The Monte Sereno real estate market

Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy
Ranch style home on Elm Park in Monte Sereno, sold by Mary Pope-Handy

The City of Monte Sereno is quite small, with just about 4,000 residents, so the number of houses sold in any given month will always be extremely small.

For that reason, the data may appear to jump around wildly compared to Los Gatos or Saratoga, which each have about 30,000 people living there. Please take these statistics with a tablespoon of salt, and be sure to view the Los Gatos housing market data to get a more accurate picture of what’s happening with Monte Sereno homes (just add a little to the price tag as homes there tend to sell for a bit more than LG properties).

Also, there are only single family, detached houses in Monte Sereno: no apartments, multi unit housing (2 – 4 plex), no duet homes (attached single family homes). That will be changing soon, however, as the old La Hacienda property (formerly an estate, then a hotel and restaurant) at Hwy 9 and Austin Way will likely become incorporated into Monte Sereno and condos or townhomes built there.

Also, this month’s data will likely begin to show the effects of the pandemic on the real estate market more distinctly than what we saw from March. To learn more about how Covid-19 is affecting the local real estate market, please check Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales on my other blog.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory.

First up for the market analysis is the Altos Research weekly profile for Monte Sereno (uses list prices, not sales):

 

 

This chart shows a slight seller’s advantage in the market, despite a steep drop beginning in the market action. This is consistent with nearby Los Gatos statistics.

Below is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Report (click to view the complete Real Estate Report).

 

Trends at a Glance from the RE Report:

Only four sales in April hardly makes up a useful pool of data! That being said, it’s a far cry better than last month or last year! These low numbers can throw off the whole chart, so take this data with a grain of salt. The sale to list price ratio remains high, though it dropped since last month, with prices up over last month and a steady active inventory. Low data means greater swings, but overall we can tell that the market’s fairly stable. It’s an active, though limited, market.

 

Trends At a Glance Apr 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,242,500 (+47.4%) $2,200,000 $4,050,000 (-19.9%)
Average Price $3,752,500 (+70.6%) $2,200,000 $4,050,000 (-7.3%)
No. of Sales (+300.0%) 1 (+100.0%)
Pending (-25.0%) 4 (-40.0%)
Active (-12.5%) 8 14 (-50.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.6% (-2.1%) 104.8% 96.9% (+5.9%)
Days on Market (N/A) 0 29 (-82.5%)
Days of Inventory 51 (-78.9%) 240 203 (-75.0%)

 

And from the month before:

 

Trends At a Glance Mar 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,200,000 (+20.4%) $1,828,000 $0 (N/A)
Average Price $2,200,000 (+20.4%) $1,828,000 $0 (N/A)
No. of Sales (-50.0%) 2 (N/A)
Pending (N/A) 0 (N/A)
Active (0.0%) 8 13 (-38.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.8% (-1.1%) 105.9% 0.0% (N/A)
Days on Market (-100.0%) 32 (N/A)
Days of Inventory 240 (+114.3%) 112 (N/A)

 

While so few sales don’t give us much to work with, we can analyze some. To dig a little deeper, I pulled up the four sales from March on the MLS and saw that 2 of them sold over list price and the other 2 sold below. One of the listings sold $287,000 over, or roughly 111% of list price. The homes that sold under list price took longer to sell and underbid to approximately 99.1% and 97.5% of list price. The lowest sale price was over $2.6 Mil and the highest was $5.85 Mil.

 

What about schools?

Something else to be aware of is that most houses are in the Los Gatos Union School District, but a small pocket of properties lies within the Campbell School District. Those with Campbell schools usually sell for a little less. Additionally, most of this city is within the 95030 zip code, but again, there’s a small pocket which is in the 95032 area.

Next, what kind of home is available to purchase in Monte Sereno now?

Monte Sereno Homes for Sale

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(all data current as of 5/26/2020)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.