sereno inventory in 2008 compared to 2006.

II. Average Days on the Market of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno

Below, please see the breakdown by price point, or quartile, of the days on market for Monte Sereno this year. The lowest priced homes did not experience the same degree of a “dip” in the first half of the year that the higher priced homes did. It is interesting to note that the most expensive homes had the greatest improvement for the DOM (Days on Market) early in 2008.

Inventory by price quartile of homes for sale in Monte Sereno

How does this compare to the same zip code in Los Gatos?

Average Days on the Market for homes in Monte Sereno compared to Los Gatos, both with 95030 zip.

The patterns are pretty similar, but it would seem that for most of the year, it has been easier (faster) to sell a house in Monte Sereno than in Los Gatos.

Compared to two years ago, how do the DOM look in Monte Sereno?

Monte Sereno days on the market for 2008 compared to 2006.

As we had suspected, it was much easier to sell a home in 2006 than it has been in 2008. In fact, it looks from this indicator that it is approximately twice as hard to sell a home now, if not more, then in 2006. This has been especially grue in the last quarter of the year.

III. List Price of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno

Now we’ll turn to the number which home sellers care about the most: price. Below, please see a graph with the median list price by quartile of homes for sale in Monte Sereno this year.

Median List Price of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno By Quartile

Interestingly, the most exclusive homes have come down the most, while properties in lower price ranges seem to have adjusted downward the least.

How does this compare to what’s happening in the town of Los Gatos?

Median List Price of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno Compared to Los Gatos

It is commonly known that homes in Monte Sereno are a bit more expensive than those in Los Gatos, so the gap between the two is not surprising. That said, the way each has responded to the market is curious. While Los Gatos home prices (list prices) went down early in the year, they went up in Monte Sereno for the same time frame. In fact, these two graphs are almost completely inverse of each other!

Finally, how does the median list price of homes in Monte Sereno today compare to the list prices of two years ago?

Median List Price of Homes in Monte Sereno this year compared to two years ago.

This is another weird graph which almost looks like a symmetrical inverse from 2008 to 2006. List prices today are higher, on average, then they were two years ago.

In summary, compared to Los Gatos, Monte Sereno is faring better overall. The inventory is lower, days on market are shorter, and list prices remain higher than in Los Gatos. Compared to two years ago, it’s tougher to sell a home (and easier to buy one) in Monte Sereno: inventory is up, days on the market are up – but list prices are up too, an odd twist! In fact it’s an anomoly for most of Silicon Valley, but it does not mean that any one house will necessarily sell for more than it did 2 years ago. The median sales price is the point at which half the homes are selling for more, and half for less. So a higher median list price or sales price may simply indicate that more expensive homes are selling. That seems very likely because with the more expensive homes, buyers are less likely to be dependent on a loan.

For analysis of what’s happening in your neighborhood, or where you’d like to buy a home, please contact me. I’m happy to meet with you and go over your situation in person and in confidence.

How is the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Now?

May 02, 2008

It remains a buyer’s market in Los Gatos, but not as deep a buyer’s market as in many other parts of Silicon Valley.

Below please find links to reports on the local Los Gatos housing market, broken down by zip code and housing type, current as of April 28, 2008.  One of the most helpful aspects of the Altos reports is that it breaks the activity down by market quartiles, so that the activity in entry level homes, for instance, is differentiated from the luxury home market. Have a look:

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95030

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95032

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95030

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95032

These are care of Altos Research, which uses list prices (rather than sales prices). In a week or so we’ll have the data on solds in Los Gatos from April, care of another subscription I have, the Real Estate Report. Please check back soon to get that information.

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Mary Pope-Handy

Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805

Selling homes in
Silicon Valley, with
special focus on
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and nearby areas,
including
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and the San Jose areas of
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