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November 17, 2008

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Faring?

There are many ways of viewing the Los Gatos real estate market. One approach includes looking at the homes which are currently for sale, or the “active listings”. Altos Research, to which I subscribe, uses this data in analyzing the state of things for the realty market in various cities, towns, and zip codes. Today we’ll look at these active listings in all Los Gatos zip codes, both single family homes and condominiums, and view the data by price quartile whenever the trends seem quite divergent from one price point to the next.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Single Family Homes by Zip Code

First, let’s look at Los Gatos houses in the 95030 area. We’ll begin by viewing list prices by quartile.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Except for the highest priced homes, it seems that asking prices are close to flat in this part of Los Gatos. It doesn’t appear to be a market crash when these numbers are viewed.

Next, let’s see how prices are looking in 95032 among single family homes in Los Gatos:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Again, it’s fairly close to flat pricing now (after clear declines earlier this year) except in the most expensive homes, which really constitute the luxury or estate market, which looks to be having steeper declines. The luxury market in both 95032 and 95030 appears to be hurting the most.

And finally, the same type of data but for the Los Gatos Mountains (zip code 95033 – this is a broad area which is not actually in the Town of Los Gatos but instead is county area).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Interestingly, the luxury homes in the mountains seem to be holding their own better than those “in town”. It appears that all price points in the mountains are doing approximately the same in this realm.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Condos and Townhomes by Zip Code

The Silicon Valley condominium and townhouse market is often a little different than the market for single family homes, and this is true in Los Gatos as well as in much of San Jose. Below, please note the more chaotic path that pricing has taken in the Los Gatos condo market this year:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

And oddly, much different in 95032: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Although these two Los Gatos zip codes are quite different from each other, both have been seeing some rises from a low spot earlier this year. The 95030 prices are higher than they were at the beginning of the year in all quartiles. The 95032 prices are higher for the most expensive condos but lower for the bottom two quartiles. I believe that this is because of school districts – the lowest priced condos (except for The Commons, a senior condominium complex) are most all in the Campbell Union High School District rather than in the Los Gatos – Saratoga High School District. (All of 95030 is in the Los Gatos schools area, and perhaps half of 95032 is in the same district and half is in CUHSD instead.)

Inventory of Los Gatos Homes for Sale

Inventory of Los Gatos homes has been rising in most segments of the market. (There are no townhouses or condominiums in the 95033 zip code.)

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

The lowest priced condos in the 95030 part of Los Gatos seem to be getting absorbed decently – inventory has barely risen there at all this year.

Days on Market for Los Gatos Homes for Sale – All Zip Codes

Los Gatos Houses in 95030:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Los Gatos Houses in 95032 are seeing declines in the average days on market:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

And for condos and townhomes in Los Gatos, 95030, it looks bizarre, with lots of volatility and large ups and downs (not unlike the stock market of late):

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

Lastly, Los Gatos days on market for condos in 95032:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

So what can we say of the general trends in Los Gatos homes for sale? For most Los Gatos homes:

  • inventory is rising
  • days on market are rising
  • the condo market was faring worse earlier this year, but is improving now
  • the single family home market has been sliding this year, but overall, it has not been steep

How does this compare to nearby areas? The “median market action index” combines the key factors to come up with a market pulse (higher is in the sellers favor, and lower is in the buyers favor). If we look at just single family homes in the two Los Gatos areas plus Saratoga (95070) and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose (95120), it looks like “we’re all in the same boat”:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research

The two Los Gatos zip codes are now in the same place. San Jose is doing a little better and Saratoga better still. But the general trends for almost all nearby Silicon Valley real estate markets is a deepening buyers market.

Please call or email me if you’d like to discuss your particular situation.